Heartland Institute documents reveal strategy of attacks against climate science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012

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Documents illegally leaked from the Heartland Institute, one of the most active groups engaged in attacking the science of climate change, provide an unprecedented look into how these groups operate. The story was broken Tuesday by DeSmogBlog, a website dedicated to exposing false claims about climate change science. The documents reveal that donors to Heartland included oil billionaire Charles Koch, and Heartland has spent several million dollars over the past five years to undermine climate science. Tens of thousands of dollars are slated to go this year to well-known climate contrarians S.Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That? website. Naturally, the leaked documents have lit up the blogosphere, but none of the revelations are particularly surprising. The U.S. has a very successful and well-funded climate change denial industry, primarily funded by fossil fuel companies, that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few decades on a PR campaign against climate change science. I made a lengthy post on the subject in 2009 called, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy. I won't say more here, but getenergysmartnow.com has compiled a long list of blogs that have interesting posts on the Heartland Institute affair for those interested in following this story.



Eight books challenging the Manufactured Doubt industry
Important scientific findings should always be challenged with the goal of finding flaws and improving our scientific understanding. But there's nothing a scientist hates more than to see good science attacked and the reputations of good scientists smeared in name of protecting corporate profits or ideology. A number of scientists have fought back against the recent unfounded assaults on climate change science by publishing books calling attention to the Manufactured Doubt industry's tactics and goals. Anyone priding themselves on being a open-minded skeptic of human-caused global warming should challenge their skepticism by reading one of these works. I thought so highly of Unscientific America, Merchants of Doubt, and Climate Coverup, that I donated 50 copies of these books to undergraduates at the University of Michigan last year. Here's a short synopsis of eight books published in the past three years defending climate change science against the attacks of the Manufactured Doubt industry:

Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. If you're going to read one book on the attacks on climate science, this should probably be the one--Dr. Oreskes, a history professor at UC San Diego, was voted climate change communicator of the year in 2011. A review of Merchants of Doubt and a video of her defending her book against skeptics is at climateprogress.org, my favorite website for staying current on the politics of climate change. From the review: "Make the journey with them, and you’ll see renowned scientists abandon science, you’ll see environmentalism equated with communism, and you’ll discover the connection between the Cold War and climate denial. And for the most part, you’ll be entertained along the way."

Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, by desmogblog.com co-founders James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. It's another fascinating and very readable book.

Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, by science writer Chris Mooney. He writes a blog focusing on science communication called the intersection. This is a fantastic book, and should be required reading for all college science majors.

Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand, by Haydn Washington and John Cook. John Cook writes for one of my favorite climate science blogs, skepticalscience.com, which focuses on debunking false skeptic claims about climate science. The book does a great job debunking all the classic climate change denial arguments.

Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health, by George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who now heads the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). This meticulously-researched book has just one chapter on climate change, and focuses more on tobacco and hazardous chemicals. About the the tobacco industry's Manufactured Doubt campaigns, Michaels wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy".

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, by climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann. Dr. Mann is the originator of the much-debated "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures over the past 1,000 years, which looks like a hockey stick due to the sharp increase in temperatures in recent decades. This book just came out last week, and I hope to write a review on it this spring. Dr. Mann is one of the main contributors to my favorite web site for staying current on climate change research, realclimate.org. John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "an eye-opening account of the lengths the opponents of climate science will go to in their campaign to slander climate scientists and distract the public from the realities of human caused global warming."

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto. I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but it looks interesting. A review by Katherine O’Konski of Climate Science Watch called the book "a fascinating look at the status of science in American society."

The Inquisition of Climate Science, by Dr. James Lawrence Powell, a geochemist with a distinguished career as a college teacher, college president, museum director, and author of books on earth science for general audiences. I haven't read it, but John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the full scope of the denial industry and their modern day persecution of climate science."

