Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.

Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.

The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.

Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
These models are moving further South on each run





They're migrating home, to South Beach.
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Quoting Relix:


They what would you call that convection blow up?


She isn't happy right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think so. Nate is destined for Mexico to the West of its current position IMO. Very weak steering where it is now.



That's too bad. I'm wondering what will eventually end the tragedy going on there with the all the drought and fires. Maybe they'll get a couple of good TS's before season ends. Precip is off the chart low.

Glad I caught you. Was just peeking in this evening. Appreciate the comments. Hope the family and the golf game are all well! :)

Catch up with you soon! Have a good evening, Kman and all. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think I'm in my right mind :)


Ehh...
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Quoting luigi18:


where are you bvi?


St Maarten, in the Leewards
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6425
Quoting Grothar:
These models are moving further South on each run





With the models like that, South Florida will be in the error cone come 11 pm.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't worry, not everyone here goes around screaming troll, lol. Although I do get upset with foolish posting often, I still give those I am even very upset by, a chance. I only put those on ignore whom Ive seen that have specifically come here to cause tropical. However, even those who are annoying to me, that I may confront, I still give them a chance, because we are all a little odd, and have issues, being human. Right?



Indeed. What a boring world this would be if we weren't different.
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Quoting WxLogic:
00Z NAM 500MB Init:



Nate within the COL

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968. txjac
Kman ...where in Mexico do you think it will go in at?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2569
These models are moving further South on each run



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26879
Quoting jrweatherman:


I'm 14 years old. I'm not old enough to be in my right mind.


I think I'm in my right mind :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
965. Relix
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No she doesn't.


They what would you call that convection blow up?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
I'm off, play say everyone!
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Quoting PcolaDan:

From you, not for you. We remember the run to 10,000. LOL



yup
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Quoting kmanislander:


Not an unreasonable forecast as Maria has all the convection to the N of the center.


Yes, with disorganized systems like MARIA, the worst weather is not necessarily near the center. However MARIA could organize more quicky than expected.. and do what Dr Master suggests. I find that very interesting to watch.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6425
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think so. Nate is destined for Mexico to the West of its current position IMO. Very weak steering where it is now.


I'm beginning to think that to. I sure was hoping but it just isn't our year I believe. Sigh...
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I'm 14 years old. I'm not old enough to be in my right mind.


That's a load of crap, look at MiamiHurricanes09.. he's your age. He's an absolutely excellent member of the community who respects and worries for the people who live in the areas that are effected by hurricanes.
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Maybe we will get some half time chatter from Patrap?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Aww, I'm not a troll! I was just clowning. Eh, see what happens when your post count is low, people don't trust ya.


Don't worry, not everyone here goes around screaming troll, lol. Although I do get upset with foolish posting often, I still give those I am even very upset by, a chance. I only put those on ignore whom Ive seen that have specifically come here to cause tropical. However, even those who are annoying to me, that I may confront, I still give them a chance, because we are all a little odd, and have issues, being human. Right?

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Quoting thesituation:
In Eskimo, Moose = NuK ULs


Ask Grandpaw.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, K'man! I'm sure you've plenty of friends in Texas, see any chance of them getting some rain from Nate? They sure need it. An administrator client of mine owns a home and property there, he had to catch a flight out today to get to it with fire nearing two miles from his home.


I don't think so. Nate is destined for Mexico to the West of its current position IMO. Very weak steering where it is now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15879
Quoting Relix:


Well she does look pissed.


No she doesn't.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm at 18N 63W. The local weather office is forecasting very heavy rain within severe thunderstoms, sustained TS force winds with gusts near 60-65MPH, and a dangerous sea. They expect the weather to deteriorate tomorow evening and peaking saturay morning. We should see what happens. Anyway I'm feeling excited about that!


where are you bvi?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
Quoting jrweatherman:


I hear ya. I live in St. Petersburg and it seems like FL is always talked about a good hit and then they either go east or west. We need a good hurricane right now.


WOW.....

I am just 30 miles north of you, and I cannot believe you would say that. We have been inundated with precip for the last few weeks. Not only that, who in their right mind would want, let alone "need" a hurricane. The only State I can think of is TX at the moment...and they truly need some type of storm, short of a Hurricane.
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950. Relix
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nobody.


Well she does look pissed.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
gro - can you post it a little larger?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting PcolaDan:

A tip from Taz: to boost your post count, post a gazillion posts of nothing but letters, or numbers, or dots, or dashes, or anything, in your own blog. :)

Sweet!!!
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26879
Quoting Relix:
Who pissed off Maria?


Nobody.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Maria looks ugly on WV...



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Quoting CybrTeddy:


OH REALLY? You'd take a 'good hurricane' then by all means, strap yourself in the way of one.

I've seen my fair share of hurricanes.

Isabel, Charely, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and then Wilma. ALL in 3 consecutive years I have been in the eyewall of a hurricane. Is it a fun experience? no.


Just ignore Teddy, ignore. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm at 18N 63W. The local weather office is forecasting very heavy rain within severe thunderstoms, sustained TS force winds with gusts near 60-65MPH, and a dangerous sea. They expect the weather to deteriorate tomorow evening and peaking saturay morning. You should see what happens. Anyway I'm feeling excited about that!


Not an unreasonable forecast as Maria has all the convection to the N of the center.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15879
As a relocated cheesehead I am liking this game.

But back to weather.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

MARIA....is very ugly.


Are you feared?
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Quoting EricSFL:


she looks like she is wake up again?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
Quoting Tazmanian:




noted

From you, not for you. We remember the run to 10,000. LOL
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I'll take a good hurricane and I guarantee that I am speaking for 99% of the people on this blog. Even though many won't admit it.


OH REALLY? You'd take a 'good hurricane' then by all means, strap yourself in the way of one.

I've seen my fair share of hurricanes.

Isabel, Charely, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and then Wilma. ALL in 3 consecutive years I have been in the eyewall of a hurricane. Is it a fun experience? no.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


The ridge had been building in behind Katia and that has been the root cause of the fast forward speed.



Thanks, K'man! I'm sure you've plenty of friends in Texas, see any chance of them getting some rain from Nate? They sure need it. An administrator client of mine owns a home and property there, he had to catch a flight out today to get to it with fire nearing two miles from his home.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We're all going to be DOOMED if we don't get back on topic :P

MARIA....is very ugly.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Hello, Taz! Are we doom yet? ;)


We're all going to be DOOMED if we don't get back on topic :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting kmanislander:


The convective blow up with Maria is probably packing gusts near 50 mph. Warnings or not tomorrow will probably be a rough day from 14 N and up as Maria will likely enter the Caribbean near that latitude.


I'm at 18N 63W. The local weather office is forecasting very heavy rain within severe thunderstoms, sustained TS force winds with gusts near 60-65MPH, and a dangerous sea. They expect the weather to deteriorate tomorow evening and peaking saturday morning. We should see what happens. Anyway I'm feeling excited about that!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6425
Quoting PcolaDan:

A tip from Taz: to boost your post count, post a gazillion posts of nothing but letters, or numbers, or dots, or dashes, or anything, in your own blog. :)




noted
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Pack scores again!
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Quoting sunlinepr:


They posted the same photo twice with diff. accounts...

I won't notice it now, because they are blocked...


How can you tell if they (or anyone) are blocked?
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Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Aww, I'm not a troll! I was just clowning. Eh, see what happens when your post count is low, people don't trust ya.

A tip from Taz: to boost your post count, post a gazillion posts of nothing but letters, or numbers, or dots, or dashes, or anything, in your own blog. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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