Thailand flood its most expensive in history; Western Caribbean disturbance develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2011

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Heavy rains in Thailand during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 283 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history. On Tuesday, Thailand's finance minister put the damage from the floods at $3.9 billion. This makes the floods of 2011 the most expensive disaster in Thai history, surpassing the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in 61 of Thailand's 77 provinces, affected 8.2 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. Some of the highest tides of the month occur this weekend in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. A moderate monsoon flow continues over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast foresees an additional 2 - 5 inches of rain over most of Thailand during the next three days.


Figure 1. Thailand's Chao Phraya River forms at the confluence of smaller rivers near Nakhon Sawan and flows past Bangkok to the Gulf of Thailand. Floodwalls meant to contain the river collapsed in downtown Nakhon Sawan, the Bangkok Post reported on October 11, 2011. The aftermath of the burst floodwalls left the city looking like a lake. As rivers overflowed in Thailand, the Tônlé Sab (Tonle Sap) lake in neighboring Cambodia (lower right of images) overflowed. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured these images on October 11, 2011, and October 8, 2010. These images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Vegetation is green, and clouds are pale blue-green. Water is dark blue. In 2011, water rests on floodplains between Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains due to an active monsoon and moisture from tropical cyclones
Rainfall in September peaked at 574.3mm (22.61") at Nong Kai in Northeastern Thailand, 501mm (19.72") at Uttardit in Northern Thailand, and 1446.7mm (56.96") in Eastern Thailand. For these regions, precipitation averaged 40 - 46% above normal in September. In the week ending Oct. 13, an additional 4 - 8" fell in Central and Thailand, where the capital of Bangkok lies. On Thursday, 38 mm (1.53") fell in Bangkok, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" fell over much of Central Thailand. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September. The flooding has also affected neighboring Cambodia, killing at least 183 people. Floods have also killed 18 in Vietnam and 30 in Laos this fall.

The Atlantic.com has some remarkable photos of the flooding in Thailand.


Figure 2. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Hurricane Jova kills five in Mexico, but damage limited
Hurricane Jova killed five people in Mexico but damage was less than expected, amounting to less than $52 million, according to AIR-Worldwide. Jova hit the Pacific coast of Mexico Tuesday night as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss rode out the storm on the coast, and has a a great post on his experience, which I excerpt here: "the winds suddenly picked up fiercely and started pounding the building I took shelter in. The surf ran way up on the beach and the waves were pounding the buildings and spraying up over everything at the pool. The wind was screaming and howling and the glass was flying. The Spanish tiles were getting ripped off the roof and all the glass light fixture were popping like balloons."


Figure 3. Mudslide from Hurricane Jova covers a road near Mazanillo, Mexico. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Invest 94L in the Atlantic no threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) between North Carolina and Bermuda is moving quickly to the northeast at 15 - 20 mph. This system has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and a the beginnings of a surface circulation, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery. Conditions are marginal for this to develop into a tropical depression, as wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and ocean temperatures are at the lower limit for develoment, 26.5°C (80°F.) NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing.

Western Caribbean disturbance
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system has developed. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, is invigorating the Western Caribbean low. Heavy rains from the low are affecting much of Central America, Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and these rains will probably intensify over the weekend as the low moves slowly northwest and gradually develops. The low is too large to develop quickly, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range, 15 - 25 knots, over the next three days. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. A personal weather station on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 0.87" of rain so far this morning from the storm. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and South Florida could see heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Bridge out (MrOgopogo)
The main bridge connecting Santiago and Salagua, washed out, closed even to foot traffic
Bridge out
Lake Las Hadas (MrOgopogo)
Flooding after the near miss by Jova
Lake Las Hadas

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504. TropicTraveler
3:24 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Lol Straight from Wikipedia.

Red is were Tornado's are more likely to form.

Click for full size image.


Thanks! I looked at those pictures you posted and could easily imagine a tornado dropping down from one of them.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
502. AussieStorm
3:05 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


If they haven't, it's probably due to either being such a small country anyway or it's gone unnoticed.

