Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E
A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.
Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.
A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.
European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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its not expected to form till tomorrow or Sunday, the subtropical storm will form from the low sometime next week.
Bay News 9 this morning was showing the low forming in South Florida and moving right up through Tampa this weekend.
notice the cold front in n.m where this cold front stops will be where the heavisest rainfall is, if it makes it justt about 50 miles east all all of texas will get heavy rainfall so pray it makes it that far(:
Just an observation which is why I am a "wannabe" and not a pro and not trying to cause a panic here.....lol
Its definite that a Subtropical low will form over the weekend. It is not definite whether or not it strengthens into a Subtropical storm.
Regardless, the effects will be the same.
so does the euro,the cmc, the nam,and pretty much 75% of all the other models...
It's rain, not snow.....
I'm hoping nothing develop
heres the 12z surface analysis just releases! no tropical low yet, but the cold fronts entering Texas prepare for heavy rainfall!
Looks like three different systems for Florida to me.
This weekend, then another Tues-Wed...
and then at the end of the run there's something getting together south of Cuba.
Link worked fine, but the scenario works badly.
That. Would. Not. Be. Good.
Philippe:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 968.7mb/ 84.8kt
Irwin:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 977.5mb/ 82.2kt
Jova:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.1mb/ 63.0kt
Methinks it could be a good bit west of there.
Near the coast of NW Cuba.
Coin toss.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. CUTOFF LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND FINALLY
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AS A STRONG JET MAX APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ONE VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND LIFT NWD INTO NEB AND THE DAKOTAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING NRN IMPULSE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS EARLY
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT A PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...SRN FL...
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER A PORTION OF
THE FL PENINSULA. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS NWWD...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INLAND CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY
GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN FL. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
I think we're about to get multiple systems in short order...
You're on the money about the CMC maybe having a new idea.
nothing impressive on the tropical Atlantic false color rgb loop... except for Phillipe which is of no concern...
And that makes all the difference..
Florida will receive several inches of rain, with winds near tropical storm strength. Go read the NWS discussions, you will see that a SUBTROPICAL low pressure area is expected to develop over the weekend.
Statement as of 6:30 PM PDT on October 6, 2011
... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on October 6...
Location new record old record period of record
El Cajon 67 69 in 2010 since 1979
Escondido 66 69 in 2010 since 1979
Laguna Beach 62 67 in 1935 since 1928
Newport Beach 64 66 in 2001 since 1921
Palm Springs 76 tied 76 in 2010 since 1906
thermal 79 tied 79 in 1977 since 1950
Vista 67 68 in 2009 since 1957
A rear wheel drive car can be fun in the rain, as long as you know how to control it.
12z nam 6 hours out
12z nam 9 hours out
EEK!
NOGAPS is also biting on that low that CMC is presenting S. of Cuba later next week in that last frame.
12z nam 12 hours out
Link
the second low on the 06z Gfs is showing that also
12z nam 15 hours out, still no low yet
12z nam 18 hours out
12z nam 24 hours out
12z nam 27 hours out
I'm here..
here's the nam's 30 hour rainfall forecast so far...
Rain totals will really ramp up as we head into Sunday and Monday across the state of Florida.
By the beginning of next week, a lot of the southeast will experience heavy rain. Lets hope it rains itself out before getting to the Northeast.
No, I am here. You are over there.
Unless I'm here and you're over there, which happens to be the case (:
12z nam 39 hours out says... no low forming Saturday...
29.3n57.4w, 29.8n56.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 6Oct_12pmGMT and ending 7Oct_12pmGMT
The 4 western line-segments represent HurricanePhillippe's path,
the easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 7Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 33.75n7.31w-CAS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 7Oct_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 38.565n28.779w-HOR is the same for the 7Oct_12amGMT.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Phillipe's travel-speed was 13.3mph(21.5k/h) on a heading of 64.2degrees(ENE)
H.Phillipe was headed toward passing 5.5miles(8.9kilometres) south of SaoMiguel,Azores ~5days15hours from now
Copy&paste 38.565n28.779w-hor, 33.75n7.31w-cas, 27.4n60.4w-28.3n59.7w, 28.3n59.7w-28.8n58.7w, 28.8n58.7w-29.3n57.4w, 29.3n57.4w-29.8n56.2w, 29.3n57.4w-37.626n25.51w, pdl into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 7Oct_6amGMT
Viewing: 451 - 501
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