Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

September the globe's 8th warmest on record; heavy rains hit Florida

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2011

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September 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September the 9th warmest on record. NASA rates the top ten warmest Septembers since 1880 as having all occurred in the past ten years. September 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record for the month of September. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were above average, the 8th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

21st warmest September for the U.S.
September 2011 in the U.S. was the 21st warmest in the 117-year period of record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Thirteen states in the West and Northeast had top-ten warmest Septembers on record, and one state, Mississippi, had a top-ten coolest September. On September 4th, Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the Gulf Coast, and brought torrential rain to most of the eastern United States. While Lee brought drought relief for the Gulf Coast, it caused major flooding in the already-saturated Northeast. Rainfall totals of at least 10 inches were common along Lee's path. Eleven states from Louisiana to New York experienced a top-ten wettest September, and it was the wettest September in Pennsylvania's history. In Binghamton, New York, Lee aided in breaking three all-time precipitation records: most rainfall in a year (57.85 inches to date), most rainfall in any month (16.58 inches), and most rainfall on any calendar day (7.49 inches on September 7th). Dayton, Ohio and Allentown, Pennsylvania both had their wettest September on record. In contrast, five states had a top-ten driest September. Ten percent of the United States was in an exceptional drought--the most extreme classification--in September. Austin, Texas saw its driest September on record, receiving only 0.01 inches of rain during the month.

Weak La Niña conditions continue
La Niña continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures remain 0.5°C to 1.0°C below average, qualifying this as a weak La Niña event. During the coming winter, La Niña is likely to bring drought in the South, especially to Texas. Above average temperatures can also be expected in the South. The Pacific Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another record-breaking winter of snowpack across the western United States. La Niña also tends to bring wetter than average conditions to the Ohio Valley.

Arctic sea ice extent second lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its second lowest on record in September, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The center said that on September 9th, the Arctic reached its annual minimum extent, which was also the second-smallest minimum extent on record. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has an in-depth analysis of some of the more notable September global extremes in h is latest post.

Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 9:20 am EDT over South Florida. Heavy rains of up to 5 inches affected the coast near Naples and portions of the Keys.

Heavy rains continue over South Florida
Heavy rains continue over South Florida due to the lingering remnants of Invest 95L. Key West Naval Air Facility has picked up an additional 4.61" of rain as of 9 am EDT this morning, bringing their 5-day total to 17.42" of rain. Yesterday, 95L spawned three tornadoes over Southeast Florida. One twister damaged 40 homes near Lakeport, and roofs were torn off homes in Sunrise. No injuries were reported from the tornadoes. The severe threat shifts to coastal North Carolina today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of coastal North Carolina and Virginia in their "slight risk" area for severe weather.

None of the computer models predicts tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during the coming seven days. The Western Caribbean is expected to see an increase in moisture late next week and the possible formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of bringing heavy rains.

My next post will be early Thursday afternoon, after NOAA issues their winter outlook at 11 am EDT that day.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Invest 95L (oneshotww)

We received rain most of the day yesterday and again today from Invest 95L. The visibility and flooding were pretty bad during the evening commute home. My street is totally under water. Most folks had enough sense to drive slow as conditions made it necessary to take it easy.

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351. hydrus 1:37 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting soclueless: I don't think I've seen IKE post since ...was it Lee that went up to the Panhandle? Lee affected most of the northern gulf coast from extreme East Texas to the Florida Panhandle.. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

352. soclueless 1:40 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: Lee affected most of the northern gulf coast from extreme East Texas to the Florida Panhandle.. Thanks Hydrus, just can't remember Ike posting since then. Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

353. hydrus 1:44 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting soclueless: Thanks Hydrus, just can't remember Ike posting since then. I have not seen Ike post in some time...Interesting situation forming in the Western Caribbean. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

354. soclueless 1:49 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: I have not seen Ike post in some time...Interesting situation forming in the Western Caribbean. Do you think it has a chance? I was reading it might, and head to Miami. Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

355. hydrus 1:54 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting soclueless: Do you think it has a chance? I was reading it might, and head to Miami. I believe it has a good chance. In fact it is a little unsettling. Check out the GEM model..Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

356. soclueless 2:05 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: I believe it has a good chance. In fact it is a little unsettling. Check out the GEM model..Link If the models verify, I'm glad I'm not in Miami,after all the rain from 95L.I was reading that maybe sometime, as early as next week,for this to get better organized. Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