They do need certain conditions, but those conditions can occur in many places at many times. It may only cause one tornado - which is weak and lasts for only a minute - only now and then, but it's still a tornado.

Of course, for some places it's an exceptionally rare event.

Lol Straight from Wikipedia.

Red is were Tornado's are more likely to form.

Click for full size image.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
501. ChillinInTheKeys
3:05 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
500. indianrivguy
2:58 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
off to the salt mines, everyone be well and have a great day!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
499. Cotillion
2:57 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Theoretically your correct, But I am sure not every country on earth has had a tornado. They need certain atmospheric conditions.


If they haven't, it's probably due to either being such a small country anyway or it's gone unnoticed.

They do need certain conditions, but those conditions can occur in many places at many times. It may only cause one tornado - which is weak and lasts for only a minute - only now and then, but it's still a tornado.

Of course, for some places it's an exceptionally rare event.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
498. TropicTraveler
2:57 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Theoretically your correct, But I am sure not every country on earth has had a tornado. They need certain atmospheric conditions.


For examaple, in the U.S. we get tornado outbreaks in the spring and fall. I don't read about them in other areas.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
497. DDR
2:56 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Showers moving in on Trinidad this afternoon,looks like 4-6 inches by next Saturday.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
496. AussieStorm
2:55 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


Good video from Bathurst. Marcos Ambrose is a tremendous talent. We're happy to have him over here running with us in NASCAR.

BTW, amazing pictures with your springtime storms... it appears those of us in FL are about to get something interesting here in the coming days.

I have seen every episode of Storm Chasers and I am just amazed by some of the cloud formations you guys get over there. These wall clouds I see, How close do they get to the ground, some look like barely 50ft-100ft above the ground.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
495. GTcooliebai
2:53 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Should see this tagged an Invest later today, notice a couple of things, the dry air over the Eastern Gulf getting squeezed out, and a tropical wave approaching the AOI.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
494. klew136
2:51 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:




Winds haven't been bad this morning, 10 to 20MPH so far today.
maybe i should have said gusts, while being under one of those red cells. this is what we just had
The stronger activity will produce heavy downpours...wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph and occasional lightning strikes.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
493. hydrus
2:51 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting superpete:
There is a cold front pushing south also by early next week, will be interesting to see what effect that has on the feature we are currently watching, as it moves N
I will be watching..I will see yall day after tomorrow..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
492. whepton3
2:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you check out Bathurst last weekend. NASCAR legend Darrell Waltrip went for some hot laps and loved it. Not sure if you've seen any footage. Link
Also, did you check out the NRL final that was on the day after the AFL Final that meatloaf sucked big time on. Let me know if you need any help with places to go, also, would love to meet up with you and your bride.


Good video from Bathurst. Marcos Ambrose is a tremendous talent. We're happy to have him over here running with us in NASCAR.

BTW, amazing pictures with your springtime storms... it appears those of us in FL are about to get something interesting here in the coming days.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
491. ChillinInTheKeys
2:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting klew136:

It is dark seems like nighttime, hard rain, and wind here in islamorada


I'm in the Lower Keys, Light to moderate tropical rain here.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
490. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


Some vigourous thunderstorms, but it doesn't have a lot of time on its side so don't expect too much from it.

(but that's just going off the nhc - not paid any attention to it)
Thanks Cot...Gotta run..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
489. AussieStorm
2:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


You don't need supercells only to create tornadoes, though.

I think you can get tornadoes basically anywhere. Only Antarctica I'm unsure about.

Theoretically your correct, But I am sure not every country on earth has had a tornado. They need certain atmospheric conditions.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
488. Sfloridacat5
2:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
NAM,end of current run (84 hours), rain spreading across Florida.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
487. Tropicsweatherpr
2:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Irwin still hanging around doing loops.

