Eleven deaths in tornado outbreak; new tornado outbreak likely Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2012

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The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.


Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday's tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Yesterday's tornado outbreak's place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak--part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 - 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 - 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday's Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twister that struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.


Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950--an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.

Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.


Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.

New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday's tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!



Jeff Masters

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639. sunlinepr
2:32 AM GMT on March 03, 2012
For those of you following Fukushima, some studies are being published in the National Center for Biotechnology Information webpage mostly about the detection of Fukushima plume over Europe (Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy and other places)...

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?db=pubme d&cmd=link&linkname=pubmed_pubmed&uid=22197531


Study: All of Western US and most of East Coast, Midwest, Canada covered in airborne particles on March 20, Fukushima plume model shows Based solely on Reactor No. 1 explosion

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
638. hurricanehunter27
5:03 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
leading edge of warm sector surges northward clears out south of it as it does
near noon firing line forms along dry line boundry
with rapidly dev super cell thundstorms wide spread tornacic activity likly as line forms some of these storms may exceesd ef4 ratings i see 3 to 5 of these such events possible
Wait exceeding ef4? So your saying 3 to 5 ef5?!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
637. hurricanehunter27
4:59 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
I just got a fox new alert saying there is a tornado destroying homes in Bama! Can't believe tornados are already forming!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
635. WDEmobmet
3:28 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:




I see the second one now that you where refering to. I thought that the one of to the northwest was the only icon.... nevermind
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
634. WDEmobmet
3:27 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
633. AussieStorm
3:27 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
632. jamesrainier
3:26 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1023 AM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKVILLE
TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...
DANVILLE...
MOORESVILLE...
PLAINFIELD...
BELLE UNION...
NEW MARKET...
EMINENCE...
FILLMORE...
BAINBRIDGE...
LITTLE POINT...
CARPENTERSVILLE...
STILESVILLE...
COATESVILLE...
LADOGA...
ROACHDALE...
GROVELAND...
DARLINGTON...
AMO...
NEW ROSS...
MONROVIA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 67.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 60.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
631. GeorgiaStormz
3:26 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021507Z - 021600Z

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021522Z - 021715Z

A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY
LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE
STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...CELLS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
629. GeorgiaStormz
3:23 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
628. jamesrainier
3:23 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Looking on http://www.wunderground.com/tornado/ I see there's a TVS in central IL.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
627. GeorgiaStormz
3:21 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That's a good point. If I remember correctly, we didn't have this convective activity the morning of the April 27th outbreak. Granted, we had extensive cloudiness, but not the type of stuff we have now that would act to destabilize the atmosphere a bit.




Storms on the morning of 4/27
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
626. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:20 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
leading edge of warm sector surges northward clears out south of it as it does
near noon firing line forms along dry line boundry
with rapidly dev super cell thundstorms wide spread tornacic activity likly as line forms some of these storms may exceesd ef4 ratings i see 3 to 5 of these such events possible
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
625. jamesrainier
3:20 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH
MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.
HAZEL GREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
624. jamesrainier
3:18 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 912 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ATHENS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW...HOLLAND GIN...
HARVEST...BETHEL...
TONEY...BLANCHE...
ELKWOOD...TAFT...
HAZEL GREEN...FISK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
623. ncstorm
3:18 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

Minor rotation associated with storms heading to Bladen County, NC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
622. StormTracker2K
3:16 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting WDEmobmet:


looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...


Use this link below to get your EHI values below. This should work.

Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
621. AussieStorm
3:15 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting WDEmobmet:


looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
620. StormTracker2K
3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
These clouds could save the day.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
619. MrstormX
3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.


Hopefully, although I think this precursor event could also make things worse...dropping rain, then the sun comes in and all of it goes steaming up into the atmosphere making for a murky situation. I am currently in the MDT risk zone, I am getting out of here ASAP.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
618. GeorgiaStormz
3:12 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Here you can see the animation of this.
Sun is moving into the high area and the LLJ is breaking up clouds over MS, AL, TN and GA.

