Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway
Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.
Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.
The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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why the question mark after no? Typo or you don't know either?
With drier air filtering in NOLA tonight I think it is a super night for a beer or 10 and watching LSU man-handle Ms St....GEAUX TIGERS and DRY AIR!! Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot
yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
I'm hoping not, lol. I've not seen anything on his blog that would suggest such, unless he posted on the main blog while I was at school earlier today.
I certainly hope he hasn't left..
Tonight
76 °F
Clear
Tomorrow
86 °F
Clear
Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!
Ferrets or Fairies?
Not quite on 2007....It was El Nino that gave us rain during spring/early summer. The rain abruptly stopped in fall of 2007 (La Nina) and did not resume until El Nino in fall of 2009..
Kinda confusing.....The actual weather tends to "lag" after formation...
I'm not offended. I get offended when local TV weather people make it sound like it's going to rain. Guess they are just making a bunch of noise to get rating.
Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum
The heat is slowly loosing it's grip on us and it is pleasant with temp 79 here in Crescent City.
It was easy to get after what they did to Oregon...Geaux Tigers!!!
Wu MAIL
What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?
Think of all the beautiful plants that are growing because of the rain. Think of all the beautiful trees etc. that is being nurtured because of the rain. Beautiful lush East Coast woodlands...Ahhh
Now imagine all that vegetation dying and turning into concrete.
Squirrel hmmm. No squirrel shortage here...
Just FYI.
Does it matter! lol! Just take it!
Or are you day dreaming about what it would look like!
That would support Global Warming, not disprove it..
What kind of storm?
Oh I'll take any kind, but i won't take p!ss-mist.. hated that crap in Seattle(actually Kent, WA). I'd walk home about a mile from school and it's be just enough rain to not be completely drenched, but just enough to feel ugh!!!
I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list
OOPS ...i forgot...the storm isn't hitting the US....
Yeah...you're going to have a storm tomorrow....
Even if they left I think its temporary ...I mean, how can you really leave this blog? Its additcting
Was in Seattle for a week about 17 years ago. Was beautiful weather, not a drop of rain all week. I'm going again in March-ish time frame this spring. Hoping for the same weather again.
Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.
The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.
DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET
No, not that ...its just that she has been moving so slowly it didnt even cross my mind that it would get that far ...my apologies ...I'm a mother and a lover of all ...I worry about everyone
So hard for them. I lost my house to a fire late last November. I understand what they're going through.
I grew up in Ohio and remember snow in October, now in May ...I travel home to see my mom from Texas at Christmas time and it always amazes me when there isnt any snow ...I always remember being a kid and there always being snow at Christmas
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