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011

THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IRWIN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT...
DUE TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR....DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATERS OF THE WAKE OF JOVA...ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE WEAKENING OF IRWIN IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER IN THE PERIOD
SOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR...HOWEVER IRWIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER ANOMALOUSLY COOL
WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER. AS A
RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND SET BY THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS IRWIN BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
VERY SOON AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.

IRWIN IS MOVING SOUTHWARD OR 185/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE STEERING CURRENT ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND IRWIN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE UPDATED FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST...
HOWEVER...REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND TVCE CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE MUCH SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.5N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 14.9N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.7N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 14.7N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 14.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 14.7N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
486. AussieStorm
2:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:


Mate! Not sure if you've read this, seems we have problems with the Antarctic Ozone hole.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
485. ChillinInTheKeys
2:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:


Got a pal out there right now, I have not been to able communicate with him since 7 AM.




Winds haven't been bad this morning, 10 to 20MPH so far today.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
484. Cotillion
2:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ofcourse there are places that don't get tornado's. Not all super cell thunderstorms produce tornado's.


You don't need supercells only to create tornadoes, though.

I think you can get tornadoes basically anywhere. Only Antarctica I'm unsure about.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
483. klew136
2:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:
Nice patch of 25-35 MPH off the coast of the Upper Keys, bad day for boating.



It is dark seems like nighttime, hard rain, and wind here in islamorada
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
482. AussieStorm
2:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Aussie Storm's pictures made me wonder about something. Are there areas that never get tornadoes? I so, where? And why?

Ofcourse there are places that don't get tornado's. Not all super cell thunderstorms produce tornado's.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
481. TropicTraveler
2:42 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Aussie Storm's pictures made me wonder about something. Are there areas that never get tornadoes? I so, where? And why?
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
480. Skyepony (Mod)
2:42 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I should have asked this 2 years ago lol. How do I add an avatar to my profile?


Scroll over Photos & videos, click on photo galleries. In the upper right there is a red button that says upload photos, click that. Proceed to upload a pic of your choice to WUnderground. On the right in the edit details be sure to click the box for self portrait. Wait for the photo to be approved & then you should magically appear as something besides a gray shadow person..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
479. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:41 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Pressures have been slowly falling and Winds have been slowly rising in the Western Caribbean over the past few days. One thing for sure is that this system is taking a long time to tighten up. I think we'll see more modest development tomorrow though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
478. Sfloridacat5
2:40 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
does the Nam model have the low as a tropical storm approaching Sw florida coast


I will post the end of the current run (84 hours) as soon as the current run is finshed.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
477. BenBIogger
2:40 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Today is the first day of stone crab season. Gonna be plenty of Watermen out today.


Got a pal out there right now, I have not been to able communicate with him since 7 AM.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
476. AussieStorm
2:39 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting floodzonenc:


So are you in New South Wales?

My wife and I are enamored with Australia and plan to go there in about 2 or 3 years.

BTW, they showed the Australian football finals on TV a couple weeks ago. Awesome sport. From my avatar, you can tell I was pulling for Geelong :)

Did you check out Bathurst last weekend. NASCAR legend Darrell Waltrip went for some hot laps and loved it. Not sure if you've seen any footage. Link
Also, did you check out the NRL final that was on the day after the AFL Final that meatloaf sucked big time on. Let me know if you need any help with places to go, also, would love to meet up with you and your bride.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
475. Sfloridacat5
2:38 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
NAM at 69 hours. NAM keeps the low just off shore allowing it to gradually strengthen.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
474. Cotillion
2:37 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Cot..What are your thoughts with the system in the Western Caribbean?


Some vigourous thunderstorms, but it doesn't have a lot of time on its side so don't expect too much from it.

(but that's just going off the nhc - not paid any attention to it)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
473. superpete
2:37 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
I dont mind saying, I do not like this situation.
There is a cold front pushing south also by early next week, will be interesting to see what effect that has on the feature we are currently watching, as it moves N
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
472. indianrivguy
2:36 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:


Hopefully Lake O will get some needed rain this weekend.


