Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.

A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.

European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.

Jeff Masters

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the development of this subtropical system has me scraching my head there is no convection or anything to speak of in the NW carribean or in the bahamas except that clusted of convection near grand inagua moving Ne so i have no idea
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
,Now you can start seeing a hint of the low developing slowly east of South Florida around Andrew Island in the Bahamas,you can see hints of a rotation.IMO
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interesting, lol
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her's a better view of our cold front that will spawn t.s rina
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Imo thats impossible then as the bahamas blob is shooting to the ne
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
54. 7544
according to the cmc and the ngp its the bahama blob there now that tracks west wnw over fla in 68 hours if im seeing it right
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Quoting EasyRiderX:
Europe with an unprecedented heat wave this week. A warm October predicted for the northern US states. The heat continues. These events are less of an anomaly and more the expected norm. The historic record shows that climate change events happen swiftly on the order of one or two decades' time. We're in the midst of the latest one right now and this time we're the ones at fault.


It appears you may be confused about some aspects of climate science.

You can NOT attribute any single weather to climate change. Not only is it incorrect but it adds fuel to those who would use such claims as proof of "alarmism". Climate is about long term conditions. A single heat wave can not be used as proof for global warming anymore than the fact that it is sunny at my house means it is sunny everywhere.

While some climate shifts can happen rapidly (<20 years), most do not. Rapid shifts are caused by sudden changes in environmental conditions. Massive volcanic eruptions, meteor impacts, sequestered gas releases, and other such events can abruptly alter climate.

AGW won't cause dramatic shifts in a single decade. Even the most prominent effect (the warming of the polar regions) has taken multiple decades. The most dramatic effects, even in the worst case scenarios, aren't projected to occur until around the mid-century mark.

Yes, the climate is changing. Yes, the current science shows that it is primarily the result of human activities. Yes, we should be concerned and determine the best ways to deal with. But running around pointing at every extreme weather event and saying its caused by global warming only promotes mis-information and fodder for distraction from the real science and results.
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Want rain
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im watching the area north west of west cuba startingbtonight as the energy starts to pile up per say in the area
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Quoting JLPR2:
Satellite problems.
ERROR. ERROR.
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check out the feature in the central gom on watervapor loop,thats the gonna be thed "trigger"spurring a mid/upper level low imo
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These subtropical storms have an act for putting out copious amounts of rain, in 1974 one struck near Clearwater, FL. and dumped a foot of rain with isolated amounts of 20 inches. Link
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Quoting Chucktown:
This is a beautiful set up for us here in coastal SC. We are over 9 inches below normal for rain this year - GFS never gets stronger than 1003 with the low. Great chance to get a soaking rain for a good chunk of the southeast. If the GFS placement of the low is correct, Florida will actually miss out on the beneficial rains.

but the gfs always has pressures anywhere from 994 mb to 1003 mb the gfs isnt really a pressure model its a rainfall/intensity model... not really for t.s/h.u predicting...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Good point. Look at how many scientists have jumped at the oil and coal industry money to spout their anti-science talking points when the opportunity arose and smeared their fellow scientists in the process. It's been hard for a long time though, after all look at how many scientists in the 70s and 80s jumped at cigarette company money to deny the connection between tobacco and cancer.


lol. I've got news for you. There will ALWAYS be special interest groups on BOTH sides of the AGW issue. You act as if there is only the "anti-AGW special interest groups". Either way, someone from either side is going to make a fortune.
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Quoting Patrap:
The pressure gradient is really going to be tightening up, just looking at the gfs ensemble 1012-1030 mb from the tip of FL. to the base of the High offshore of Virginia and a 1004 mb. low over FL.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21758
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21758
Satellite problems.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12z GFS develops the Low in 66hrs. LinkModels are pretty reliable less than 3 days out in terms of development.



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This is a beautiful set up for us here in coastal SC. We are over 9 inches below normal for rain this year - GFS never gets stronger than 1003 with the low. Great chance to get a soaking rain for a good chunk of the southeast. If the GFS placement of the low is correct, Florida will actually miss out on the beneficial rains.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM also shows development in 66hrs. Link


you cant link that site anymore without hosting it
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
37. 7544
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM also shows development in 66hrs. Link


yor linkss dont work
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I noticed Dr. M said "strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday."

Today's Thursday, so that Low needs to hurry up and get going for that to materialize by Saturday.
usually you can see these things seems like just south of cuba?
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NAM also shows development in 66hrs. Link
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34. 7544
Link looks like tghe gfs has some big plans for fla this week and next week end wait watch and see mode here
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12z GFS develops the Low in 66hrs. LinkModels are pretty reliable less than 3 days out in terms of development.
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Good point. Look at how many scientists have jumped at the oil and coal industry money to spout their anti-science talking points when the opportunity arose and smeared their fellow scientists in the process. It's been hard for a long time though, after all look at how many scientists in the 70s and 80s jumped at cigarette company money to deny the connection between tobacco and cancer.


