Texas drought could last 9 years; Ophelia a Cat 3; Cat 4 Nalgae nears Philippines
The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an interview with Reuters yesterday. "It is possible that we could be looking at another of these multi-year droughts like we saw in the 1950s, and like the tree rings have shown that the state has experienced over the last several centuries," Nielson-Gammon said. Drought statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas is experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The past 12 months have been the driest one-year period on record in Texas. The main blame for this year's drought can be put on La Niña, the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters that deflects the jet stream and takes rain-bearing low pressure system away from Texas. Other large-scale atmospheric/oceanic patterns called the Pacfic Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have also favored dry conditions for Texas this year. When the AMO brings warm ocean temperatures to the North Atlantic, as it has since 1995, Texas is typically dry. Texas also tends to be dry when the PDO brings cool ocean temperatures to the coastal North Pacific next to North America. This has been the case since 2007 (except for late 2009 and early 2010.) In a post earlier this month in his excellent blog, Climate Abyss, Nielson-Gammon has this to say about the influence of global warming on the 2011 drought:
Precipitation: The balance of evidence does not support the assertion that the rainfall deficit since October 2010 was made larger or more likely by global warming.
Temperature: Compared to long-term averages of summer temperature,the rainfall deficit accounted for about 4°F of excess heat and global warming accounted for about 1°F of excess heat. Warmer temperatures lead to greater water demand, faster evaporation, and greater drying-out of potential fuels for fire. Thus, the impacts of the drought were enhanced by global warming, much of which has been caused by man.
Figure 1. This week's Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas was experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
High fire danger for Texas today
Strong winds, temperatures in the 90s, and relative humidities in the 15 - 25% range will bring critical fire conditions today to Texas in the Austin-San Antonio region today, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Austin set a record high for the date yesterday, when the mercury climbed to 99°. Dry weather will dominate Texas for the coming week, but an increasing flow of moist air off the Gulf of Mexico next weekend may allow for a little drought relief 7 - 10 days from now. Texas' hurricane season is pretty much over; it is rare for tropical storms to affect Texas this late in the season. There is the potential the state could get moisture from an Eastern Pacific tropical storm, but there are probably only going to be 1 - 3 more storms in the Eastern Pacific this year, since activity in the basin is sharply lower during La Niña events.
Ophelia strengthens into the season's fourth hurricane
Hurricane Ophelia has strengthened into an respectable Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, making it the season's fourth hurricane and third major hurricane. The arrival of the season's fourth hurricane on September 29 is a week later than the average date for the season's fourth hurricane, which is September 21. This is a remarkably late date for a season boasting the 2nd greatest number of named storms ever recorded before October (sixteen). Typically, over 60% of all named storms intensify into hurricanes; this year, the percentage has been only 25%. This bizarre combination of a near-record number of named storms but only four hurricanes has led to a near-average year for total destructive potential, as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). We are about 7% above average for ACE for this point in the season, according to stats compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue. The combination of near-record warm sea surface temperatures but exceptionally dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic responsible for this year's odd hurricane season shows no signs of changing over the next few weeks. However, it's worth pointing out that the ocean regions north of 20°N latitude where Ophelia and Philippe are positioned have near-normal levels of atmospheric stability and dry air.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia continues to intensify. The hurricane has a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. Moderate wind shear due to upper-level west-southwesterly winds is slowing intensification, and shear is expected to remain moderate through Sunday. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and just a 1% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday, though the models have been trending towards keeping Ophelia farther offshore from Newfoundland in their recent runs. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 36% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Tropical Storm Philippe
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is expected to increase to a very high 30 - 40 knots Saturday through Monday, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear may be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday, though most of the models predict Philippe will survive the shear for the next five days. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it, since Philippe will be forced almost due west by a strong ridge of high pressure early next week. There is even a small chance (perhaps 5%) that Philippe could make a comeback from Ophelia's high shear and affect the U.S. East Coast or Bahama Islands late next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 3. Satellite-predicted rainfall amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT Saturday October 1, 2011, for Typhoon Nalgae. The typhoon is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain over Northern Luzon in the Philippines. This is probably an underestimate, given Nalgae's recent rapid intensification from Cat 2 to Cat 4. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Typhoon Nesat drenching Vietnam; Category 4 Typhoon Nalgae drenching the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat hit Vietnam today near Hanoi as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 43 people dead and 30 missing. The Philippines has a very bad case of deja-vu today, with Typhoon Nalgae already beginning to dump heavy rains on the main island of Luzon. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing over Luzon just to the north of the capital of Manila. Nalgae is expected to maintain its Category 4 strength until landfall, and will likely bring at least 4 - 8 inches of rain to Northern Luzon. While this may not be as wet a storm as Nesat, Nalgae's rains will be falling on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Wind damage is also a huge concern; Nagae's 135 mph winds are capable of causing widespread destruction on Luzon.