357. soclueless 2:07 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
LOL at me being a lurker, 3 post's in 1 day ia a lot for me. Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

358. stormwatcherCI 2:10 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: I believe it has a good chance. In fact it is a little unsettling. Check out the GEM model..Link I don't like how that is looking. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

359. eddye 2:15 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
does it looklike we can have frost tonight in jacksonville and a different question looks like miami is going 2 get a tropical storm Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 983

360. hydrus 2:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting soclueless: If the models verify, I'm glad I'm not in Miami,after all the rain from 95L.I was reading that maybe sometime, as early as next week,for this to get better organized. Some areas of Florida could still use the rain ti fill the aquifers. Certainly would be better to do it withiut being whacked tho. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

361. WeatherfanPR 2:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
around 60°F at this hour in Carrollwood. Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

363. hydrus 2:18 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I don't like how that is looking. I read ya..If that were to pan out, it would end up being a dangerous storm. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

364. soclueless 2:19 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: Some areas of Florida could still use the rain ti fill the aquifers. Certainly would be better to do it withiut being whacked tho. I agree with you there Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

365. WeatherfanPR 2:20 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
hey eddye. how was the temp this morning ? Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

366. hydrus 2:21 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR: Ha. I see the regulars on here just dying over the opportunity for mother nature to unleash her worse. Just hoping and drooling over the shot in the dark possibility of nature to unleash her worst. They will grip any computer model that ever so slightly hints at the possibility of a US landfalling named storm--despite being WEEKS out and only suggested in one model run out of the past dozen or so. And even the lurkers are catching on and allured into this sick, fantasy mentality. Truly sad. I do not know if I am considered a regular or not, but if you believe for a second that I want to see people lose there lives and property you are sadly mistaken. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

367. soclueless 2:22 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR: Ha. I see the regulars on here just dying over the opportunity for mother nature to unleash her worse. Just hoping and drooling over the shot in the dark possibility of nature to unleash her worst. They will grip any computer model that ever so slightly hints at the possibility of a US landfalling named storm--despite being WEEKS out and only suggested in one model run out of the past dozen or so. And even the lurkers are catching on and allured into this sick, fantasy mentality. Truly sad. LOL LOL was that you're best shot? Come on you can do better that that can't you? Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

368. eddye 2:23 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
40 degrees jacksonville Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 983

369. MahFL 2:23 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
BullShoalsAR - poof ! Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2418

370. WeatherfanPR 2:27 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting eddye: 40 degrees jacksonville ufffff, very chilly !!! Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

371. TropicTraveler 2:29 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting MahFL: BullShoalsAR - poof ! He got the bull part of his name right. Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 896

372. scottiesaunt 2:32 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Anybody have any info on IKE? Haven't seen a post by him in a while now. He was probably banned Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91

373. MahFL 2:34 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Gaddafii is dead- official. Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2418

374. robert88 2:39 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
What a mess out there...nothing to get excited about for the time being. Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

375. eddye 2:43 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
robert your wrong look in the carribean it looks pretty good and i say it should be at a medium chance right know Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 983

376. Neapolitan 2:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting eddye: 40 degrees jacksonville Last night's official low for Jacksonville will go down as 43. Coldest in the state was 38 at Tallahassee, a degree or two from the record. (The highest low in peninsular Florida was 71 here at Naples, but we're supposed to see the high 50s tonight and tomorrow night.) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?sid=FL&pil=R TP Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142

377. BahaHurican 2:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Morning all. Things have quietened a bit since last night. We got showers most of the night, though nothing spectacular... more like one would normally expect for a frontal passage. This morning is is considerably cooler than it was yesterday... and I'd be surprised if we get to 85 today. Currently it's just over 80 degrees with winds from the NNW at 12 at Nassau Int'l Airport. It's the first time in a while that we've had cool temps like this before November. I gotta run, but will check in later. Have a great day! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

378. MahFL 2:50 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
I can confidently report there was NO snow in JAX this am, lol. Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2418

379. Neapolitan 2:53 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
The magnitude of this morning's Texas quake has been raised to a 4.8, tying it with the 1966 Panhandle quake in terms of strength. It's also the largest known quake ever in Texas outside the Big Bend or Panhandle regions. The area in which the quake was centered has a very low probability of seismic activity. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142

380. BahaHurican 2:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
I seriously doubt Ike was banned. I do know he was dealing with some other issues. It would be great if one of the bloggers who has contacts with him would check to see how he's doing.... and give us a progress report.... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

