Giovanna hits Madagascar; major damage likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:07 PM GMT on February 14, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone Giovanna powered ashore along the east coast of Madagascar as a destructive Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC last night. Winds at the coastal city of Tamatave, 70 miles north-northeast of where the center came ashore, peaked at 52 mph, gusting to 71 mph. Giovanna is moving west across the island at 17 mph, and passed just south of the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm at 8 am local time Tuesday morning. The eyewall missed Antananarivo , and the peak winds in the city were 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Microwave satellite imagery from the Navy Research Lab in Monterrey showed that Giovanna had rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour at landfall, and it is likely that the storm dumped 5 - 10 inches of rain along much of its path. The heaviest rains fell on deforested mountain slopes that drain into some of the most densely populated regions on the island, so major flood damage is likely. Heavy wind and storm surge damage undoubtedly occurred where the core of the storm hit the island, as well.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 7:15 UTC Tuesday February 14, 2012. Seven hours previous to this time, Giovanna was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds, but had probably weakened to a Category 1 storm by the time this picture was taken. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Madagascar has significantly weaken Giovanna, and the cyclone will move into the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm later today. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Giovanna may reintensify over water, and swing around and pass very close to the south tip of Madagascar early next week. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar this weekend.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 02:44 UTC Tuesday, February 14, 2012. The cyclone was still a well-organized Category 2 storm at this time, five hours after landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Jeff Masters

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394. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:32 AM GMT on February 16, 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15 /leak-exposes-heartland-institute-climate

Quote:
Heartland operates on a range of issues besides the environment. But discrediting the science of climate change remains a key mission. The group spends $300,000 on salaries for a team of experts working to undermine the findings of the UN climate body, the IPCC.

It plans to expand that this year by paying a former US department of energy employee to write an alternative curriculum for schoolchildren that will cast doubt on global warming. The fundraising plan notes the anonymous donor has set aside $100,000 for the project.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
393. Skyepony (Mod)
6:35 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.


Maybe they made bestforecast the default setting or something.. Guess it's past time to make the leap.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38155
392. sunlinepr
6:22 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Iran denies cutting off oil exports to six EU countries, heralds nuclear advances
Reuters Feb 15, 2012 – 8:06 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 15, 2012 8:33 AM ET

Richard Johnson/National Post Graphics By Parisa Hafezi

TEHRAN — Iran’s Oil Ministry denied state media reports on the Islamic state stopping its crude exports to six European countries on Wednesday.

“We deny this report … If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” a spokesman for the ministry told Reuters.

Iran’s English language Press TV had earlier said Tehran has stopped exporting oil to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain.

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
391. RitaEvac
5:06 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
390. Neapolitan
5:02 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.
Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
389. Skyepony (Mod)
4:56 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting Inyo:
A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?


WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38155
388. GeorgiaStormz
4:55 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
So far the SPC is not concerned...yet.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
387. MTWX
4:35 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Storms are starting to fire up quite rapidly west and north of Houston... Link
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
386. Neapolitan
4:34 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting bappit:

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.
True. FWIW, a large number of pluses on many of my comments on this blog and others over the past few days have been by the same four or five sock puppets: NaplesFLBreeze, EllenPettit, NaplesWebDesigner56, EPAsupporter56, Xvrus2000,and even the very tiresome GiovannaDatoli. For the record, those are not mine, though they were obviously intended to look that way. No, I've had and used this one handle and only this one handle the entire time I've been on WU. (The obsessed owner of those sock puppets has created literally dozens of them. Many have been banned, and for good reason. But the poor little dude just keeps making more. Sigh...)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
385. bappit
4:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting skook:
How does the + comment work?

