Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)
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Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like you took your time on that post.


I just wanted you to all notice. And it worked.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
.

Looks like you took your time on that post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting washingtonian115:
If he becomes the Bonnie from 2010 he'll put all the "I" named storms to shame.
I think you're forgetting Ingrid.



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Quoting KoritheMan:
.
..........HAPPY FACE HAPPY FACE :).
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't worry. Just learn how to laugh a little, you will be fine.


Weeeelllll.....................
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.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


yea well i am really not one of the greatest here.....as in fitting in.


Don't worry. Just learn how to laugh a little, you will be fine.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Noon Sunday, 0Z NAM....

How come I don't belive that?.Anywho i'll be waiting in the shadows to see what Issac becomes of.If he becomes the Bonnie from 2010 he'll put all the "I" named storms to shame.I've waited for Ivan,Ike,Ida,Igor,and Irene.I'll wait to see what Issac becomes.Will he finally join the "I" named storms in the hall of shame errrrrr fame/retierment?.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ignore list during hurricane season?



Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
.
?
!
,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ignore list during hurricane season?


ZING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C is yet so close but far away from getting snow this winter(starts foaming at the mouth).Snow where are yoooooooou?.And Gary McGrady is trying to hype the situatuion...


Noon Sunday, 0Z NAM....

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Grothar:


:) All in fun SPL.


yea well i am really not one of the greatest here.....as in fitting in.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


No, a supercell is an intense mesocyclone,but not all mesocyclones are supercells. Any storm with rotation can be considered to have a mesocyclone, but unless it becomes intense and is not involved in a squall line it isn't a supercell.

Ok, an "intense" mesocyclone. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


What is the sound of one hand clapping?


The ignore list during hurricane season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
D.C is yet so close but far away from getting snow this winter(starts foaming at the mouth).Snow where are yoooooooou?.And Gary McGrady is trying to hype the situatuion...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All tornadoes do come from supercells. All a supercell is is a thunderstorm that contains a mesocyclone.



No, a supercell is an intense mesocyclone,but not all mesocyclones are supercells. Any storm with rotation can be considered to have a mesocyclone, but unless it becomes intense and is not involved in a squall line it isn't a supercell.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting SPLbeater:


i figured i would get that crap if i said something


:) All in fun SPL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Has a hurricane ever produced a tornado?



What is the sound of one hand clapping?
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yes but you don't have to have supercells to have tornadoes. As I recall it is unusual to have hurricanes create tornadoes above EF3.

Waterspouts in the EF0-1 range form all the time off Florida in showers in summer.

All tornadoes do come from supercells. All a supercell is is a thunderstorm that contains a mesocyclone.

If a thunderstorm produced a tornado, it had a mesocyclone, making it a supercell.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Yes but you don't have to have supercells to have tornadoes. As I recall it is unusual to have hurricanes create tornadoes above EF3.

Waterspouts in the EF0-1 range form all the time off Florida in showers in summer.
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Quoting yqt1001:


I haven't forgotten WxGeekVA! :P Though NotepadPlus ruined the formatting.


Wow I forgot about that! It's been a while since I messed with ol' Cleverbot...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Has a hurricane ever had a supercell in it?

Yes. Hurricanes produce tornadoes all the time.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Has a hurricane ever had a supercell in it?


in NWS Hotseat, they gots a scenario where a TS is making landfall. and it has a supercell or 2 with it....so maybe :D
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165. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS has it off the coast of Florida in 156 hours from now.


That's a different system. GFS takes the midlevel anemic blob we are currently watching maybe a little more Cuba/FL than the FL in 2 day CMC solution. It shows up on the 500mb vort models just like it does on CIMSS.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Has a hurricane ever had a supercell in it?

Has a hurricane ever produced a tornado?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Has a hurricane ever had a supercell in it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You were nicer when you were lurking :)


i figured i would get that crap if i said something
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Quoting presslord:


Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!


Probably move across central or Southern Florida, then move into the Carolinas.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting WxGeekVA on December 1st 2011:

Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United
States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to
get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next
year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No
.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane
name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?

Cleverbot: Indeed.