\
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
617. Thundercloud01221991
3:11 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That's a good point. If I remember correctly, we didn't have this convective activity the morning of the April 27th outbreak. Granted, we had extensive cloudiness, but not the type of stuff we have now that would act to destabilize the atmosphere a bit.


April 27th had a lot of storms in the morning
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
616. WDEmobmet
3:10 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:




looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
615. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:10 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
613. TheOnlyBravesFan
3:09 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Now, I'm no weather expert (hope to be some day, plan to study meteorology in college), but this is what I expect to be added in one of the next 2 updates. 30% tornado in the High risk area, an extension of 15% tornado as well. Also a 60% wind seems likely over northern Tennessee/southern Kentucky. Not good for this area at all.

Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:09 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
611. StormTracker2K
3:08 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.


I was thinking the samething. The convection is continuing to fire in the high risk region limiting daytime heating. However lot's of breaks in the clouds over western KY, TN, MS, AL, & GA.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
610. AussieStorm
3:07 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 955 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BRAZIL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAZIL...
ROCKVILLE...
GREENCASTLE...
BRIDGETON...
KNIGHTSVILLE...
HARMONY...
CARBON...
BLOOMINGDALE...
REELSVILLE...
LENA...
TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...
MARSHALL...
KINGMAN...
JUDSON...
CLOVERDALE...
YEDDO...
CECIL HARDEN LAKE...
WALLACE...
BELLE UNION...
WAVELAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 48.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



Hail 2.50" heading towards Brazil
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
609. aerojad
3:06 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
1.75" diameter hail just reported by local law enforcement & trained spotters in Terre Haute, IN.
Member Since: June 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
608. StormTracker2K
3:06 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Cape forecast.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
607. Chucktown
3:05 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1664
606. MrstormX
3:05 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053 >057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRAND ENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAIL LES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRING FIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGEN VILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGA NTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBEL LSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON. ..COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /818 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS OHIO. THIS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THESE STORMS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MIDDAY AND WE WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION.

THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG OF OR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AROUND THE I-65
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ROUGHLY AROUND 2-4 PM
EST. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME TORNADOES...POSSIBLY LONG TRACKED AND VERY DAMAGING
TORNADOES AS WELL. AGAIN...THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST...REACHING
SOUTH- CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY MOST
LIKELY AFTER 4-5PM EST...AND STILL REMAINING SEVERE OR TORNADIC.

IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR SEVERE AND TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AS QUICK ACTION WILL
BE NEEDED SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
. CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE...OR VIEW LOCAL MEDIA ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

$$

AL
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
605. StormTracker2K
3:05 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
EHI Values are insane!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
604. jamesrainier
2:59 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 955 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BRAZIL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAZIL...
ROCKVILLE...
GREENCASTLE...
BRIDGETON...
KNIGHTSVILLE...
HARMONY...
CARBON...
BLOOMINGDALE...
REELSVILLE...
LENA...
TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...
MARSHALL...
KINGMAN...
JUDSON...
CLOVERDALE...
YEDDO...
CECIL HARDEN LAKE...
WALLACE...
BELLE UNION...
WAVELAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 48.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
603. LargoFl
2:56 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

MINERAL SPRINGS...
STALLINGS...
MINT HILL...
WINGATE...
UNIONVILLE...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNINGS WITH PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3481 8079 3494 8079 3500 8084
3498 8088 3495 8086 3487 8087 3496 8102
3504 8090 3499 8089 3500 8085 3505 8089
3531 8054 3527 8044 3519 8050 3517 8044
3518 8027

$$

JOH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33469
602. jamesrainier
2:54 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
851 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST

* AT 851 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COURTLAND...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTH OF MOULTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAIRO...TANNER...
CARTWRIGHT...ATHENS...
ELKMONT...FRENCH MILL...
BETHEL...HOLLAND GIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM.