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
384. SherwoodSpirit
4:24 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Damn you Neapolitan, you climate thug! How dare you continue to counter ignorance with FACTS.
Tsk tsk. ;)
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
383. skook
4:17 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
How does the + comment work?
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
382. Neapolitan
4:07 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Meanwhile in Madagascar:

--A least 10 deaths are confirmed with the passage of Giovanna

--"From the East coast we received reports of damage and human loss caused by heavy winds and flooding.” said Dominic Stolarow, UNICEF’s Emergency Coordinator in Madagascar.

--According to an impromptu aerial survey, 70% of the buildings in Brickaville have been destroyed or damaged.

--...and 60% of the buildings in the district capital of Vatomandry have been destroyed or damaged.

--Up to a million people may have suffered some of the harshest effects of the storm.

--There's currently no communication with the hardest hit areas.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
381. hydrus
4:04 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
5 day snowfall acc.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
380. hydrus
4:02 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
379. hydrus
3:49 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting Inyo:


yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.
The banks are holding all that money like an addict to its last fix...Its ugly, and it will get worse for the poor and middle class.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
378. wxmod
3:49 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Thailand today. 1000 miles from top to bottom of this MODIS satellite photo.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
377. Neapolitan
3:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!
What is a "climate thug"? If you mean someone who insists on his children and grandchildren having the right to live on a planet not made unlivable (or nearly so) due to the many negative effects of our outlandish fossil fuel consumption, then, okay, yes, I suppose I'm a "climate thug". I've certainly been called worse... ;-)

Anyway, you might be interested to know that the U.S. produced more oil in 2010 than it had since 2003, and even more was siphoned from the earth in 2011. You might also not know that Obama has--unfortunately--opened up millions of previously off-limits acres for oil and gas exploration. You might also like to know that mining for radioactive ores has risen every year under Obama. Ditto hydroelectric. Ditto solar. Ditto wind. Ditto biofuels. (Not to mention that he ended the war in Iraq which had been destabilizing energy prices.) So please explain to us how his policies have caused energy costs to "skyrocket". I'm dying to hear...

Anyway, it's plainly obvious to all that a rapid move away from fossil fuel consumption would be immensely helpful. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where our economies weren't subject to the whims of OPEC's oil sultans. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where smog-belching vehicles weren't clogging every city. Imagine how it would be to live on a planet that wasn't headed for certain catastrophe due to rapid warming.

How anyone--other than an oil company CEO, that is--could not want a part of that world is beyond me.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
376. SPLbeater
3:18 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)


i like that picture, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
375. RTSplayer
3:18 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!


Actually, gasoline prices are cheaper than they were at the end of the Bush regime.

Additionally, while Obama's budget has a huge deficit, you must remember that we are suffering from all the compounded INTEREST from the tax cuts on the insanely wealthy which President Bush made, as well as the failed Iraq and Afghanistan policies under Bush Jr, which his dear old Dad, Bush Senior, along with Reagan and Colin Powell left everyone, ever since going back to the first Iraq war.


You must also remember, that during America's most prosperous time period from the 50's and 60's, the taxes on the wealthy were far, far higher than they are now.


When you see a Tea Party or Replublican on television talking about tax cuts, don't be fooled, that won't help you.

And the idiot that was talking about the "999" plan by cutting income taxes to 9% but adding a federal sales tax? That would actually increase the total tax rate of the lower 50% of earners significantly. In fact, by the time you count state and local sales tax, normal people would be paying 31% tax, and the wealthy would be paying an average of about 15%, since they don't do much spending anyway the sales tax doesn't actually hit everything they have.

so in short, the Tea Party wants to rob from the poor and average and give to the rich! They don't want a middle class either, though they claim to.

They want it all for themselves.

Many of them claim to be Christians, and they are exactly the opposite of Christian social justice.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
374. hydrus
3:18 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
We could always have one of these this March...


On March 12, 1993, a newly formed cyclone moved into a low level baroclinic zone already in place over the Gulf of Mexico and began to rapidly intensify. The deepening cyclone turned northeastward (Fig 1.1) and the center of low pressure made landfall (Fig 1.2) in northwestern Florida during the early hours of March 13. An intense squall line (Fig 1.3) preceding a rapidly moving cold front raced across Florida with torrential downpours, wind gusts in excess of 40 m/s, 3-4 meter storm surges and 11 confirmed tornado touchdowns (Radar Loop (QT-800K)).

