A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

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A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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587. nrtiwlnvragn
7:49 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
586. presslord
7:44 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Thats right Press..snow SNOW in da Carolina,s . 10 feet of white hell headed for U. Hope ya got the snowshoes and snowblower ready..he he he.. God i love this post.


I wouldn't know a snowblower if it bit me on the......well...at any rate...I'm unfamiliar with the term....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
585. nrtiwlnvragn
7:39 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
LOL at the HPC Final, setting up a battle of the models.

Excerpt:

THEN COMETH THE 12Z/27 CANADIAN...HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 FROM DAY 4 ONWARD VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/27 ECMWF
WITH SPECTACULAR DIGGING/CLOSING OFF ALOFT NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY
EARLY TUE. THE SCORE IS EVEN WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF/00Z/27 ECENS MEAN PITTED AGAINST THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS
MEAN/UKMET. THE NEW 12Z/27 ECMWF PLAYS UP A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/ERN TROF TUE/WED BUT HAS THE SAME IDEA
AS PREVIOUSLY...FORECASTING THE A DAY 8 STORM FOR THE E COAST
INSTEAD OF DAY 7. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FINAL
GRAPHICS ARE STAYING UNCHANGED...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE BACK END
TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
584. VAbeachhurricanes
7:35 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
satan flakes....fer yoooo


just his dandruff, give that man some head and shoulders.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5706
583. hydrus
7:33 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting presslord:
snow is evil...it is of Satan...
satan flakes....fer yoooo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19604
582. Skyepony (Mod)
7:29 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
It's no Chalk's Cliff but Volusia county taxpayers are going to foot the bill to fix the sea wall that eroded away at Sunglow Resort earlier this month. The seawall was on land the resort leases from the county but failed to fix the wall as ordered by the county~ ironically because the permits took to long to pull before the ocean destroyed it.


Quoting Tazmanian:




is there a point too this ???


I thought it was just to encourage a good DOOM comment like.. & more birds are falling from the sky.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36162
581. hydrus
7:29 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting presslord:


Ugh!
Thats right Press..snow SNOW in da Carolina,s . 10 feet of white hell headed for U. Hope ya got the snowshoes and snowblower ready..he he he.. God i love this post.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19604
580. presslord
7:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
snow is evil...it is of Satan...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
579. palmbaywhoo
7:23 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Thanks StormTracker
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
578. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 27 2011
===================================

Cyclonic Storm "Thane" Over Southeast And Adjoining Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered near 12.5N 86.5E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal from 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 90.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean heat thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model prediction, it is expected to le in phase 5 during next 5 days. the phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence helps in west northwest movement of the system. The low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate. There is no significant change in wind shear during past 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.N 83.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 80.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
577. StormTracker2K
7:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting palmbaywhoo:


What is the timing for this storm?


Looks like starting Sunday but the main thrust of this storm looks like might be from Tuesday thru Thursday starting in the SE US then spreading North toward New England.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
576. weatherbro
7:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
What a significant storm being depicted on the models with some freakish cold air behind it! CMC model.



Well it's about time! Bring on the cold baby!:)
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
575. palmbaywhoo
7:14 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very dangerous storm on the Euro and it's been showing up on the Euro now since Friday. This will cause chaos for millions trying to get back home from Christmas break. Folks this is a blizzard coming up the Appalachians to the NE US.



What is the timing for this storm?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
574. presslord
7:13 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Big snow event for the SE US especially the Appalachian Mtns which could get dumped on.



Ugh!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
573. StormTracker2K
7:12 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Very dangerous storm on the Euro and it's been showing up on the Euro now since Friday. This will cause chaos for millions trying to get back home from Christmas break. Folks this is a blizzard coming up the Appalachians to the NE US.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
572. RevElvis
7:10 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
"States may lose crucial flood-predicting tools"

Link
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
571. StormTracker2K
7:06 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Big snow event for the SE US especially the Appalachian Mtns which could get dumped on.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
570. Tazmanian
6:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 359 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.




is there a point too this ???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
569. StormTracker2K
6:50 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:
Erosion Hits Famous German Coastal Cliffs
Photo Gallery: Disaster on Rugen Photos DPA

Forever immortalized in canvas by painter Caspar David Friedrich, the chalk cliffs on the German island of Rugen have been a major tourist draw for two centuries. In recent years, however, the cliffs have suffered from major erosion. Now, following a landslide that took down part of a cliff near the Kap Arkona cape on Monday afternoon, a 10-year-old girl is missing.