That's a double edged sword though.. too much water and they dump it on us killing our estuary, rather than send it into the glades where it belongs.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
471. PdCMexico
2:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Woke up to some pretty strong wind gusts, this AM. Now, not so much wind but intermittent downpours. Streets are flooding and mosquitoes are looking for cover (not cool with the dengue problem, this year). We have had a pretty uneventful season, so can't complain too much.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
470. Skyepony (Mod)
2:34 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Morning all. I almost made it to the other side of satellite blackout last night. That Caribbean blob has my interest. Anticyclone tightening up, got a low spot of shear there.


TropicalTraveler~ Pretty funny..Hope you atleast get some good coffee in ya this morning:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
469. biloxibob
2:33 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


I think by tomorrow night we may know what FL is in for in the coming days.
Probably a TS.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
468. Seflhurricane
2:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
looking at all the models , seems to me we will have a very down right wet next few days across south florida and the models have the Low pressure area moving across South Florida so lets hope it doesnt develop , but seems to me it will develop into a moderate TS when it come through here
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
467. Tropicsweatherpr
2:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
I should have asked this 2 years ago lol. How do I add an avatar to my profile?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
466. ChillinInTheKeys
2:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:
Nice patch of 25-35 MPH off the coast of the Upper Keys, bad day for boating.




Today is the first day of stone crab season. Gonna be plenty of Watermen out today.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
465. hydrus
2:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


That's why climatology should always be considered.

It's exceptionally rare for all the three main months to be bumper in activity. You find a lull even in the super active seasons. Some seasons, like 2003, have fairly uniform activity, but have little lulls interspersed.

It's been an unique season already - but there's only so many trends you can break.
Good morning Cot..What are your thoughts with the system in the Western Caribbean?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
464. whepton3
2:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
I dont mind saying, I do not like this situation.


I think by tomorrow night we may know what FL is in for in the coming days.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
463. Seflhurricane
2:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 54 hours
does the Nam model have the low as a tropical storm approaching Sw florida coast
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
462. hydrus
2:28 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
I dont mind saying, I do not like this situation.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
461. HuracanTaino
2:28 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning!

Kind of odd to see such a good looking storm in the CAtl.

Agree, if it wasn't for that strong ULL waiting, in the mid atlantic, that "baby" maybe, would've stand a chance.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
460. Cotillion
2:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I thought October was going to be more active with La Nina in place and the wet MJO pulse comming towards the Caribbean. But I guess mother nature has other plans.


That's why climatology should always be considered.

It's exceptionally rare for all the three main months to be bumper in activity. You find a lull even in the super active seasons. Some seasons, like 2003, have fairly uniform activity, but have little lulls interspersed.

It's been an unique season already - but there's only so many trends you can break.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
459. whepton3
2:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Out at +57... NAM advertises a 1000 MB low.

Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
458. BenBIogger
2:25 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Nice patch of 25-35 MPH off the coast of the Upper Keys, bad day for boating.


Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
457. Sfloridacat5
2:24 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
NAM at 54 hours
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
456. Ameister12
2:23 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Good morning!

Kind of odd to see such a good looking low in the CAtl in October.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
455. Tropicsweatherpr
2:19 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:
The new icons are very... visible.

The season really seems to be winding down. No surprise October has been nothing to shout about - any student of hurricane history would have known this would be the most likely outcome.

Still think you'll at least see one more somewhere.

Never been a season to end on 17 storms before, oddly. Wonder if that'll be broken this year.


I thought October was going to be more active with La Nina in place and the wet MJO pulse comming towards the Caribbean. But I guess mother nature has other plans.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
454. AdamWilson27
2:16 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
What does this look like. Storm cell outside Brisbane.







Photo's credit to @dyabolikarl


Ahhh I remember these after living near Ippy, Independence day style southerly storms and the massive westerlies.......
Member Since: April 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.