Recorded Wind Gusts
Mount Washington, NH
Franklin County, FL
Dry Tortugas, FL
Flattop Mountain, NC mph
144
110
109
101 m/s
64.4
49.1
48.7
45.2
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Also by this time, widespread moderate to heavy snows extended from Alabama to New York (Fig 1.4), virtually paralyzing the eastern third of the country. An intense pressure gradient developed from the rapidly dropping central pressure (Fig 1.5), resulting in strong winds up and down the East Coast.

Record Sea Level Pressures
White Plains, NY
Philadelphia, PA
New York, (JFK)
Dover, DE Inches
28.28
28.43
28.43
28.45 mb
961.1
962.4
962.4
963.0
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Fierce winds coupled with the heavy snow resulted in the cancellation of 25% of the nation's flights on Saturday and Sunday, interstates were impassable and millions were without power at one point in time or another during the passage of the storm.

Recorded Snowfall Totals
Mt. Mitchell, NC
Grantsville, MD
Snowshoe, WV
Syracuse, NY Inches
50
47
44
43 cm
128.0
120.3
112.6
110.1
Selected text from: NDSR (1995)

More than a foot of snow fell from Alabama into Maine, combined with record cold in the storm's aftermath. Seventy record lows were set on March 14, with an additional 75 that following morning.

Record Low Temperatures
Burlington, VT
Mount LeConte, TN
Asheville, NC
Birmingham, AL F
-12
-10
2
2 C
-24.4
-23.3
-16.7
-16.7
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

When all was said and done, 270 people were dead and total property damage estimates exceeded $3 billion. According to the National Disaster Survey Report (NDSR 1994), twenty-six states were affected, impacting the lives of nearly 100 million people, approximately half the nation's population (Satellite Loop (QT-6M)).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
373. Inyo
3:14 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
and yes, we are just like hitler if we try to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Hitler was all about that, wasn't he? Oh wait, no he wasn't...

google Godwin's Law please.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
372. Inyo
3:12 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe


yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
371. trunkmonkey
3:07 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 582
370. ycd0108
3:03 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
367:
Just north of 49th parallel. Well said Neo!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 179 Comments: 4633
369. RTSplayer
3:01 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
2 Nations that are Bankrupt trying to call the shots

And

Syria blowing Pipelines


We should stay out of Syria.

There are too many opposing factions involved. It is many different terrorist groups, a terrorist government, and even if any of the civilians actually are "good guys" you can't know who's who. Of course, our naive government will try to "police" it all, which will just cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives for no good reason.


Best to use the good "free for all" strategy and let them fight it out.

If we don't like who wins, we can go bust them up later.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
368. fireflymom
3:00 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Yes need coffee or new glasses
Quoting ycd0108:
361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
367. Neapolitan
2:54 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is, unfortunately, infected with the same anti-science, anti-common sense, pro-Big Energy, profit-over-people disease that so many in America are. And, just as with many American pols, he's flip-flopped on environmental issues in tune with the ebb and flow of dollars. In 2007, for instance, he declared that Canada must act to curb GW; he now claims he was wrong and that it's all a socialist hoax. In the Harper mind, only the rapid mass extraction of his nation's filthy and destructive tar sands can make Canada economically viable.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
366. ycd0108
2:45 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 179 Comments: 4633
365. RitaEvac
2:44 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
364. RitaEvac
2:42 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
363. Neapolitan
2:42 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)
Sure thing, Cat5 GeorgiaStormz (I previously erred in accusing you of being one of Cat5's hundred-plus sock puppets he's been using for many months to stir up trouble here; while you certainly fit the description of a climate contrarian, you're not him/her/it. Mea culpa.). ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
362. Inyo
2:41 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
361. fireflymom
2:31 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
The Juan De Fuca plate is subducting
Quoting Patrap:


What's going on under north latitude 37.0 east longitude140.7 ?

