Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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Crystal clear, thanks!
Oh ok, it looked like one from afar, guess I should look a little more closely. Katia by far is our best looking hurricane of the season.
Or a downgrade to a TS again. LOL
1 20.3 Irene 7 1.63 Arlene
2 10.4 Katia 8 1.60 Gert
3 2.95 Bret 9 1.50 Don
4 1.99 Emily 10 1.24 Harvey
5 1.84 Cindy 11 0.528 Jose
6 1.71 Lee 12 0.405 Franklin
Total: 46.1
Lol. Not gonna happen this time. I think she's angry about all her downgrades.
oh, by the way... did Katia developed such a big eye or dry air made it's way into iexpanding it
Yes, there is some dry ingestion occurring due to some shear, but not significant enough to really do significant damage, its just slowing the intensification period right now.
We live about 4 miles inland from OB AL. My eleven year old son was so excited that we were not evacuating anywhere. He would always get angry with me when he couldn't "see" the prior storms (as if this makes me a bad mother). What he doesn't understand is that in the bad years (for us) meaning 2004 and 2005 my five kids were between 4 and 11, so I hightailed every time.
Yesterday afternoon the were "watching" the storm and the wind and the rain absolutely in awe. Then it stopped. He looked up and said "that was really boring...it wasn't even scary!" I kept trying to tell him that the back end is worse and we would have that through the night. He didn't believe me.
The weather radio started screaming around 2 am, and I listened to the warnings. At 4:30 am the warnings meant us, so as I got up to wake them up and get them in the hallway, he ran slap dab into me as the lightning and thunder was so intense. "Okay mom NOW I'm scared. Let's not do this again!"
Just thought it was a reminder that even a minor TS can be very intimidating when it affects you.
In a way he kind of reminds me of some people on this blog...I can't wait...bring it on...etc. etc.
On a sad note, can't get in touch with retired friends just about 10 miles away where the tornadoes struck in Lillian.
Link
Considering how often we have had "500 year" floods in the Mississippi basin, I would like to see some of those states tap the Mississipi River on the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. Keep in mind that there is a "dead zone" in the upper GOM where the Mississippi River empties. Texas would have benefitted quite a bit if they where to have large reservoirs from Mississipi River fed water. This would have been a perfect year to turn on the flood gates so other states could tap into this excess water. A truly win win situation.
Why do we talk about putting in a pipleline from the Canadian Oil Sands all the way down to Texas but ignore the other scarce resource - fresh water?
Katia went through what appeared to be a very quick eye-wall replacement. Every storm is different, some hurricanes have taken 3 or 4 days to go through eye-wall replacement, others much quicker. I'm not for sure if that's what has occurred with Katia, but that appears to be the case, for there was a much smaller eye-wall that appeared to collapse overnight now a much larger eye-wall has developed and dry sinking air in the eye is showing that Katia is recovering quite quickly, since dry, sinking air in the eye-wall is a sign of improved organization.
We will tomorrow.
... I should not have laughed so hard at that sign. Clearly I am a terrible, terrible person.
Oh, my poor state.
Both are needed and this country should do that.
Link really gives a good view of the sinking dry air over Texas forced by Lee pulling moisture up from the Golf.
Basically, water *is* economics. State legislatures won't usually approve basin transfers for fear that they're cutting off their own economic growth down the road. Lawsuits always ensue, either from downriver cities or environmental groups.
You may as well ask the other states to just give money to Texas to build desalination plants. It'd be about as easy to persude them.
No Austin is not in the clear. Fire has already claimed 2 lives. A woman and 18 month old child were killed when they could not get out of their home. Fire over took them in the community of Gladewater.
Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...
.STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
House burning in Bastrop. This is one of aprox 335 houses that have been damaged or destroyed in the area.
Link
We got it too here in Pasco. Came quickly from the south and dumped a lot of water. Blue sky now with occasional breeze.
.SERN STATES TODAY/TNGT...
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER PARTS OF
AL AND GA LATER TODAY AS MODEST SFC HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR OF REMNANT T.D. LEE. CONTINUED
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM THAT ALREADY WAS OF HYBRID
ORIGIN WILL STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY BROADEN ASSOCIATED SSWLY
LLJ...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. AT THE SAME
TIME...700-500 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KTS AS UPR CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO ELONGATE.
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE MAY FOCUS IN SEVERAL AREAS INCLUDING /1/ ALONG
NWD-MOVING CSTL BOUNDARY NOW OVER SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.../2/
ALONG DEVELOPING N/S CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW ALONG THE MS-AL
BORDER...AND /3/ ALONG AXIS OF LOW LVL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
WSW-ENE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF AL AND GA. EACH OF THESE AXES MAY SERVE
TO CONCENTRATE STORM/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH MOIST LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FOSTERING SPORADIC EPISODES OF MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE CSTL
BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN...WHERE THE
LARGEST LOW LVL HODOGRAPHS WILL COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF GREATEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SCTD SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND
ALSO MAY OCCUR.
Bingo... which is exactly the reason why Canada has not offered.. nor will ever offer to put in water pipelines. Once you put one in.. you are obligated to maintain the flow.. regardless of your own situation.
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 5
Location: 24.6°N 63.3°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011
...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
Maybe she's pumping the ridge>
: ) (Smiles and sarcasm intended0
and I thought it was a major cane
Gladewater is east of Dallas, not in the Austin area. But the point remains the whole area around Austin (and wider) is under threat right now, folks should stay tuned in to their local news and emergency broadcasts.
Been catching updates from the TX Hill Country website, glad your daughter's home is okay, sorry about the ex's place and heard from THC's posts that Bastrop received help from Austin to evacuate their humane society (can't forget the animals!)
We heard sirens all around on Saturday here in Rockport, not sure if it was fire trucks or other emergency vehicles.
ULLETIN? That's a first...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011
KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND NOW
HAS A 30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO
T5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE AT T5.5.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING RAISED TO 95 KT.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT...BUT THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS
310/11 KT. KATIA IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND TOWARDS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS. ALTHOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHARP RE-CURVATURE BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH GREATER-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR THIS CYCLE...THE GUIDANCE IS BOUNDED BY THE
SLOWER-MOVING ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THE FASTER-MOVING GFS. IF
TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TODAY...I WOULD EXPECT
THE 12Z GUIDANCE TO SHOW LESS SPREAD AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEING SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR KATIA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES THAT DO NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAINS THE
INTENSITY THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4
AND 5 AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS KATIA MOVES OVER EVEN
LESS CONDUCIVE OCEAN WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS
EXPANDED A BIT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 24.6N 63.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 25.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 65.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 28.1N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.2N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 37.0N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 40.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
I fixed that. LOL.
truly devastating, hopefully the winds relax and fire fighters can save everyone else's homes. It will make it only makes it worse that there have been flooding rains just a couple hundred miles away.
Prayers your way, we are in SE Texas, but my husband is from the Hill Country. His uncle evacuated last night.
My daughter lives in the Boerne Tx. area in the hill country. Her place is surrounded by woods (undeveloped land).
Any fires near that area?
huh?
The other one, down in sw carb. that a few models are cooking up, may also head in that general direction, but with a few land masses in it's way, ie cuba, FL etc
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