381. MahFL 3:08 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
IKE said the other day he was lurking a lot. Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2418

382. MahFL 3:09 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
I think he also said he won't post unless something is out there to post on, tropical wise. Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2418

383. TropicTraveler 3:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting MahFL: IKE said the other day he was lurking a lot. A lot of people either aren't posting or aren't on the blog anymore. It seemed like for a while there was so much conflict, aggravated in large part by a determined "troll" attack, that some people just got tired of dealing with all the negativity. I feel sorry about that, as I miss their contributions to the blog, even though there are still lots of good folks on here. Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 896

384. Neapolitan 3:21 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
The NOAA just released its official climate outlook for the coming winter. More bad news for Texas and Florida, along with most of the southern tier of states. Meanwhile, if the predicted much wetter and colder winter across the northern third materializes, we can practically guarantee a return to this last spring's devastating flooding Mississippi aand Missouri River: Click for larger image: Click for larger image: Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142

385. Patrap 3:22 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
..I heard ya knocking on my cellar door, I love ya baby can I have some more ? Gone, Gone, the Damage done. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

386. Drakoen 3:29 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Several of the computer models want to go ahead and develop this disturbance in the southern Caribbean and pull it northward. Surface observations show broad cyclonic flow with the low pressure center on the extreme eastern edge of the convection. Computer models show the upper level easterlies slackening over the next 24 hours which should allow room for further development of this system. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

387. stormwatcherCI 3:44 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting hydrus: I read ya..If that were to pan out, it would end up being a dangerous storm. And right on top the Cayman Islands. We really don't need that. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

388. Tropicsweatherpr 3:45 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting Drakoen: Several of the computer models want to go ahead and develop this disturbance in the southern Caribbean and pull it northward. Surface observations show broad cyclonic flow with the low pressure center on the extreme eastern edge of the convection. Computer models show the upper level easterlies slackening over the next 24 hours which should allow room for further development of this system. Do you see something developing from the area east of the Windwards? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8094

389. weaverwxman 3:53 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
About the probability of the Carib Storm. #1 don't get too excited.# 2 do stay informed. #3 it may not be able to spin up anymore than an strong TS. #4 It may go over cuba skirt the S FL coast and Keys an go out to sea....... Thats for all you wishcasters out there. Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

390. AussieStorm 3:54 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR: Ha. I see the regulars on here just dying over the opportunity for mother nature to unleash her worse. Just hoping and drooling over the shot in the dark possibility of nature to unleash her worst. They will grip any computer model that ever so slightly hints at the possibility of a US landfalling named storm--despite being WEEKS out and only suggested in one model run out of the past dozen or so. And even the lurkers are catching on and allured into this sick, fantasy mentality. Truly sad. For a newbie, you sure have opinion that's swayed in the wrong direction. We here like to watch mother nature. We do not wish death and destruction on anyone. Maybe you reading all the trolls that post in here and not the regulars. Even the NWS and NHC look at all the models and what they predict, not just people in here. A comment on the photo above, Looks like the photo has been take by the driver, isn't that illegal? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13269

391. superpete 3:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: And right on top the Cayman Islands. We really don't need that. Stormwatcher- This front currently over us is going to lift out today.Will be interesting to see what develops from the AOI down south then? Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 498

392. wunderkidcayman 4:08 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
yes more rain for me and training you know the Capt.,Maj.,and Lt Comdr states rain and storms don't stop the reggae jam hoorah Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5381

393. stormpetrol 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
216. stormpetrol 12:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2011 +0 FRom the Central to SW &NW Caribbean bears watching the next few days in my opinion. Action: Quote \| Modify Comment Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5144 Said it from last evening, looks like it might pan out Pressures are high but I suspect that will change soon, shear has surely decreased over the past few hours though Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

394. Buhdog 4:26 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Am i wrong for thinking that the blog is actually less cluttered without 5 million posts of irrelevancy? Sure it is sad many have left, but the ones who stayed still put alot of good info on here. Thanks to those who do...\\south florida radar and sat combined pic here Link Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 949

395. Buhdog 4:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Quoting Patrap: ..I heard ya knocking on my cellar door, I love ya baby can I have some more ? Gone, Gone, the Damage done. neil young? how about foreigner damage is done " There have been rumors That my sense of humor is lacking in some ways To me that's no reason, it's tantamount to treason" Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 949

396. WeatherfanPR 4:40 PM GMT on October 20, 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

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