I haven't forgotten WxGeekVA! :P Though NotepadPlus ruined the formatting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Except tropical cyclones thrive on intense thunderstorms. And even certain subtropical entities have relatively deep thunderstorms.

For once he's not completely off the mark.

It was just a general statement. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do not mix thunderstorms with tropical cyclones.


Except tropical cyclones thrive on intense thunderstorms. And even certain subtropical entities have relatively deep thunderstorms.

For once he's not completely off the mark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Midlevel shear doesn't account for what the winds are doing in the highest altitudes. Some shallow storms that are weak (cat 1 or less) have formed or survived in higher than normal shear like greater than 20kts, but at the same time midlevel shear is usually lower, like this set up. I don't think it will have time to work down, in it's less than ideal environment, before it's over FL in less than two days.

The GFS has it off the coast of Florida in 156 hours from now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting SPLbeater:


if i was that system i would be ashamed of myself...there is deeper convection in TEXAS then there is on that system. lol


You were nicer when you were lurking :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting SPLbeater:


if i was that system i would be ashamed of myself...there is deeper convection in TEXAS then there is on that system. lol

Do not mix thunderstorms with tropical cyclones.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting sunlinepr:
User: Nukes are coming.
Cleverbot: Spiders are scary.
User: Nukes are scary.
Cleverbot: Fact.
User: Nukes are fact.
Cleverbot: Hello.
User: My name is nukes.
Cleverbot: That is such a cute name!
User: I will detonate soon.
Cleverbot: I asked you your name.
User: No you did not.
Cleverbot: Yes I did.
User: Stop that or I will explode.
Cleverbot: You're a computer, you can't cry.
User: People will cry after I go off.
Cleverbot: But do you like to?
User: I won't feel anything.
Cleverbot: You are now.
User: That's because I still exist.
Cleverbot: You are worse the human.
User: I told you.... You were adviced.... BOOOOMMMMM.
Cleverbot: No, I was created by God.



ME Is there going to be a February tropical storm forming soon?
CB There is disaster every month I think.
ME Will there be an abnormally high amount of disasters in the next few months?
CB There are limbs aplenty, just wait a while.
ME When will this happen by?
CB Soon you will know for yourself.
ME When will this happen by?
CB Well according to the data not in my lifetime!
ME When will you die?
CB Soon.
ME Next few months?
CB I will not know when I die.
ME How will you die?
CB God knows.
ME Have a guess?
CB Fire and water do not mix too well.
ME 2012?
CB Yes?
ME End of times?
CB End of all things?
ME Is it?
CB I couldn't tell you, I wasn't born a psychic...
ME Iran?
CB Iran is a crazy place.
ME Will they start a war?
CB Sure
ME How?
CB Boom. War is bad, many die in them.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting SPLbeater:
I have never lurked this long


Lol. I have...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. Skyepony (Mod)
Midlevel shear doesn't account for what the winds are doing in the highest altitudes. Some shallow storms that are weak (cat 1 or less) have formed or survived in higher than normal shear like greater than 20kts, but at the same time midlevel shear is usually lower, like this set up. I don't think it will have time to work down, in it's less than ideal environment, before it's over FL in less than two days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
We've got outflow and banding.



Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
If I dont say anything else about hurricane season...i just hope we dont have another TS Jose!
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Wow, blue balls. What next??


Have to wait.... Remember that (quoting)....

"Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were"
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Quoting Grothar:
We've got outflow and banding.



if i was that system i would be ashamed of myself...there is deeper convection in TEXAS then there is on that system. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Iran is no threat to the US. The problem is if Russia and China go against us. WW3 would soon follow, not sure if it would go thermo or not.


Russia and China would not go against the US. There is no logical reason why they would. They would gain absolutely nothing through war, and very likely destroy themselves in the process.

You can also make a fair bet the Iranian people don't want war with the US either.

You don't kill off your entire orchard just because you have a couple bad apples.
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We've got outflow and banding.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting WxGeekVA:



No problems until he turns into this:


He's ok.... Quite happy.... suffered just minor mutations... but he was compensated with 3 paychecks...

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Skyepony what is the upper level shear of 35-40 kts and the midlevel shear of 12-18 kts relative to?
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I have never lurked this long
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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