Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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CharlotteFL that graphic makes me wonder if Maria will sneak over to 72 or 73W , and not stay east of 70W like the NHC discussion says.

From 11 p.m. discussion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.5N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.5N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.7N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 50.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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BINGO WE ARE NOW GETTING VERY INTERESTING WEATHER FROM MARIA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS!!!
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Quoting charlottefl:
Yeah, I see it too. If that high doesn't break down any more, it's nose is standing firmly in the way of any real northerly progression.

Still, the forecast is for the high to relax, so I guess we'll see.
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Quoting
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
50 percent contained, 35,000 acres, 1554 homes destroyed. 2 dead and 17 considered missing or unaccounted for. My daughters home is ok, she got power back today, most of her friends are homeless.


My heart goes out to all that have been affected. I am glad to hear they are finally getting a handle on the fire. We have had winds from a southern direction and I was hoping that is what they were getting there. I am very glad to know your daughter and her home are safe. ... Does she need anything?
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Quoting KYDan:
I read this blog, probably, 250-300 days of the year for weather info and to learn about tropical systems, and, I am not sure who I should credit with this phrase, locally grown mischief. Everyone that cares to can look at the bottom of this post can see when I joined and how many times I have made a comment post.

I read this blog for a couple of years before deciding it was worth joining. The sense of community and the knowledge offered was the reason I joined. The feeling of community is eroding and the daily stream of knowledgeable information is even more scarce than is the sense of community.

I hate to see it go this way, as I really like this place. I am sure that the old timers and the newbies alike will not care if I tell you about my time on the net, but I feel compelled to share this with you. I have spent the last 12 years as a moderator of one of the most successful sports forums in the Scout network.

Being a successful message board takes hard work and good judgement on the part of the admins and moderators. I do not know who they are at this site, except for Dr Masters. The sports board I play on, everyone knows who we are as we are listed on the main page of the forum.

The final thought is that, at one time, this site had accumulated, among it's staff and bloggers the best group of professional and amateur weather experts on the planet. Dr. Masters is still one of the best in the business, and a few bloggers remain who's knowledge I respect. It is a shame that many of the best regulars are no longer here to learn from.

I figure this post could be deleted so nothing else I might say would be worth the time to type. Other than



It's hard to moderate a high paced forum of any kind, for free, and I suspect that none of these folks are being paid to do it. It's probably a chore that some are asked to do, who would rather be doing something else.

It seems to me that the more popular a forum becomes, the more hostile it can be. I say "can," because not all end up that way. I know of one, that is very popular, that basically has remained a good source of good information, and is managed very well.

This site runs off good people, because some who are here are probably not here to learn, or teach.

If you limit newbie activity too much, you can kill a forum that way too. It's a tough balancing act. I lean towards stricter is better, but that's my feeling, and I don't have to live with the expense of time doing that.

My hats off to the thinkers who remain. There's no reason to go someplace else.

After all, where else can you find a forecast that is reasonably accurate and with the banter that this place has?
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Thanks sunpr, I actually have that site (and many others) saved on Fav's.....problem is there are so many, I forget what I got....got to organize..lol..


If you use Firefox, download ToomanyTabs... It allows you to have 10 tab rows at the bottom, with your bookmarks, showing you one at a time... the you can organize (Radar gifs, Carib., Models, Conus, Gom, Japan, wathever, etc..)
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Maria went 0.4N and 0.7W. between 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. I'd like to see what Aspectre's projection is.
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NHC 11 p.m. advisories on tropical storm Maria are out.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Not yet Taz, it will start after 8:30 California time :)



how about now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Well, the Cape Verde season might be ending... now we passed the peak of the season....
I think it will turn out to be like last year when many storms like Paula and Richard threatening the Gulf cities, Yucatan Pen., Cuba and the Central American Countries.
I miss the cat 5 canes .... (as fish storms)
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762. 996tt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS is showing one of two options that a western Caribbean system could take. This model run develops an area of low pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean, and brings it Northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Afterwards, a strong trough sweeps down and brings the storm into Florida as a hurricane. The other option, which seems less likely at this time, is that the storm continues westward into Mexico, without affecting the United States.

18Z GFS @ 384 hours:



Awesome. Westward is what I was saying though earlier unless something changes so let's wait and see. Yeah, I am a wishcaster. Wouldn't mind a cat 1 or 2 and a nice big swell before and after. Still think GOM is closed though unless something amazing happens.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



has the gfs started?


Not yet Taz, it will start after 8:30 California time :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Eyes, that's the Navy site.... Explore it... has a lot of nice views...
Due to high def. it is quite slow, but it gets there...

Link


Thanks sunpr, I actually have that site (and many others) saved on Fav's.....problem is there are so many, I forget what I got....got to organize..lol..
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Quoting HurricanePookie:


Ah, I heard you were still like a foot short. I know the east coast further south's been dry, but here, it's been a wet summer.


