Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cv season will draw to a close in two weeks and a bit yes but then we could get the real killers in the fall from nw sw carb boc in the gom and sw atlantic north of antilles east of fla all the bahaman waters
most of those are trackers from the sw to the ne and history shows some can be quite powerful even strongest of entire season yet to come
It's incredible to think that we still have half a season yet to go... I remember growing up that we never used the M-storm name.... You could make a mythical storm named Martha and have it destroy everything, and nobody would be reminded of some storm they had made it through... Now M - Maria - is the 1/2 way mark of the season!

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS continues to give support for Caribbean mischief in about 10 days. Number one reason why? Your guys' cold outbreak in the southeast US.



And I'm going to love it :)

How's the weather in Alaska?
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BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Sloppy Maria will miss the US, Watch area south of 30 north, west of 70 west, east of 85 west for problems week of 18th
10 hours ago
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Quoting bswigg:
A moment of Silence for all on Sept 11th....
someone i knew was on their way to logan, and got hit by a car, they only had minor injuries, and He missed his flight, Flight 11.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
The conveyor belt is fading...



Cape Verde season should be wrapping up soon.
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Will someone post JB"s tweet for those of us not on twitter?
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12z GFS continues to give support for Caribbean mischief in about 10 days. Number one reason why? Your guys' cold outbreak in the southeast US.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol. Put it on your roof :P


I went through the same thing. I finally put mine on the roof (wired - Maximum).
Used a bracket with concrete screws attached to concrete shingles. Then I used cement to really secure the pole.

The only issue with a roof mount is you need to get the anemometer well up above the roof (peak) to get unobstructed windflow.
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Max rainfall so far:

4.1"
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Quoting sunlinepr:
The conveyor belt is fading...



Not done yet...
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Quoting sunlinepr:
The conveyor belt is fading...



About time for some more "home grown mischeif." Texas will eat whatever comes...
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Quoting sunlinepr:
The conveyor belt is fading...



She might pop out one more..
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Maria on radar.
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The conveyor belt is fading...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
Quoting Levi32:


He's catching on. I wondered when he finally would.


You and Joe are just two peas in a pod. Lol.
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Levi32 "I wanted to but slept too much again. I'll have an update tomorrow."

Ain't no such thing as sleeping too much in college when majoring in the hard Sciences.
Your brain needs the "down"time to process&store all of the new info...
...and, even more importantly, to rewire itself in the new ways of thinking.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Very close to PR... Moving W in the last frames...



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol. Put it on your roof :P


You beat me to that one...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cv season will draw to a close in two weeks and a bit yes but then we could get the real killers in the fall from nw sw carb boc in the gom and sw atlantic north of antilles east of fla all the bahaman waters
most of those are trackers from the sw to the ne and history shows some can be quite powerful even strongest of entire season yet to come




There's many more on the list but here are a few.. So to think hurricane season is over, well.. not so much..
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Quoting Wunderwood:
Check out Joe Bastardi's tweet about the Caribbean during the week of the 18th.


Post it..?
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Quoting Wunderwood:
Check out Joe Bastardi's tweet about the Caribbean during the week of the 18th.


He's catching on. I wondered when he finally would.
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We can thank Texas for sucking the life out of at least two storms this year si far. Wish I could send rain there way!
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Quoting charlottefl:


I'm having an issue finding a spot to mount my anemometer. The yard is well, not very open, so I've moved it about 20 times to no avail. Move #21 probably sometime this week, maybe I'll eventually find a good spot for it ...lol


lol. Put it on your roof :P
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Happy Birthday Dr. Masters
Remembering 911.....Peace to all
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:



Here's what late October can look like.



I just don't see that happening this year with the way these storms are having a hard time getting going.
I think tropical storm out to the north east. Very similar to what the latest GFS is showing
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Happy Birthday Dr. M.
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Check out Joe Bastardi's tweet about the Caribbean during the week of the 18th.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, but it is close.


I'm having an issue finding a spot to mount my anemometer. The yard is well, not very open, so I've moved it about 20 times to no avail. Move #21 probably sometime this week, maybe I'll eventually find a good spot for it ...lol
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Quoting yoboi:
hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that
cv season will draw to a close in two weeks and a bit yes but then we could get the real killers in the fall from nw sw carb boc in the gom and sw atlantic north of antilles east of fla all the bahaman waters
most of those are trackers from the sw to the ne and history shows some can be quite powerful even strongest of entire season yet to come
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM NATE...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
===================================
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...NATE MOVING INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ...EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 97.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM E OF POZA RICA MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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90. MZT
I'm just glad to see Maria stuggling and likely to move away from the US. I have gutter work planned at one of my rentals this Thursday. Now to cross my fingers until mid-October when I can plan update another one.
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Quoting charlottefl:


Is that your station?


No, but it is close.
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12Z GFS precipitation forecast for the USA through 9/19/2011:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


This is ours:



Should see the high temperatures fall quite a bit come the weekend, when highs below 80F are expected.


Is that your station?
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Nice moist flow setting up in the Caribbean. Is this a sign of things to come. I think so.


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Quoting yoboi:
hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that



Here's what late October can look like.

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Quoting charlottefl:
Our low temps have come down quite a bit after peaking sometime last week. And you can feel the change in the air just a bit...



This is ours:



Should see the high temperatures fall quite a bit come the weekend, when highs below 80F are expected.
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Quoting basti11:



sorry you need to look whats coming out of canada then you will think differently....
we are about to fire up the fans for a test run on wed

high 50's to low 60's for highs
low to mid thirties for lows
commencing by mid week till
rebound at end of next weekend
fall cometh

snow and ice cover on the rebound as well


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Always warm and muggy through Holloween in my area. I remember always being hot walking around on holloween night.
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Our low temps have come down quite a bit after peaking sometime last week. And you can feel the change in the air just a bit...



EDIT: The real cool down though won't be for a while down here. It's starts gradually getting cooler starting the first week of Sept tho...
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Quoting Chicklit:
The Caribbean looks like it's waking up.




I heard someone mention MJO might be returning.


Its forecast to, yes.
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hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Congrats, Texas. You made another tropical storm vanish into thin air. Amazing!





Sadly, I think Texas is turning into a desert. At least it will be a free desert filled with liberty, truth, and justice for all! *Never Forget our Heroes*
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This is from 11 a.m. Tropical Discussion:

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N82W 16N81W 12N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N O THE WEST OF 80W.
A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

LinkShortWaveCarib
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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