Jeff Masters
County Road 172 sliding into the ditch as a result of the prolonged drought.
Reader Comments
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Western side of the eyewall about to make landfall.
I hope everybody in the area Stays Safe.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
Loop of Nesat exiting to the Nw..
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve, loop
All that wrung out over the Nation as skye showed .
I'm going to ignore you and try to enjoy the blog just a little... (:
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator), loop
Friday night and I see the assmonkeys are out in force tonight...
Shouldn't you bozos be playing WoW or something??
CP, 92, 2011100100, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1541W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Ophelia at 105 knots:
AL, 16, 2011100100, , BEST, 0, 256N, 630W, 105, 956, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 20, 25, 1010, 220, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop.. click image fo loop
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TYPHOON NALGAE (T1119)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2011
================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nalgae (935 hPa) located at 16.8N 122.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.6N 118.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.9N 114.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.2N 111.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
so what is NALGAE wind speed in miles per hour?
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 pm HST September 30 2011
==============================
A compact area of low pressure located about 575 miles south- southeast of the Big Island is moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm coverage and organization has been limited, and upper level winds are only marginally conducive for further development
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a LOW chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
I don't know, there are rarely any Central Pacific storms. That is the basin near Hawaii, not the Eastern Pacific (ex. Hilary), nor the Western Pacific (ex. Nalgae).
==============================
Typhoon will move west at the same speed for the next 72 hours
Typhoon will keep present intensity for next 24 hours
Typhoon will weaken because landfall is expected within 12 hours
Final initial Dvorak number will be 5.0 after 24 hours
would be 130 mph using the JTWC winds
*Dvorak intensity 6.0 mean 115 knots (95kts for JMA advisory)
Currently 115kts and still building, the eye has just popped out over the last few hours on satellite.
From Typhoon2000.com.ph
NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011) The core of Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) now approaching the shores of Isabela & Northern Aurora Area. Based on its sudden WSW motion, NALGAE's landfall now expected just north of the Isabela-Aurora Border in approximately 2-3 hours.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela...just south of Palanan Bay between 8-9 AM this morning.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Eye: 16.8º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 96 km East of Isabela's Shoreline
Distance 2: 171 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 3: 144 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 166 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 192 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 291 km ENE of Baguio City
Distance 7: 253 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 326 km SE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 321 km ESE of Vigan City
Distance 10: 213 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 11: 340 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Northern Aurora
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sat Oct 01
TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES
8:28 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011
AT 8 AM PHT...0000Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY
MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
122.7 EAST OR ABOUT 34 KILOMETERS...21 MILES ENE OF DINAPIGUE, ISABELA
...AND 109 KILOMETERS...68 MILES...ESE OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA,
PHILIPPINES.
VERY INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX.
9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...NOW MOVING INTO ISABELA'S COASTLINE
AND AFFECTING PALANAN AND DINAPIGUE.
$$
FORECASTER PADUA
This update was just over 40minutes ago. Nalgae would be making landfall right now.
Just popped in to catch up, that is just plain nasty. Thanks for the graphics, Pat et. al.
DREAD !!
28' waves and 18' surge, possible.
Currently 132mph gusting up to 161mph.
To the chap you quoted, Tropical. :D
I couldn't Ophelia becoming a Category 3, she's the defiant one.
Super article on the Texas drought although I did not read the whole thing.
Nesat gave manila a storm surge, Not sure at what height but it washed out the bay walk and caused flooding in the bay area. In fact, access from Metro Manila to Manila Airport was closed due to storm surge. Nesat was a cat 1.
JMA winds are in 10-minute average while JTWC follows the same 1-minute average standard as the NHC.
It's well south of Palanan Bay, though they should get some harsh winds being in the north side of landfall.
But please don't use my forecast for life or death decisions either:P
Indeed!
Big problems with this one.
Bad Stuff.
That's why I posted all the wind speeds from all the different agencies. 1min wind is more accurate.
I am yet to visit the central and north east coast of Luzon Island. I have been up the west coast as access is more freely available. I hope to travel up the east coast next time I go.
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