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
360. GeorgiaStormz
2:14 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
359. RitaEvac
1:59 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
2 Nations that are Bankrupt trying to call the shots

And

Syria blowing Pipelines
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
358. LargoFl
1:51 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOCAL weatherguy says possible showers this weekend, no mention of a "storm' for the tampabay area as of yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
357. Neapolitan
1:49 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Word from Madagascar is trickling in, and the death toll is slowly creeping upward. Six people were reported killed in Andasibe alone, a small town roughly midway between the capital city of Antananarivo and the Indian Ocean. (Remember that after past disasters in Madagascar, it has been many days--sometimes weeks--before the outside world was able to hear the whole story).

In other disaster news, nearly 300 have been killed in Honduras after a fire broke out at an overcrowded prison.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
356. washingtonian115
1:38 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17081
355. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 84.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.7S 82.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 80.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.4S 74.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is a small size one, with a fluctuating structure shows now a small central dense overcast pattern.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system despite of the improving of both trades and monsoon flows.

System might continue to track west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
354. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 23.4S 41.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.4S 40.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 40.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.2S 39.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.8S 38.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern within a wide low level circulation, convection seems to have trouble rebuilding near the center. System is expected to keep on tracking south south-westward within the next 24 hours on the north-western edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow). Beyond 24 hours, a new mid-level high pressures rebuilds in the southwest of the system. The track beyond 36 hours is the result of the opposite effects of this two cells numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track between 36 hours and 60 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this tau. This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow due to the opposite effects of this two cells, located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system

According to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at tau 60 and beyond. On Sunday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
353. washingtonian115
1:24 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:



Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!
The local meteorologist believes that it'll just be a wintery mix or rain event.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17081
352. GeorgiaStormz
1:23 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting trunkmonkey:



Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!

All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.

Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!


Well I hope you get some snow, I've never seen more than 6 inches of the white stuff.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
351. RMM34667
1:23 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Should be out of there by then RMM, that storm is supposed to hit Florida Saturday and leave Maine by Monday so you should be fine, airports are usually good about clearing out after a day. Plus its only one model run so anything could change, but for now it still looks good.


Thank you!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
350. trunkmonkey
1:15 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
0z GFS running, cmon snowstorm!



Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!

All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.

Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 582
349. snotly
1:14 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
B.S. I read 12.2 CPM on my Geiger counter. Normal background.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Like post 312 video stated "In the US it is going to be a public health issue, meaning that it is unknown right now, who's going to be affected... Time will tell... statistics will show the increase in cancer and deaths as time goes by....

Thanks for that LINK....

Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
348. GeorgiaStormz
1:11 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
I just love how nor'easters start right by GA.
Could snow in the Southern Appalachians though!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
347. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:36 PM GMT on February 15, 2012






Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
346. WxGeekVA
12:10 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
One big Nor'easter to finish off the winter season.




Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:55 AM GMT on February 15, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.3S 177.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM in the eastern semi-circle
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant
40 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Organization has decreased slightly in past 24 hours. Low level circulation was partially exposed few hours ago but is now under dense overcast. Convection remains persistent. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear remains low. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on central dense overcast pattern with irregular edge approximately 90 nautical miles diameter, Yielding DT=3.0, PTt=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on DT. However, due to final Dvorak constraints and past 6 hour final Dvorak being 2.0, current final Dvorak will be 2.5,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southwest movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.2S 177.7W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.2S 177.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
344. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:53 AM GMT on February 15, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 22.4S 42.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 16 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.6S 41.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.2S 40.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.7S 39.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.2S 38.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-Giovanna begins to move away from the western coast of Madagascar by tracking southwestward. low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern.

System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).

Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.

On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.