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be taking a few vacation days next week, and wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz will probably be doing most of the blogging for me during the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 450 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PALACIOS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX. THE SURFACE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AT BEST. HOWEVER...INCREASING MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF
THE LINE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. OTHERWISE...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Commenting on :-418. BobWallace
I was reading the comment on the methane that is going to be a problem because of the dam construction.
If you think about it the size of the area which the dam will flood must be almost insignificant compared to the area of land which will be flooded if the sea levels rise by 2 foot let alone many times that amount.
I suppose for a realistic guess all the flooded areas of land caused by damming in the world will probably not come to 1% of the amount of land that will be flooded by sea level rise.
The inventors of this idea can now change their calculations to take this into account and then add to it all the other human debris which is laying around at more or less sea level which is going to decompose as well.
Bit of a sobering thought for those drunk on speculations.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2149
428. emguy
Unfamiliar about how winter weather impacts may be changing further north...all I know is the winter weather has continued to trend south into my neck of the woods. Two things: A) NWS shows this for Raleigh, NC in their forecast now: 100% chance of freezing rain til 11PM, Snow from 11PM to 2 AM, Snow with freezing Drizzle from 2AM on. In forecast discussion, there is mention that a Winter Storm Watch may need to be posted for portions of northern, central North Carolina. Unexpected to say the least. I'd like to at least see a quick flurry, so if this busts, just give me that and I'm more than content.
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Quoting Jrrtrollkien:


I would rather stick needles in my eyes.


That should win the comment of the year award. It should be highlighted with yellow more so than the admin's colors are. It was just, well, it was just RIGHT.

I'm trying to remember when Jeff Master's blog turned into a climate blog... can't remember. I'm sure Dr. Masters can. I joined a LOONG time ago, for tropical weather.
Oh wait! It's NOT tropical season yet. My bad. In the Northern Hemisphere... but I bet it's tropical in the.... Southern Hemisphere? LOL Again, my bad.... Sorry 'bout that....

A long time ago in a faraway land, Jeff Masters was in a plane and reported data from the eye of a hurricance.. who would have guessed? LOL Now, that's weather. That was Wunderground. That's the company Masters founded. www.weatherunderground.

And, alas, we now have the blog that we have come to love as the former weather blog as a climate change blog. Hey, doesn't somebody else have a blog about that?? Ok, OK, my bad. There are no other blogs on the net about AGW. As a member that comes here daily to learn, I'm so surprised NOT not to find daily weather, or charts, or maps.
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RTS, are you a COMPUTER?
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Quoting SPLbeater:


I AM NOT A WEATHER WEENIE.


I am a weather and adrenaline junkie!!


The first step in overcoming something is to admit it.



I am a "weather weenie".
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
If you could spend 1 second per person to say "Hello" to each person on Earth...

~7 Billion for current world population.

7,000,000,000 seconds
1,944,444.44 hours.
81018.5 days (minus 0.5 it's a palindrome)
221.968 years.

or more precisely:

221 years 353 days 12 hours 26 minutes 40 seconds.


Humans know nothing about humans. how could we?

A billion and a half people have died so far in my life time, and about 3 billion have been born. It would take 3 times average male life expectancy just to make a 1 second greeting to each person alive at an impossible pace and efficiency.

Expert gamers have been shown performing hundreds of actions per minute, while noobs can do a few dozen. If each action is a "thought" then we can assume human performance is somewhere between a few dozen and a few hundred thoughts per minute.

Using 60 thoughts per minute as an average, this means that 7 billion people will have 1.699E19 thoughts during their average of 77 years life expectancy, which is about the square of the number of BITS in your computer's memory.

We can hardly hope to even greet one another, never mind exchange ideas with each and every other person.

We are supposedly social creatures, yet socialization within our own species is impossible due to sheer numbers.

Individuality is an impossibility.

Originality is meaningless.

Nearly anything you can think of, you can be sure someone else has already thought about it, even if they didn't write it down, unless it's based on some absurdly abstract or unknown science or fiction, and even most of fiction is only a matter of changing proper names. Even scientific laws are partially redundant, often falling into almost identical mathematical relationships, with perhaps only variations in a few coefficients' values.

Even "new" science discoveries have often already been thought of long ago. Many things in science fiction are later proven to be fact, or near enough as to make no difference.

Nanotechnology?
Photon computers?
Artificial intelligence
Genetic Engineering
Artificial life?

At one time, all of this was science fiction, even fantasy in some sort, before any of it became fringe science. Now, it is mainstream science and proven true or soon-to-be true.

The large numbers thing also makes you wonder who, or what, counts the alleged 400 to 600 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy, or the alleged 100 billion galaxies in the universe.

