Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.
The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.
Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A longer loop with a couple of hiccups.
Sounds like a big deal so keep us informed about what is going on over there.
shear has decreased significantly in the last 24 hours
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 10/15/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 107 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.7 °F
Note: 29.71 inHg = 1006.1 mbar.
Multiply inches of mercury by 33.864 to get millibars.
Also check these out
No problem.
Here is nice website for everybody.
Link
that being said what is the thinking on 95L?
lol...
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AND GENERALLY SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LIFTING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP
SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CAA...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING THURSDAY
NIGHT IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S ACROSS GLADES COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
No matter what the track is, Florida is going to get a lot of rain, so it won't really matter. Development is hanging on whether enough low pressure can stay over water. Early models are focused westward across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. 12z ECMWF operational is slightly farther west as well. I still think the current main low will stay over the Yucatan as opposed to west of it, while we might have to watch for secondary development to the east over the water. It has a lot of time to try to become a TD, but probably not enough time to become anything significantly strong even if it does develop.
It looks like lots of rain for St. Gustav.
I th ink when the page flips it will be ok so will check back after the 200th post.
ROFL when I first read that I thought "WHAT???"
then I realized you were talking to Neo not me! ROFL..
I think last time this happened the flip of the page helped..
yes I am at work and on Internet Explorer..
Hey,how are you?
Still going to uwi?
yes lots of rain,flooding going on.
Looking at the radar we'll pick up an addition 4-5 or so
Yes i'm still here. Haven't seen this much rain in Trinidad since last season. There will definitely be severe flooding given the low lying nature of the island.
Can you say Mitch? Well, without the Cat 5 hurricane of course. Same type of scenario though.
Yes that is correct,lucky i live on the hills.The last time this happened was May 2010
This is like a solid tropical storm with no wind.
I'm sorry, but you really have the check your definition of "rain". If you have to walk in it with a diving tank to breath... its not "rain"
That's why they call it TORRENTIAL rain.
Also there's a tropical wave due by tomorrow ...
4:04 PM - 77.0°F - NNW 3.5 mph - Heavy Rain
I'm lost for words,this is just incredible.
Upward mjo to blame
Hehe,thats what ppl in the rural south of the island have to deal with every time it rains heavy.Good thing it isnt falling there.
... and with La Nina back in full force, it's gonna be a rainy end to the year.
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