Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Das "poof"

Quoting Patrap:
Das "poof"

are you ignoring Sean now...
:P
Thanks for the update Doc! been enthralled by that wave vid past couple days myself!!

Quoting Dr Masters


"The Tipton tornado is the first November EF-4 tornado in Oklahoma's history, and one of only twenty EF-4 or stronger tornadoes observed in the U.S. since 1950, according to the Tornado History Project. There have been twelve December EF-4 tornadoes and two December EF-5 tornadoes observed in the U.S. since 1950. The confirmed tornado count for 2011 is 1543"


Why is it when meteorologist of a flood, they use terms such as "this is a 100 year flood" for example, but in terms of this tornado, the term history is used when accurate records barely even go back to the 1950s?



Thanks to all the veterans for your sacrifice for us.

Thanks Dr. Masters. Makes me want to grab my surfboard and go chase Tornadoes. :)

To all our veterans, I thank you.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Sean looks dead.

Actually top sustained winds were 45mph at BWS, at 2:55am from the SSE. Link

As many have already done so, I wish to thank all of our veterans for their service to this country. May they always be shown the respect and dignity that they are most deserving. Their courage, self sacrifice and dedication to us all is most appreciated. Thank you.

Congratulations to Garret McNamara! That had to be one heck of a ride! .. I now await such a wave to show itself at Galveston, Texas! ... How long do you think I will need to wait? Do I have time to get a new board? I sold my last one in 1970. :(

Have a great weekend all and thank you, Dr. Masters, once again.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
As many have already done so, I wish to thank all of our veterans for their service to this country. May they always be shown the respect and dignity that they are most deserving. Their courage, self sacrifice and dedication to us all is most appreciated. Thank you.

Congratulations to Garret McNamara! That had to be one heck of a ride! .. I now await such a wave to show itself at Galveston, Texas! ... How long do you think I will need to wait? Do I have time to get a new board? I sold my last one in 1970. :(

Have a great weekend all and thank you, Dr. Masters, once again.

Happy Veterans day..This was one of my favorite intro,s in 1970....Hope this works...Link

@Neapolitan: Left you a little love note this morning in DocM's previous blog.
...............

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...TIPTON TORNADO RATING UPGRADED TO EF4...

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF DATA COLLECTED DURING A GROUND DAMAGE SURVEY...
THE RATING FOR THE NOVEMBER 7TH TIPTON TORNADO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
EF4 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE RATING IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
DAMAGE OBSERVED AT THE OSU AGRONOMY RESEARCH STATION ON HIGHWAY 5.

THIS IS THE FIRST NOVEMBER EF4 TORNADO IN OKLAHOMA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1950.

ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS IN AN EF4 TORNADO RANGE FROM 166 TO 200 MPH.

$$
SMITH

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Seriously quiet day in here...

Thanks Dr. M. Beautiful day in the Keys with the wind blowing about 20 mph and cool temps. The World Championship Offshore Powerboat races are on at the moment. Sad to say there was a wreck on Wednesday that took the lives of a driver and throttle man.

On a more pleasant note, my daughter, who is a Labor and Delivery Nurse at Lower Keys Hospital was awarded Nurse of the Year by the South Florida March of Dimes. I am so proud of her. And she is going to make me a Grandma in April.

Just had to share with everyone even though it is very quiet in here.

Quoting kwgirl:
Thanks Dr. M. Beautiful day in the Keys with the wind blowing about 20 mph and cool temps. The World Championship Offshore Powerboat races are on at the moment. Sad to say there was a wreck on Wednesday that took the lives of a driver and throttle man.

On a more pleasant note, my daughter, who is a Labor and Delivery Nurse at Lower Keys Hospital was awarded Nurse of the Year by the South Florida March of Dimes. I am so proud of her. And she is going to make me a Grandma in April.

Just had to share with everyone even though it is very quiet in here.

Very quiet in here today indeed..Congratulations to your daughter and you on this Veterans Day..:)

No one's posted it, so...

...SEAN BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Fri Nov 11
Location: 34.8°N 62.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No one's posted it, so...