Definitely been a wet one here in Tampa. Yet for some reason, my development still has the sprinklers on every 2 days....
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I have given up on rain here in South Central Texas but it would be nice to have below normal temps at least, unfortunately La Nina is not very nice to Texas, it is usually below average rainfall and above average temps. Any clue how long this La Nina last?


I hope you do get good rains starting very soon. Like tomorrow.

What are the lakes there like, Canyon Lake and Possum Kingdom? Are they dried up or do they still have some water in them?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It's very sad to see all the fires in Texas.

We had some nasty heat here this year. At Balitmore Harbor (KDMH) we set new all-time records for the hottest high and the hottest low this past July. 108/88 was nasty.



has the gfs started?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Katia the Undead west of Ireland. Center is where the kink is. From 8 p.m. EDT.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It's very sad to see all the fires in Texas.

We had some nasty heat here this year. At Balitmore Harbor (KDMH) we set new all-time records for the hottest high and the hottest low this past July. 108/88 was nasty.
I have given up on rain here in South Central Texas but it would be nice to have below normal temps at least, unfortunately La Nina is not very nice to Texas, it is usually below average rainfall and above average temps. Any clue how long this La Nina last?
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Quoting twincomanche:
More PC?
No, just that the blogs get set on some sort of "auto pilot" occasionally and random things happen. Its why some people wind up frustrated when a particularly egregious troll falls to get the ban hammer or some innocuous post disappears.
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Time to see what the NHC has to say about Monstrous Maria meandering many miles with a mazy motion.
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Alaska S storm..... cold temps?....

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Don't rub it in, LOL, 104 here today, what a bad weather year for me plus the all the fires have me kind of devastated.


It's very sad to see all the fires in Texas.

We had some nasty heat here this year. At Balitmore Harbor (KDMH) we set new all-time records for the hottest high and the hottest low this past July. 108/88 was nasty.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


What is the latest on the Bastrop fire? Has it been contained yet?
50 percent contained, 35,000 acres, 1554 homes destroyed. 2 dead and 17 considered missing or unaccounted for. My daughters home is ok, she got power back today, most of her friends are homeless.
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748. KYDan
I wonder how the monsoon season in India has affected them this year? Any comparison to the years between 1950 and 1960?

The weather in the USA seems to be quite like what occurred during the start of that period of time. I am just wondering if anyone here thought that cycle had started again.

Thanks
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Maria look better but still lame


She is LAZY
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Whoaaaa, that's a beauty of a visual.....I Like it :))


Eyes, that's the Navy site.... Explore it... has a lot of nice views...
Due to high def. it is quite slow, but it gets there...

Link
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Night everybody.
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Maria look better but still lame
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Don't rub it in, LOL, 104 here today, what a bad weather year for me plus the all the fires have me kind of devastated.


What is the latest on the Bastrop fire? Has it been contained yet?
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742. MZT
All we have done is cross the midpoint of the season. If it trails off gradually like 2005, did there could be named storms all the way to December. Not that I necessarily think that'll happen. But even with an average wind-off, we should see a few more.
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hi guys. Maria look better
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Quoting floodzonenc:


I got it too. Maybe too much watching Law and Order on the telly.
What was it that i did not get? Cause I don't know what y'all are talking about.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Texas heat is baaaaaaaack.
Don't rub it in, LOL, 104 here today, what a bad weather year for me plus the all the fires have me kind of devastated.
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Pressure low and generally falling in Orkney and Shetland Islands.
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Quoting floodzonenc:


If someone is a foot short, talk to Pcola Dan... (I think he has it.)


heehee

REALLY, I'M OUT...
ciao
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Whoaaaa, that's a beauty of a visual.....I Like it :))
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Quoting HurricanePookie:


Ah, I heard you were still like a foot short. I know the east coast further south's been dry, but here, it's been a wet summer.

Could be, but with this sandy soil it goes through real quick to the aquifer. We rely on constant thunderstorms in summer for crops. So unless we go a long time without rain, being a foot short is kind of immaterial.
This time, I'm really out.
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Pressure falling in northwest Scotland.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Tamale.


No, not food time, bed time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Quoting PcolaDan:

Could be that's the reason. Ah well, off til tomorrow (if they let me). Night all.


Good night.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Quoting emcf30:


Not if you believe the NOGAPS. If they had it their way we would hit 30 storms.



LOL



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You may not get that approved. Hasn't been acted on yet so doesn't show up when someone clicks on it. An random glitch that is reason for some poor-taste avitars that appear for a bit occasionally. Not judging yours, just saying.

Could be that's the reason. Ah well, off til tomorrow (if they let me). Night all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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