Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Eleven deaths in tornado outbreak; new tornado outbreak likely Friday
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2012 +34
The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.


Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday's tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Yesterday's tornado outbreak's place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak--part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 - 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 - 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday's Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twister that struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.


Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950--an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.

Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.


Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.

New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday's tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!



Jeff Masters
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Categories: Tornado Winter Weather
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451. flowcool0 4:24 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting MrstormX:
I have a very bad gut feeling about tomorrow, I mean really bad. I have been following this all day with you guys, and as each hour passes I don't see any reason to think this is going to be weak tomorrow. Especially when you look at statements from WFO Nashville, and the wording being used by other NWS offices and the SPC.

What makes this even worse is that people are not in "tornado mode" yet, it isn't even spring yet. Those who pay attention to this thing are going to be those who were affected last year, they know the pain of losing your house, your pet, your friends and family....those are the people who will be ready. I hope others are ready as well but I have doubts, just my ignorant roommates comments alone earlier today are testament to this. Tomorrow might be a very unsettling day.


Sadly the national media coverage of this will emphasize death and destruction instead of prevention and awareness.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:27 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Lol...You sound so solemn...i am Cane, I seek water..:)..i hope you catch that
yes
Quoting hydrus:
Lol...You sound so solemn...i am Cane, I seek water..:)..i hope you catch that


yes i do


latest 3z RUC RUN for 2 pm tomorrow afternoon
850 MB layer

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
453. AllyBama 4:28 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting TampaSpin:
The amount of Sunshine in areas before the front will be a MAJOR factor with LIFT and Instability tomorrow...the more sun and heating of the day the more the air rises and then BOOM BANG!


today started out overcast and gloomy (again!)...then it got really muggy but no rain..finally the clouds cleared out and it was picture perfect this afternoon..temps rose to the low 80's...good - but not good..
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454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:31 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
RUC depiction for 9 pm friday night 850 MB layer

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
455. hydrus 4:34 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
In the last update the met said that the atmosphere was "reloading". A sinister sound to the forecast I thought.
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456. KoritheMan 4:35 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
In retrospect, last year's menacing severe weather season could have been so much worse had the winter of 2010-2011 not been exceptionally cold. This year, La Nina finally behaved as it's supposed to, giving way to synoptic scale ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern United States. The southerly flow on the west side of the high amplitude ridge injected a flow of warm moist air into the Gulf, keeping water temperatures warm. The last two winters, we've had the complete opposite, with frequent bouts of northwesterly surface flow out over the Gulf, a situation quite favorable for upwelling.

I guess we should be thankful we experienced such a winter. Else, the death toll could have been much higher last year.
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457. floridaT 4:35 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
evening all
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458. WxGeekVA 4:37 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Anyone have any maps they can post comparing current GOM SSTs and the SSTs on April 27th of last year? I am on my phone because my computer is broken (again) so I can't look up certain maps because the page doesn't load right.

TYIA!

Oh and night all, I'll check back I the morning.
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459. hydrus 4:39 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting flowcool0:


Sadly the national media coverage of this will emphasize death and destruction instead of prevention and awareness.
They do like those stratospheric ratings..Ratings = dollars.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314
460. TampaSpin 4:53 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
I am at home all day tomorrow....i will be posting Tornadao Warning as quickly as i can tomorrow....with the GR2Analyst program...as usually i can post a threat about 10 minutes before the NWS post a Warning...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
461. sunlinepr 4:53 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447
462. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:56 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone have any maps they can post comparing current GOM SSTs and the SSTs on April 27th of last year? I am on my phone because my computer is broken (again) so I can't look up certain maps because the page doesn't load right.

TYIA!