The counting would take multiple lifetimes, and even if you used super computers, they'd run out of memory, since they'd need to store data like mass, position, and velocity to avoid double counting. Taking a "sample" survey and then multiplying based on assumed symmetry of galaxies or of the universe itself is potentially introducing further error.


Human population has become astronomical for some many decades now, and just the counting of ourselves would take lifetimes. Can we really know anything about a billion stars without names, only numbers? What about 7 billion, or 9 billion people, most of whom none of us would recognize or know or even think twice about upon passing them by.

7 billion.

Think about it. Who are they? no clue really.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX /INCLUDING TX HILL COUNTRY/ ENE TO PARTS
OF E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 180515Z - 180645Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX /INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY/ ENEWD INTO PARTS OF E TX
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL /AOA 1 INCH
DIAMETER/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW WITH NWD EXTENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FARTHER S...A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITIES/COVERAGE WITH ACTIVITY FROM MAVERICK-MEDINA COUNTIES MAY
PROMPT THE NEED FOR A WATCH ALONG AND JUST N OF THE 01Z SLIGHT RISK
AREA.

MID-LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAD MOVED NWD
A ROW OF COUNTIES IN DEEP S TX SINCE 00Z...WITH THE NEW POSITION
EXTENDING FROM ZAPATA TO KLEBERG COUNTIES...AND EWD INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A
25-30 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM BRO TO SAT RESULTING IN WAA ATOP A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LLANO COUNTY W/SWWD TO VAL VERDE
AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS ATTENDANT TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX WITH THE
APPROACH OF NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL EPISODIC
STRONGER STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NERN EXTENT OF
THE WAA REGIME INVOF CLL.

CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED ELEVATED UPDRAFTS
/SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER AND NE OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY/ WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ALREADY RANGING FROM 40-65 KT AND MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/S TX AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH THE EVENTUAL NEED
FOR A WW ACROSS THE SWRN-SRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..PETERS.. 02/18/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29909497 28989707 28539800 28149933 28129995 28580032
29850078 30750014 31289854 31899528 31129487 29909497
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Quoting bappit:

I wouldn't be so much concerned about CO2 or methane produced from carbon that was recently removed from the air (i.e., by vegetables). Vegetables ought to be able to recapture that fairly easily. The release of CO2 from mineral sources (aka fossil fuels) ... aye there's the rub.

Animal greenhouse gases (aka methane) are just processed vegetables.

Animal, vegetable, mineral. I think that covers it. Here's a picture of the dude for good measure.



Edit: Animal-Vegetable-Mineral Man, of course.


Obviously plants are not keeping up with the CO2 and methane we're releasing.

We can see warming results from when man first begin to grow rice centuries ago. But during the last 100 years we've stepped up our game....


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Quoting BobWallace:


I've read a summary of the claim, but I've not seen the data.

Actually I find it hard to believe that the decaying plant matter from a dam can produce the amount of greenhouse that the dam power is going to avoid over a dam's 50-100 year lifetime. I suspect there's a problem in the reporting. Perhaps avoided greenhouse gases are offset by methane production until the vegetation is used up.

And this claim...

"Seasonal changes in water depth mean there is a continuous supply of decaying material. In the dry season plants colonise the banks of the reservoir only to be engulfed when the water level rises. "

... doesn't hold for any of the reservoirs that I'm familiar with in the West and Southwest. Essentially nothing grows on the banks for the few months that the banks are exposed. For the most part the top soil has been eroded away and only a bit of grass here and there finds a foothold.

I've never seen a drawn down reservoir that anything but bare rock banks in late summer.

But, let's go with the idea that residual vegetation left to rot is a problem. We can deal with that. Simply remove the vegetation prior to flooding the basin.

That's what was done with a new dam close to where I lived in the Sierras. First crews went in and dropped all the trees. Then the public was allowed to haul off the firewood. Finally the brush was piled and burned.

If we wanted to get really green about it we could haul the brush and other vegetation off for processing into compost or fuel.


OK, haven't found the original paper but I've found some more details.

1. This is not a claim about more methane during the lifetime of the dam but only about the first year of the dam.

"In a study to be published in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Fearnside estimates that in 1990 the greenhouse effect of emissions from the Curuá-Una dam in Pará, Brazil, was more than three-and-a-half times what would have been produced by generating the same amount of electricity from oil."