The landslide struck the girl, her mother and a sister. Emergency workers were able to rescue the seriously injured mother and lightly injured sister, who were taken to a hospital. More than 100 rescue workers continued through the night searching for the young girl, who they believe is buried beneath the chalk sludge. With low temperatures, local officials said the chances of finding the child alive were slim.

Link



The cliffs were immortalized in a famous painting by Caspar David Friedrich in the 1800s and have been a major tourist draw in Germany.


WOW!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
568. StormTracker2K
6:45 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
GFS only model not showing this. GFS has been garbage compared to the other Global Models.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
567. sunlinepr
6:43 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Erosion Hits Famous German Coastal Cliffs
Photo Gallery: Disaster on Rugen Photos DPA

Forever immortalized in canvas by painter Caspar David Friedrich, the chalk cliffs on the German island of Rugen have been a major tourist draw for two centuries. In recent years, however, the cliffs have suffered from major erosion. Now, following a landslide that took down part of a cliff near the Kap Arkona cape on Monday afternoon, a 10-year-old girl is missing.

The landslide struck the girl, her mother and a sister. Emergency workers were able to rescue the seriously injured mother and lightly injured sister, who were taken to a hospital. More than 100 rescue workers continued through the night searching for the young girl, who they believe is buried beneath the chalk sludge. With low temperatures, local officials said the chances of finding the child alive were slim.

Link



The cliffs were immortalized in a famous painting by Caspar David Friedrich in the 1800s and have been a major tourist draw in Germany.



Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
566. StormTracker2K
6:43 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
One heck of a blizzard looks to be in store for the Northeast with very strong Gales for Coastal New England with significant beach erosion. Euro below!



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
565. StormTracker2K
6:40 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
What a significant storm being depicted on the models with some freakish cold air behind it! CMC model.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
564. sunlinepr
6:39 PM GMT on December 27, 2011


Iran threatens to block oil shipments in Strait of Hormuz if oil sanctions are imposed on the country
Posted on December 27, 2011

December 27, 2011 – TEHRAN – Iran’s first vice-president warned on Tuesday that the flow of crude will be stopped from the crucial Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if foreign sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, the country’s official news agency reported. “If they (the West) impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” IRNA quoted Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying. About a third of all sea-borne oil was shipped through the Strait in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and U.S. warships patrol the area to ensure safe passage. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have increased since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Nov. 8 that Tehran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has warned it will respond to any attack by hitting Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf, and analysts say one way to retaliate would be to close the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – together with nearly all the liquefied natural gas from lead exporter Qatar – must slip through a 4-mile (6.4 km) wide shipping channel between Oman and Iran. (Writing by Ramin Mostafavi, editing by Jane Baird) –Reuters
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
563. WeatherNerdPR
6:38 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
562. AtHomeInTX
5:50 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


How far south are we talking here? That ridge looks like it is well into the Texas area. Perhaps some freezing temps for highs in SE Texas?


Shush David!  ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
561. DavidHOUTX
5:35 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of the south could be digging out of snow this time next week as the coldest air thus far is being depicted here on the Euro. Also this could produce severe wx here in FL before the first freeze arrives. It should be noted that the GFS does not show this at all but the Euro has now for days. So my bets are the Euro is on to something here.





How far south are we talking here? That ridge looks like it is well into the Texas area. Perhaps some freezing temps for highs in SE Texas?
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
560. Skyepony (Mod)
5:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Had another flock of birds fall out of the sky in KY..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36162
559. MissNadia
5:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2011


Tornado Warning
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on December 27, 2011


The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
eastern Brunswick County in southeast North Carolina
southern New Hanover County in southeast North Carolina

* until 1245 PM EST

* at 1219 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 12 miles south
of Oak Island... or about 19 miles southeast of Shallotte... moving
northeast at 55 mph.