...SEAN BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Fri Nov 11
Location: 34.8°N 62.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb

Looks like a cat-5...jk...

I lived in Lisbon, Portugal for three years and they do get big waves, especially during the winter Atlantic low storms. Never saw any as big as the one here, but 15-20 footers were not uncommon.

Must be almost post-season.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Must be almost post-season.

It wont be long before hurricanes form through out the entire year due to global warming. J.K...Wuzup C.T....Hope your Veterans Day is a good one..

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Must be almost post-season.

Almost.

We'll still see Tammy and Vince though, me thinks.

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Here's a longer video of the 90ft wave




Also, while the wave is currently claimed as being "90ft tall and the tallest wave ever surfed" I'm quite positive it is still an unofficial claim. Ken Bradshaw surfed a wave at Outer Log Cabins, Hawaii that was also claimed to be 85ft in 1998 which should be the largest wave ever surfed, but the record books officially recognize Mike Parson's 77ft wave at Cortez Bank (100 miles off the coast of San Diego, California) since it had been entered in the Billabong XXL wave contest and been "officially" measured. I believe this 90ft wave will also be entered in the contest, so hopefully we can get an "official" measurement on it, but as of right now 90ft just seems to be a claim being thrown out there.

Forecast Yesterday: 20% chance of rain for this part of PR...

Forecast Today: 60% chance of rain for this part of PR...

Anybody know what storm produced the highest wave ever (not surfed)?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Almost.

We'll still see Tammy and Vince though, me thinks.

This season doesn't deserve to potentially beat last year. We've only had six hurricanes.

Quoting KoritheMan:


This season doesn't deserve to potentially beat last year. We've only had six hurricanes.

Number of storms is number of storms, the low number of hurricanes doesn't make this season any less notable.

We finally got our first snow, nearly a month late (though record is 2 months late). It only accumulated for 15 minutes, as it was 6C out with a windchill of 4C. For this time of year it's t-shirt weather.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody know what storm produced the highest wave ever (not surfed)?

Not caused by a storm but eh:
Link
And BTW google is your friend :)

SW Caribbean looks kind of interesting.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Here's a longer video of the 90ft wave




Also, while the wave is currently claimed as being "90ft tall and the tallest wave ever surfed" I'm quite positive it is still an unofficial claim. Ken Bradshaw surfed a wave at Outer Log Cabins, Hawaii that was also claimed to be 85ft in 1998 which should be the largest wave ever surfed, but the record books officially recognize Mike Parson's 77ft wave at Cortez Bank (100 miles off the coast of San Diego, California) since it had been entered in the Billabong XXL wave contest and been "officially" measured. I believe this 90ft wave will also be entered in the contest, so hopefully we can get an "official" measurement on it, but as of right now 90ft just seems to be a claim being thrown out there.

that 90foot wave can overe turn ships if one haveing too be in the way of it

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Number of storms is number of storms, the low number of hurricanes doesn't make this season any less notable.

Meh.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody know what storm produced the highest wave ever (not surfed)?

The tallest wave ever occurred at Lituya Bay, Alaska, as a result of a landslide created by an earthquake. It was 1,740 feet tall.

The tallest wave by a storm was 112 feet as recorded by the USS Ramapo in 1933 in a typhoon near the Philippines. Hurricane Ivan was also recorded to have waves as high as 90ft, and possibly even waves as high as 130ft but the instruments scientists were using had failed (Link). There have also been claims of 100ft waves at Mavericks, a surf spot in California.

Anyway, keep in mind these are recorded and observed waves. There have probably been many larger waves and we just haven't been around to measure them. The largest waves (produced by storms) most likely occur in the most powerful tropical cyclones (cat 4/5) with long tracks. Reason for that is because wave size is determined by wind speed, wind duration, and wind fetch (size of area wind is blowing over). Extratropically, I'd expect the Southern Ocean to produce the largest waves as it has the strongest pressure gradients and largest expanses of open ocean when compared to the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody know what storm produced the highest wave ever (not surfed)?