LAT...LON 3499 8674 3483 8658 3467 8709 3469 8710
3466 8711 3461 8728 3478 8741 3500 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 239DEG 47KT 3476 8720
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
601. LargoFl
2:53 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ004-WVZ005-006-013-024>0 26-034-021515-
BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BUCHANAN VA-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-
LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-WAYNE WV-
WYOMING WV-
920 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...CARTER...GREENUP...
LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...LOGAN...MINGO...NORTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN CABELL AND
WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 912 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PAINTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ULYSSES AROUND 930 AM...CLIFFORD AROUND 940
AM...DUNLOW AROUND 950 AM...KIAHSVILLE AROUND 1000 AM...RANGER AROUND
1010 AM AND MYRA AROUND 1020 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 149 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20
IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3874 8300 3875 8287 3858 8281
3876 8265 3782 8156 3729 8228 3753 8199
3755 8213 3768 8231 3795 8252 3788 8263
3799 8293 3796 8300 3800 8303 3811 8290
3817 8292 3826 8316 3819 8324 3832 8334

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33469
600. LargoFl
2:53 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Notice the enhancement across N & C FL Saturday Night.



Here's the energy here.
ty for posting that, looks like we here in florida will get something sat nite for sure if that holds true
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33469
599. MahFL
2:52 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Yal tell me somthing....

If you are outside away from your home, and you spot a tornado, which do you do?

A) Call 911 and report the tornado to weather service
B) Call/text family friends and get to safe shelter


Only call 911 if you can see someone is about to die, if it's an EF0, that's not likely. Report it to the nearest NWS office. Then call you family if they are in the path of the tornado. If they are not, leave the bandwidth open for people in real danger.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
598. LargoFl
2:50 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
I live just south of there. The folks around here are concerned and are getting prepared. I am also ready because I was in storm mode for the last event. I love this blog, and it has helped me tremendously with past storms. This will change drastically, but there is no question about the high helicity values that will be present today.
great news that your prepared, so many ignore the warnings, good luck to you
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33469
597. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(
I live just south of there. The folks around here are concerned and are getting prepared. I am also ready because I was in storm mode for the last event. I love this blog, and it has helped me tremendously with past storms. This will change drastically, but there is no question about the high helicity values that will be present today.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
596. zawxdsk
2:38 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(


This is definitely not chase country at all. The only thing you can do is pick a tall, clear hill that you know you can get down from if needed and watch from there.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
595. dabirds
2:38 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
A good amount of pea/small marble hail from cell that went through Montgomery County, IL around 7, heard to south and east they had golf ball. Moved out fast, should be just south of ILwthr by now, if not to border. Everybody to our south and east, stay safe, looks to be rough one!
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
594. TheOnlyBravesFan
2:37 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Yal tell me somthing....

If you are outside away from your home, and you spot a tornado, which do you do?

A) Call 911 and report the tornado to weather service
B) Call/text family friends and get to safe shelter


BOTH!!! Seriously, I'd let my WFO know first.

I'm "excited" but saddened for these approaching storms. Prayers for all potentially affected.
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
593. zawxdsk
2:35 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Based on my storm experience, it looks like the big stuff today will quickly go linear after a few strong cells early in the afternoon.

The elevated storms this morning make me think that there is quite the instability out there.

Nice Little Rock Sounding this morning, too...
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
592. Minnemike
2:34 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The people that were hit by EF-1 and 2 tornadoes 2 days ago are just inside the high risk area. I would bet there is some anxiety flowing
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
591. hydrus
2:34 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
590. GeorgiaStormz
2:34 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


they do within 50 miles i beleive.

so really, a TORCON of 9 is a 45% chance with SPC


No a 50 mile radius is 4 times as large as a 25 mile radius so it is a 90/4= 22.5% etc and so on with the probabilites
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
589. ncstorm
2:34 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
I dont know why anyone would wish to go through a tornado. I have been in one and trust me, there is nothing "exciting" about experiencing one. It was one of the most horrifying experiences I ever went through. I have family in Tennessee so I am watching just if I live there. Everyone please stay safe today and tomorrow.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.