Yeah, but don't take sides that AGW special interests groups are wearing the 'white hats' while the ones in the oil industry are 'evil'. They are all after the same thing: funding to keep their jobs. Doesn't matter if it comes from Dick Chaney's friends or Al Gore & George Soros. They all have an agenda to advance and the "truth" is only ancillary at best. More likely, it's subjective.
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Quoting StormHype:


I've mentioned before, you can trust science, but you can't trust the scientists. The reason is politics. Research scientists with PhDs make a living off grants for research. In these tough economic times, hype and fear is the tool to rally public interest in a cause. It's a PR tactic with the hope it leads to more abundant research funding so they can make a living. Every industry and special interest group plays the same games. You are the one left responsible to be smart enough to read between the lines.


Good point. Look at how many scientists have jumped at the oil and coal industry money to spout their anti-science talking points when the opportunity arose and smeared their fellow scientists in the process. It's been hard for a long time though, after all look at how many scientists in the 70s and 80s jumped at cigarette company money to deny the connection between tobacco and cancer.
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Taken from the Doc's post above, "Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas." Well I'll just have to see it to believe it.
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Quoting sar2401:


And you know this to be a settled scientific fact how....? Climate change has been happening for hundreds of thousands of years, and it seems that taking a small slice of history and extrapolating this to show AGW is risky at best.


Claiming that scientists are using only a small slice of history and extrapolating this to show AGW is risky at best. Especially when the evidence shows that this isn't the case.
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I think there is a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean just south of DR, that I think will aid in development of our Subtropical Storm, coupled with an ULL, and the energy along the boundary. The Subtropical Ridge is supposed to build in over this system providing anti-cyclonic flow as well, which will also keep this from shooting off towards the NE and OTS.
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Quoting pipelines:
burst of activity in the western pacific, burst of activity in the eastern pacific, does this indicate the MJO moving into our basin soon?


Yeah, TD10e and Irwin where aided by the same MJO pulse that is supposed to be on our basin soon.

Going to get messy.
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burst of activity in the western pacific, burst of activity in the eastern pacific, does this indicate the MJO moving into our basin soon?
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Quoting bayoubug:
Are the winds over the gulf going to relax, other wise to much sheer over the gulf for anything to get going..
Actually Wikipedia has a very good description on Subtropical Storms, and says most of its energy derives from jet streaks that cause wind shear & provides lift for convection to develop near the center. Hence, why I believe this is more likely to be subtropical in nature as opposed to purely tropical.
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ADT - CIMMS Page
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2011 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 27:49:44 N Lon : 59:58:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.6

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


It would be neat to see Philippe reach Cat 2, yeah... not likely, but still...
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A Large Low on Saturday ? I don't know, I just don't see a hint !!!!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
Are the winds over the gulf going to relax, other wise to much sheer over the gulf for anything to get going..
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Philippe is looking nice, an eye is trying to warm itself.

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18. 7544
could the blob in the bahamas develope and start to turn wnw is this what the models are seeing on the cmc and ngp tiaLink
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17. 7544
Quoting Neapolitan:
This is seven hours old, but here you go anyway:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-062000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
442 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING. AS THIS WEATHER EVENT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME...THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER
STATEMENTS.


looks like its a go go go for this weekend and the nam shows the low just to the south of fl and moving north over could be something to watch for this weekend lots of rain on the way ?
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Europe with an unprecedented heat wave this week. A warm October predicted for the northern US states. The heat continues. These events are less of an anomaly and more the expected norm. The historic record shows that climate change events happen swiftly on the order of one or two decades' time. We're in the midst of the latest one right now and this time we're the ones at fault.
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Thank Ya Doc.
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
want to change my avatar - anyone? TIA


Go up to the top of the page where your username shows as signed in...point to it, and drop down box comes up...click on "edit photos"...then in that box over on the right hand side, click on edit profile photo.....
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Here's a link to help out the kids of Bastrop after the destructive fires that destroyed alot of areas

Link

Update 10/04: As of today, 509 tiles of 9,936 has been donated.

17 of 1,000 American Outlaws Tiles has been donated.

In the event 3,000 tiles have not been donated by October 13, 2011, we will cancel the project and refund all donations.

This project is being run by the Little Feet Foundation, a 501c3 non-profit organization making your donation tax deductible. Tax ID# 26-0253261
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want to change my avatar - anyone? TIA
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This is seven hours old, but here you go anyway:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-062000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
442 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING. AS THIS WEATHER EVENT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME...THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER
STATEMENTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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