What this says is that for this particular dam (and that distinction is important - see #2) the plant material left to rot is going to offset the first 3.5 years of oil avoidance. Once you hit 3.5 years then the dam wins.

2. This was a very unusual dam/reservoir. It was in an area of very high vegetation and it covered an very large area relative to its total containment volume. The average depth of this reservoir is less than four meters.

The ratio of vegetation to power produced is probably unlike any other dam ever constructed.

Well, perhaps Gatun Lake in Panama would be in its class. But Gatun was not created for power production, but for navigation. It's what ties together the two lock systems in the Panama Canal.
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Back to report the 00Z run of the GFS gives me 2.7 inches of snow :D This will be fun if it verifies!

Now, final goodnight all!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting BobWallace:


I've read a summary of the claim, but I've not seen the data.

Actually I find it hard to believe that the decaying plant matter from a dam can produce ...

I wouldn't be so much concerned about CO2 or methane produced from carbon that was recently removed from the air (i.e., by vegetables). Vegetables ought to be able to recapture that fairly easily. The release of CO2 from mineral sources (aka fossil fuels) ... aye there's the rub.

Animal greenhouse gases (aka methane) are just processed vegetables.

Animal, vegetable, mineral. I think that covers it. Here's a picture of the dude for good measure.



Edit: Animal-Vegetable-Mineral Man, of course.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The methane in our Landfills and water treament is burned because burning it creates CO2 which is a less volatile Green House Gas. However humans do not produce over half the methane not even close, Billions of microorganisms produce methane every second of every day, and the only increase in methane in our atmosphere has been due to methane being released from melting permafrost.


Some methane from landfills and waste water treatment plants is burned off. I can assure you that not all is. I've seen too much open tank water processing and too many massive trash dumps around the world to find that claim believable.

As for human-produced methane...

"Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have increased by about 150% (1,060 ppb) since 1750. The present CH4 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years. Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas with both natural (e.g., wetlands) and human-influenced sources (e.g., agriculture, natural gas activities, and landfills). Slightly more than half of current CH4 emissions are anthropogenic."

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/? src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/017.htm
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Quoting aspectre:
188 BobWallace "We're releasing methane via our drilling/transportation of natural gas.
We're releasing methane via our agricultural practices, in particular our very large herds of cattle and sheep. Burps, not farts.
Farming increases the amount of nitrogen in the soil, which inhibits methane oxidation.
Rice farming creates lots of methane.
Methane is also generated in our landfills and waste water treatment plants.
"

Hydroelectric dams produce significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, and in some cases produce more of these greenhouse gases than power plants running on fossil fuels. Carbon emissions vary from dam to dam, says Philip Fearnside from Brazil's National Institute for Research in the Amazon in Manaus. "But we do know that there are enough emissions to worry about."

In a study to be published in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Fearnside estimates that in 1990 the greenhouse effect of emissions from the Curua-Una dam in Para, Brazil, was more than three-and-a-half times what would have been produced by generating the same amount of electricity from oil.

This is because large amounts of carbon tied up in trees and other plants are released when the reservoir is initially flooded and the plants rot. Then after this first pulse of decay, plant matter settling on the reservoir's bottom decomposes without oxygen, resulting in a build-up of dissolved methane. This is released into the atmosphere when water passes through the dam's turbines.

And as a greenhouse gas, methane is 21times more powerful than carbon dioxide, so hydroelectric power is not greenhouse neutral.


I've read a summary of the claim, but I've not seen the data.

Actually I find it hard to believe that the decaying plant matter from a dam can produce the amount of greenhouse that the dam power is going to avoid over a dam's 50-100 year lifetime. I suspect there's a problem in the reporting. Perhaps avoided greenhouse gases are offset by methane production until the vegetation is used up.

And this claim...

"Seasonal changes in water depth mean there is a continuous supply of decaying material. In the dry season plants colonise the banks of the reservoir only to be engulfed when the water level rises. "

... doesn't hold for any of the reservoirs that I'm familiar with in the West and Southwest. Essentially nothing grows on the banks for the few months that the banks are exposed. For the most part the top soil has been eroded away and only a bit of grass here and there finds a foothold.

I've never seen a drawn down reservoir that anything but bare rock banks in late summer.

