Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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449. sunlinepr
5:42 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Why doesnt ADMIN add this Anti Troll button, next to the Hide...

When a Troll starts posting nonsense, if 10 bloggers hit (whatever number is fine), that button, then the Troll is dismissed from the blog for one hour...
Then, if he gets back again with the same attitude, and his AntiTroll button is hit again, he is trown away for 24 hrs.
If the next day, he comes back again with nonsense, then he is permanently banned....

I think that can be easily programed...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
448. Seawall
5:40 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
This is absurd; pay money for a site, and then what do you get? Doesn't work for hours on end. Locks up your computer. Why isn't there any admins around to take care of this problem?
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
447. BaltimoreBrian
5:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Some of the old entries are interesting. I've read some of the pre-Katrina blogs.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8802
446. JLPR2
5:30 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
I'm so bored I went back to looks at old blog posts by Dr. M and I realized something.
Jeez I was annoying!

I have changed considerably in the past 4 years.

I was a mix of my current self, Taz and JFV. Jeez! Christ! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
445. sunlinepr
5:21 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
Why is this site locking up my computer? No admins around?


The stupid Troll made a Script overflow by posting hundreds of photos...

The only way to fix it is to Admin to take control...

ADMIN YOU HAVE TO to impose safety procedures here... Or else, the blog will keep going downhill...

Procedures Like noone can post animations with more than X amount of megs per post...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
444. sunlinepr
5:18 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Looks like Ophelia began moving E

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
443. Seawall
5:14 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Why is this site locking up my computer? No admins around?
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
441. BaltimoreBrian
5:01 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
Jeez, something locked this blog up?
If you find yourself in a bunker, just search a new Weather site, it won't act up like this place, and you will find friendly folks.


Yeah I got an invite to the bunker.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8802
439. BaltimoreBrian
4:43 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Aspectre that is one messed up group of coordinates in your comment #351!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8802
438. skook
4:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
skook thanks for the info in btntx's blog. You would think that this site would block and ban something like that more quickly. It's not like this is a new site.



My pleasure, Sorry for my horrible typing, after I read it again I realized I butchered so many words, oh well its a little late.


You would think there would be a limit in how much could be linked in one post : /.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 368
437. BaltimoreBrian
4:37 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
skook thanks for the info in btntx's blog. You would think that this site would block and ban something like that more quickly. It's not like this is a new site.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8802
436. skook
4:30 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:
The only way to access the blog again will be:
1. Admin eliminate the posts...

or you can disable viewing images from your browser.
Then go to the bottom of the post and ignore the Troll...

Then go back and enable viewing images...




i just put him on ignore by looking at the page source, its pretty easy to tell who caused it, the page still runs a bit slow, but it works good enough.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 368
435. sunlinepr
4:24 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
The only way to access the blog again will be:
1. Admin eliminate the posts...

or you can disable viewing images from your browser.
Then go to the bottom of the post and ignore the Troll...

Then go back and enable viewing images...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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