* Some locations in the warning include...
Long Beach...
Southport...
Boiling Spring Lakes...
Carolina Beach...
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2879
558. Patrap
4:58 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
There are now 359 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125710
557. Skyepony (Mod)
4:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
A Vietnamese ship together with 23 crewmen has gone missing off the Philippines, Vietnam Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Center (VMRCC) said Monday. The center quoted Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines) as saying that its ship, Vinalines Queen, was at 20-00N; 123-47.1E off the Luzon Island before the company lost contact with it on Sunday. It tilted 18 degrees before disappearing, Vinalines added. VMRCC has asked for help from the research and rescue centers of Taiwan and the Philippines. However, because of bad weather, they have yet to access the site where the ship -- which was carrying 54,400 tons of nickel ore from Morowali in Indonesia to China’s Ningde City -- went missing. A report on VnExpress on Tuesday said the Vietnamese center also informed the forces of Hong Kong and Japan of the accident for cooperative research efforts. So far the ship and its crewmen are nowhere to be found. According to the newswire, the center will probably assign helicopters to the site to search for victims.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36162
556. Patrap
4:47 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
555. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
554. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:20 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Kinda weird quake struck Siberia

THis is the current isobar map of the ATL

I do not understand why that 994 mb low in CnATL has hurricane force winds and that one to its northeast is developing hurricane force winds having lower BarPressure to 984 mb?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
553. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on December 27, 2011


Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREENDownload Alert PDFWhat's this?


Tuesday, December 27th, 2011 at 15:21:56 UTC (23:21:56 local)
Location: 51.9° N, 95.8° EDepth: 6km
Event Id: USC0007DAX
Alert Version: 1
Created: 26 minutes, 50 seconds after earthquake.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125710
552. Patrap
4:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Magnitude 6.6 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2011 December 27 15:21:56 UTC





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125710
551. fireflymom
4:09 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.




DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION


27-DEC-2011 15:21:56
51.86
95.82
6.6
6.9
SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
550. StormTracker2K
4:03 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Accuweather has lows near the freezing mark in C FL next week with highs in the 50's.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
549. StormTracker2K
3:58 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS STILL SKETCHY...




Preliminary Day 7 Min Temps




Yup say what you want but the Euro has had a much better track record than the GFS. Also it has support with a negative NAO next week.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
548. Patrap
3:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125710
547. nrtiwlnvragn
3:54 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
HPC Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS STILL SKETCHY...




Preliminary Day 7 Min Temps


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
546. Skyepony (Mod)
3:28 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Thane (not the best TRMM pass ever)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36162
545. Articuno
2:50 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Yesterday was the 7 year anniversary of the 2004 tsunami.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
544. hurricane23
2:38 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
00z run of ECMWF with cold/snow for East Coast looks overamplified and unlikely to occur in my opinion.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
543. StormTracker2K
2:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As we all have seen with Hurricanes and intensity, as the ECMWF in 2010 had Fiona hitting Florida as strong as Katrina at peak, the EURO can sometimes overdue the strength of a cold snap.

No way -10 degree weather will get to FL this year.

Strong El Nino year with a different AO, maybe.


That -10 line isn't at the surface it's more like at 5,000 ft. The surface temps would likely be in the 40's & 50's for highs with lows in the 20's & 30's.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
542. AussieStorm
2:30 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Cyclone Grant likely to reform over Gulf



Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to reform into a category one cyclone on Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a new tropical cyclone watch which predicts Grant, about 95 kilometres south of Jabiru, will begin moving east tomorrow.

The bureau says it will then cross the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone about 1pm (local time).

It says heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in low-lying areas over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts.

Tides will also be higher than normal between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt, and large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Senior forecaster Graeme King says the system is slowly moving south-east.

"It's going to cross the Gulf of Carpentaria coast early Thursday and pass out into open waters somewhere near Groote Eyland," he said.

"We think at this stage it's still quite a well developed low, so the chances of it developing into a cyclone on Thursday are reasonable at this stage."

What remains of Grant has already dumped torrential rain across the northern Top End, causing havoc to transport and leaving dozens of people stranded in floodwaters.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain were recorded in many areas last night and waters rose quickly near Katherine, south of Darwin.

Flood havoc



In one incident a , trapping two of the drivers.

One of the drivers had to be airlifted to Royal Darwin Hospital with back injuries.

Member for Katherine, Willem Westra Van Holthe, said carriages could be seen floating downstream.

"It's what I'd describe as a scene of devastation here," he said.

"Apart from the enormous amount of water flowing across the road, there's sheets of bitumen that have been lifted off and carried away and also it appears as though the train tried to get across this morning while the river has flooded.

"The train bridge appears to have collapsed and there are carriages in the water."

Bert Easthope from the freight train operator, Genesee and Wyoming Australia, says his company will conduct an investigation into what caused the train to derail.

"We're still working our way through the detail, we'll work with our customers and people like the Australian Transport Safety Bureau to clearly understand what's caused this," he said.