But, let's go with the idea that residual vegetation left to rot is a problem. We can deal with that. Simply remove the vegetation prior to flooding the basin.

That's what was done with a new dam close to where I lived in the Sierras. First crews went in and dropped all the trees. Then the public was allowed to haul off the firewood. Finally the brush was piled and burned.

If we wanted to get really green about it we could haul the brush and other vegetation off for processing into compost or fuel.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Might get a drop or two outta this...



yep, I was right. ;)
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Quoting wxmod:


According to infrared imagery these things you are calling jet contrails are sitting right at sea level. And they are 10 to 25 miles wide and a thousand miles long. Pay attention. Your world is changing.

I'm sorry.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
411. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or am I?


According to infrared imagery these things you are calling jet contrails are sitting right at sea level. And they are 10 to 25 miles wide and a thousand miles long. Pay attention. Your world is changing.
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well, goodnight all. be back tomorrow morning..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have a money tree.


I heard parents are effective at growing money, maybe even as effective as the government is at printing money.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have a money tree.


Which doesn't help me now that I'm home. :/
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes.

I mean no. I was too worried about staying past 9:30. Those bastards were gonna pay me!

I have a money tree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or am I?


i dont get what the big deal is about contrails. they never hurt noone. nothin has changed. :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
12:00 PM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.9N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.1N 110.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical depression will move west southwest at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone within stay in high sea surface temperate area

Final Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did you get to roast marshmallows?


Yes.

I mean no. I was too worried about staying past 9:30. Those bastards were gonna pay me!
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Quoting wxmod:


I wish, for all our sakes, that you were correct. You are not.

Or am I?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
It is now 11pm here. I just noticed that this is the 2nd time in 24 hours that I've spent 3 hours straight reading a book. In fact, only one tribute left out of 22.

Damn, the hunger games is an epic book. Almost worrying as to how the books really take place in the last thousand years of humanity...
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
401. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They're airplane trails mixed together with clouds.

99% of the stuff you post is just clouds.


I wish, for all our sakes, that you were correct. You are not.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


no, he probably made then things with chocolate and marshmellows inside of graham crackers...what they called...hmm...

I want smores.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did you get to roast marshmallows?


no, he probably made then things with chocolate and marshmellows inside of graham crackers...what they called...hmm...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting KoritheMan:
So there was a fire at work today. Quickly put out, but still. What a fiasco!

Did you get to roast marshmallows?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
397. wxmod
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
327. wxmod 7:26 PM EST on February 17, 2012
Dr. Frankenstein's monster off San Francisco today (geoengineering, for those who don't know what it's called yet
)

You need to switch dealers. Stuff you're smoking is making you paranoid. Why not worry about a real conspiracy like the one Dr. M wrote about.


No conspiracy here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_reflectivity_m odificationLink
This is another one of the Bill Gates funded Stephen Salter projects. Pay attention. Your world is rapidly changing.
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Quoting wxmod:

Here's a satellite photo of the same type of thing taken a while ago. Hope this helps.

They're airplane trails mixed together with clouds.

99% of the stuff you post is just clouds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting wxmod:

Here's a satellite photo of the same type of thing taken a while ago. Hope this helps.

Looks like a succession of contrails generated from planes flying along about the same routes. As each contrail forms it is carried down wind so you wind up with a succession of separate contrails one after the other more or less parallel to each other. A lot of moisture in the upper levels for them to be that thick.
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394. wxmod
Quoting bappit:

Looks like clouds to me.

Here's a satellite photo of the same type of thing taken a while ago. Hope this helps.
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Some very strong storms in the GoM.

I've been messing around with making gifs. :P
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So there was a fire at work today. Quickly put out, but still. What a fiasco!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain.


ok. thx. that would make the GFS givin me 1.5 inches of snow:D

The GFS forecasts that I look at, measure snow equivalent to liquid. therefore, o got to multiply the forecast amount by 10 inches. :D Simple, eh?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:


you can come to my house if you want.we will have some:D

Does anybody know what 1 inch of rain equals in snow? i have heard 3 inches, 5 inches, 6 inches, 7 inches, 10 inches, 12 inches....not sure.