Oh and night all, I'll check back I the morning.







off by one day on the 2012 image no update to todays chart
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
463. sunlinepr 4:57 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
PDF from study by ACP Link

Link

Study: First time in history xenon-133 detected in Southern Hemisphere Cs-137 also measured Darwin station, Australia

Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition


Source: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313 2343, 2012 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/2313/2012/ doi:10.5194/acp-12-2313-2012

Authors: A. Stohl1, P. Seibert2, G. Wotawa3, D. Arnold2,4, J. F. Burkhart1, S. Eckhardt1, C. Tapia5, A. Vargas4, and T. J. Yasunari6
1 NILU Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
2 Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
3 Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria
4 Institute of Energy Technologies (INTE), Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
5 Department of Physics and Nucelar Engineering (FEN),Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
6 Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology and Research, Columbia, MD 21044, USA
Date: Received: 8 October 2011 Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 20 October 2011
Revised: 1 February 2012 Accepted: 23 February 2012 Published: 1 March 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447
464. Jedkins01 5:00 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol Not jealous true talk


I was just messing with you :)
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465. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:04 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
off by one day on the 2012 image no update to todays chart
i don't see the connection
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
466. AussieStorm 5:04 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
467. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:06 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
the pending event is more atomspheric dynamics with maybe a small role from gulf sst's which are slighly warmer than this time last year
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:10 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:
hello aussie how goes the battle with the rain down there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651
469. Jedkins01 5:14 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:
In retrospect, last year's menacing severe weather season could have been so much worse had the winter of 2010-2011 not been exceptionally cold. This year, La Nina finally behaved as it's supposed to, giving way to synoptic scale ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern United States. The southerly flow on the west side of the high amplitude ridge injected a flow of warm moist air into the Gulf, keeping water temperatures warm. The last two winters, we've had the complete opposite, with frequent bouts of northwesterly surface flow out over the Gulf, a situation quite favorable for upwelling.

I guess we should be thankful we experienced such a winter. Else, the death toll could have been much higher last year.



Good point, I think sometimes though, we are so surprised by the death toll not being as high as we would expect when you consider that extreme destruction that occurred. However, if you were to actually add up the the population of people hit by the tornadoes themselves we are talking a much lower number then the thousands of people. We are talking relatively narrow paths in streaks. If such extreme destruction covered an entire city we would see many thousands killed. That being said, If you're in the path of a strong tornado, chances of survival probably are quite a bit lower than they may deceivingly appear to be. Furthermore there is also the human will to survive, contrary to popular belief nuclear weapons will not kill everyone in their path, more people would probably survive than you would think. I also believe we aren't going to die unless we are meant to, in that some survive incredible odds by surviving things that could have killed them 100 times over, and others succumb to death in ways that seem so strange and less likely. However, that is more of study of the unknown mysteries of life, or maybe spiritual if you want to call it that, so we really can't factor that into survival scientifically.
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470. StormTracker2K 5:26 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Not only will we have a big severe wx event tomorrow but we could get a resurgence again Saturday night across C & N FL as the models are not looking good for us down here with a very strong piece of energy diving in.
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471. StormTracker2K 5:30 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Strong jet combined with very strong vorticity Saturday night combined low 90's during the day & 70 dew points are a bad combination.
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472. StormTracker2K 5:37 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Tornado Alley could get hit hard this time next week.
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473. sunlinepr 5:56 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Chinese Drones Will Use Genetic Algorithms to Learn to Hunt For Submarines

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2012-02/ new-chinese-sub-hunting-scheme-calls-ship-launched -drones-and-genetic-algorithms
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447
474. cyclonerichard 6:53 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
lots of storminess in the southern Indian ocean
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475. jamesrainier 8:40 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 315 AM CST.

* AT 232 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSCOE...OR 7 MILES EAST
OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ICONIUM...LOWRY CITY...MONEGAW
SPRINGS...OSCEOLA...ROSCOE AND VISTA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TRUMAN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
476. jamesrainier 8:48 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
click for larger map http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/wtvf/NC5wx/radar/i mages/3d/radar_3d_sm.jpg

This image updates when you F5. It's been growing yellow columns.


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477. jamesrainier 9:04 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
478. jamesrainier 9:06 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 AM CST.