"It's an unfortunate event but we will get to the bottom of it."

Rescued



Meanwhile, Emergency Service volunteers are responding to numerous calls for help and police have closed sections of the Stuart Highway because of flooding.

Local resident Elizabeth Robinson says her family had to wade through chest-deep water to shelter on a bulldozer this morning before they were rescued.

"With three kids, one infant, two women and two blokes and about 50 dogs," she said.

NT police have also rescued two people who were swept off the roof of their car on the Edith River Bridge after it aquaplaned and stalled.

They were able to cling to a tree about 50 metres downstream and were rescued a short time later.



Roads remain cut and Katherine Police Commander David Proctor says several people are stuck in their cars, caught between floodwaters.

"At the moment we are trying to work out ways to recover them to dry land," he said.

An Aboriginal community near Katherine has also been isolated by floodwaters.

Wendy Wittika from the tiny community of Werrenbun, near Edith Falls, says her home was flooded last night and the family was forced to escape.

"We were sleeping and when I got up I saw the water at our backyard was filling up," she said.

"It kept on raining and raining then my daughter got up and saw the front yard water was filling up, and then when we saw that we were frightened.

"All the children were with us and we got them up last night and we started get all our blankets and sheets, what we needed to move out."


© ABC 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
541. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Philippines death toll rises after grim ocean find.


The death toll from a massive tropical storm in the Philippines has risen to almost 1,250 as salvage teams recover more bodies of those killed in flash flooding.

The civil defence office initially said the confirmed number of fatalities had surged by more than 200 to 1,453, before revising the figure down to 1,249 due to double-counting.

Authorities are warning the eventual number of confirmed dead could hit 2,000.

Navy and coastguard boats are still pulling bodies out of the water around the battered island of Mindanao.

Residents trying to salvage belongings from collapsed homes are also grimly recovering the bodies of their neighbours.

Last week's storm caused sudden and deadly overnight flash flooding that washed away coastal homes built on sandbars and riverbanks.

Floods have submerged towns in Leyte province in the east central Philippines and in Agusan and Surigao provinces in the south-east.

The rains were brought by a low pressure system over Mindanao which is expected to dissipate in the next two days.

But disaster officials say it could take up to six months to build housing for the 60,000 people left homeless by the floods.

Philippines Red Cross chairman Richard Gordon says they are trying to find housing that will not be swept away by future storms.

"We're still having problems in the sense that we would have to now look at the situation in terms of long-term housing," he said.

"The problem is the land. We need to have safe land. Land that will not be threatened by any earthquakes or any floods or any landslides."

Meanwhile, the health secretary and a team of doctors are visiting evacuation centres where around 5,000 people have been reported sick with colds, fever and diarrhoea due to sanitation problems.

The United Nations has called for $28 million in aid to clear debris and to provide shelter, food and water.


- ABC

© ABC 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
540. CybrTeddy
2:20 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
As we all have seen with Hurricanes and intensity, as the ECMWF in 2010 had Fiona hitting Florida as strong as Katrina at peak, the EURO can sometimes overdue the strength of a cold snap.

No way -10 degree weather will get to FL this year.

Strong El Nino year with a different AO, maybe.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
539. SPLbeater
1:40 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
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Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
538. StormTracker2K
1:11 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

So 14 degrees at 5000 feet in early January? Doesn't sound too bad. Welcome, in fact, after this very warm December, where it's been a little to much above normal 22 of this month's 26 days (and 15 of the last 17 in November). FWIW, the 10-day forecasts I'm seeing show just a minor dip in temps for next Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on what the Euro is seeing.


Yeah, I don't know if the Euro is over doing things or what but it is interesting that the Euro has been on this since last Friday while ther GFS doesn't even hint at that scenario but then again the GFS has not been good at all lately. I will say though the GFS did show this a week ago and at that time it was 14 to days out and that run is similar to todays Euro.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
537. Neapolitan
1:05 PM GMT on December 27, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Ouch the -10 degree line on the Euro is all the way down to N FL.

So 14 degrees at 5000 feet in early January? Doesn't sound too bad. Welcome, in fact, after this very warm December, where it's been a little to much above normal 22 of this month's 26 days (and 15 of the last 17 in November). FWIW, the 10-day forecasts I'm seeing show just a minor dip in temps for next Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on what the Euro is seeing.

(It's interesting to note how warm the western half of the country is forecast to be while the east cools off a bit.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.