We'll never know, but I'm sure some storms have produced waves that are just... unfathomable (heh, heh)

Ivan though recorded a wave somewhere between 90 and 130ft high.

And while two storms is possible, I don't know if we'll see it. In fact, I don't think so. Be good to have this season in the book and out the way.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody know what storm produced the highest wave ever (not surfed)?

Igor produced a 83.6-foot wave off the coast of Newfoundland, as well as an unconfirmed 92 foot wave. Definitely not the highest wave, though.

those sure are some wierd looking large contrail like clouds west of oreagon!!!!!!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Number of storms is number of storms, the low number of hurricanes doesn't make this season any less notable.

Yeah it definitely does lol.

If you had 18 storms that were all cat 5s it would absolutely be more notable than a season with 18 storms that all failed to achieve hurricane status.

..Now that's an extreme example, but it proves a point. Why do you think they came up with things like ACE, PDI, or HDP? They all were intended to provide other ways of measuring tropical activity without looking at just tropical storm numbers or hurricane counts.

Quoting KoritheMan:


This season doesn't deserve to potentially beat last year. We've only had six hurricanes.

I'd agree.

I wouldn't say it doesn't deserve to beat 2010, but I would say that if 2011 passed 2010 in terms of total number of storms, 2010 should still be recognized as the more active season.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Seriously quiet day in here...

Well I'm here to talk. Anyone have anything to discuss?

Quoting TomTaylor:
I'd agree.

I wouldn't say it doesn't deserve to beat 2010, but I would say that if 2011 passed 2010 in terms of total number of storms, 2010 should still be recognized as the more active season.

I haven't checked but I am sure 2010 beats this year decisively from an ACE standpoint.

12z Euro is hinting at possible subtropical development in just 5 days from now as a trough gets strung out and high pressure builds in behind leaving an ULL around 20-25N. Although it doesn't actually make an actual storm until the end of the loop, my point is that the potential is there in only 5 days, according to this model run. Also should be noted that the ECMWF has been showing similar solutions for the past few runs now.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I'm here to talk. Anyone have anything to discuss?

I say we're going to have Tammy and Vince before the season ends.

12z GFS has also latched onto the ECMWF's idea of subtropical development in 5-10 days around roughly the same area. GFS is a little further north with this idea, however, as it develops the storm around 25-30N, whereas the ECMWF has it further south.

12Z ECMWF @ 168 hours - Subtropical storm developing:

Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I'm here to talk. Anyone have anything to discuss?

Got one to throw in: If there's any season that you could go back in time to study - from a meteorological point of view - which would it be?

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I haven't checked but I am sure 2010 beats this year decisively from an ACE standpoint.

Yeah, it does. 165 to 119.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I say we're going to have Tammy and Vince before the season ends.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tammy, but I'm not sure about Vince. MJO is forecasted to come back, however, it is forecasted to be a lot less amplified this time around. As of right now, it looks like the EPAC is favored to get a storm out of this MJO pulse. We'll see though, we could get something too.

12Z GFS @ 168 hours - Subtropical storm developing:

Quoting Cotillion:


Got one to throw in: If there's any season that you could go back in time to study - from a meteorological point of view - which would it be?



Yeah, it does. 165 to 119.

I thought it was something like that. Maybe a tropical storm or two will form in November/December but even if they do they will probably add just a few points to ACE.

Quoting Cotillion:


Got one to throw in: If there's any season that you could go back in time to study - from a meteorological point of view - which would it be?



Yeah, it does. 165 to 119.

1960, for one reason and one reason only - Ethel.



Highest winds (1-minute sustained): 160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure: 972 mbar (hPa; 28.7 inHg)

Quoting Cotillion:


Got one to throw in: If there's any season that you could go back in time to study - from a meteorological point of view - which would it be?

2005 for sure lol

I was around to hear about what was going on, but I knew nothing about weather or hurricanes. It would have been cool to observe these storms from a meterological perspective. Of course, that doesn't mean I would ever wish for people to have to relive all the death and destruction that accompanied these storms.

By 216 hours in the 12Z run the storm in the mid Atlantic is smeared into oblivion.