10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Our snow low is now close enough for the OPC to mark it in their forecast...1007mb low, S TX.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting WxGeekVA:


No need to rub it in....lol


you can come to my house if you want.we will have some:D

Does anybody know what 1 inch of rain equals in snow? i have heard 3 inches, 5 inches, 6 inches, 7 inches, 10 inches, 12 inches....not sure.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just north of...




ah...u know wilmington is where i have 2 friends....both of which are airhead girls....who, despite my knowledge of GENERAL weather, they dont like to listen to anything i tell them!

one is 13 the other 12. they both play with barbies lol xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:


yup. i kinda feel sorry for them VA natives...not lol.


Where did you say you live, ?

Just north of...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
000
FXUS61 KLWX 180253
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

WE HV A WINT STORM WTCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY/SUN NGT FOR THE CENTRAL
SHEN VLLY. 12Z ECM AND 18Z GFS BOTH SHOW THE SFC LOW POSN OVR
CENTRAL AL AT 12Z SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH MID ALTC WAS 7 DEGS ABV NRML
TDA AND WL LKLY DO SO AGN SAT THE SHORT WV COMING THRU THE NERN
U.S. SAT NGT WL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES FM ONTARIO NOSING
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. THIS WL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THAT ALLOWS US TO
TREAT THE SERN LOW AS A PTNL SNOW EVENT RATHER THAN RAIN.

FOR NOW THOSE TWO MDLS RMN IN NEAR LOCK STEP W/ THE TRACK OF THE
LOW - OVR ERN GA ERLY SUN AFTN AND NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SUN EVE.
THE LOW PRES CENTER VALUES AND UPR LVL HGT PATTERN ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL AS WELL. BOTH HV THE LOW WELL E OF THE NC CST BY 06Z
MON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AREAS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FM S
TO N. THE FARTHER N WE GO IN THE CWA THE MORE PRBL POPS WL BE "A GOOD
CHC OF JUST A SMALL AMT OF SNOW."

THERE ARE THINGS THAT CONCERN ME W/ THIS UPCOMING STORM...THE
TRACK OF THE STORM BEING THE GREATEST - THE FURTHER S IT TRACKS
THE LESS MOISTURE MID ATLC WL HV TO WORK W/.

OTHERS ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE:
A) THE AMT OF TIME THAT THE STORM WL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SNOW -
PRBLY ONLY ABT 18HRS AT ANY ONE SPOT DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE
OF THE LOW.
B) LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIO - THIS WL LKLY BE A WET COMPACTIBLE
SNOW.
C) YET ANOTHER IS THE FACT THAT SPC HAS A DAY 2 SVR WX OUTLOOK
ACROSS GA/SC - I`VE SEEN CASES WHERE CNVCTN ACROSS THE GULF STATES
HAS ROBBED MOISTURE FOR THE MID ATLC.

15Z SREF ALSO IMPLYING THE BEST CHCS FOR SIG ACCUM WL BE ACROSS
SRN VA.

SO WHILE THE WTCH IS IN EFFECT ATTM I DON`T SEE A NEED TO XTND
THIS FURTHER N. ATTM...IF ANY AREA HAS THE PTNL FOR 5" (WTCH
CRITERIA) IT IS DFNTLY THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

**00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HV COME IN. THESE CHG NOTHING FM THE THOUGHTS
WRITTEN ABV AN HOUR AGO - THE BEST MOISTURE FOR THE STORM IS OVR
GA/CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SRN VA...LESSGER AMTS FURTHER N.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Some publish research and back it up with pages of verifiable references.

Link

Link

LOL
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Quoting SPLbeater:


yup. i kinda feel sorry for them VA natives...not lol.


Where did you say you live, ?


No need to rub it in....lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The models keep pushing the snow farther and farther south. Towards us. :D


yup. i kinda feel sorry for them VA natives...not lol.


Where did you say you live, ?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:
SO....The 00Z NAM brings more snow to me, bout 3/4 inch.

GFS and NAM seem to be trending towards more snow for me. Sorry WxGeekVA xD.

The models keep pushing the snow farther and farther south. Towards us. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Do your research, write a book, collect $$.

Hey you got proper credentials? I bet I can point you toward some folks who might give you a hefty advance. Oh wait, they don't care about credentials. How well can you write and spin?


Some publish research and back it up with pages of verifiable references.

Link

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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