* AT 258 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR QUINCY...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HERMITAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CLIMAX SPRINGS...CROSS TIMBERS...
EDMONSON...EDWARDS...FRISTOE...HASTAIN...KNOBBY... LAKEVIEW
HEIGHTS...QUINCY...WHITAKERVILLE AND ZORA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND TRUMAN
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
479. jamesrainier 9:15 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am at home all day tomorrow....i will be posting Tornadao Warning as quickly as i can tomorrow....with the GR2Analyst program...as usually i can post a threat about 10 minutes before the NWS post a Warning...


That's great. I won't be able to post Tornado Warnings like I did the other day, at least not while I'm at home.
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480. jamesrainier 9:24 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
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481. jamesrainier 9:28 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
HART COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 400 AM CST

* AT 319 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SEGAL
TO OAKLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
MUNFORDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...
MOUTARDIER AND BROADWAY...
CONOLOWAY AND JOHNSON CROSSROADS...
SNAP AND ROCK CREEK...
HORNTOWN AND FRAGRANT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND
71.
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482. GeorgiaStormz 9:36 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:


getting closer to GA!?
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483. AussieStorm 10:18 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Big hail core SW of Jefferson City MO.


3.5" hail. 72.5dbz
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
484. AussieStorm 10:25 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello aussie how goes the battle with the rain down there

The main Sydney dam that was almost bone dry back in early 2010 is not at 100% and water is flowing down the spillway. I have had 2" over the last 3 days but My part of Sydney has had 12" more rain, than this time last year.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
485. TheOnlyBravesFan 10:53 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
This is Georgia's setup for severe weather, seems the strongest storms stay NW of Atlanta. However , based on the last SPC update, I'd say this map needs updating, as where I live (north of Atlanta) about 5-10 miles from the moderate risk, so I expect to be added to it. High risk seems likely in the Ohio Valley.

Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 186
486. AussieStorm 10:56 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    

3.75" hail, 75dbz

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

MOZ061-063-064-021245-
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
452 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

AT 445 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
PAIR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AT 60 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN
530 AM AND 630 AM.

NOW IS THE TIME TO MOVE YOUR VEHICLE INDOORS. ONCE A WARNING IS
ISSUED...TAKE SHELTER INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTENSIVE PROPERTY DAMAGE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA THIS MORNING.

$$

CVKING
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
487. AussieStorm 11:03 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
TVS west of New Melle MO

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
488. LargoFl 11:10 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
507 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-022100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
507 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
TODAY. VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FOG SO EARLY MORNING RUSH HOUR MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...SLOW DOWN...AND USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING FOG. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS
IF ENCOUNTERING ANY FOG.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DRY AIR LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
489. trunkmonkey 11:10 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
The NWS has toned down it's forecast for the Ohio Valley, which is a good thing!

Here is the forecast.

000
FXUS63 KLMK 020831
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...
Updated at 330 AM EST Mar 2 2012

...Severe Weather Outbreak Likely in the Ohio Valley This
Afternoon and Evening...

Parameters continue to come together for significant severe weather
late this afternoon into this evening, but still some uncertainty
regarding the exact location and threat level. Low pressure
continues to deepen over Oklahoma, with broad southerly low-level
flow ahead of it. Low-level jet has been slow to develop, and the
surface warm front is just north of the Tennessee/Alabama border as
of 07Z. There has been a smattering of precip along the warm front,
and recently some development along the KY/TN line, but dewpoints
there are still just clawing their way up to around 40F.

As the low-level jet strengthens, it will help the warm front blast
northward past the Ohio River later this morning, and the isentropic
lift will lead to rapid precip development over Kentucky. Elevated
instability will make it convective, and could yet support large
hail this morning.

Greater severe threat is in the afternoon, as the environment
destabilizes. Have gone with the warmer GFS MOS guidance due to
strong low-level warm advection with sfc winds near or above 20 kt.
Modifying forecast soundings for max temps in the lower/mid 70s, and
fairly conservative dewpoints in the mid 50s, yields 1000-2000 J/kg
of CAPE. Environment will also be strongly sheared, with 0-3km SR
helicity over 300 m2/s2 along the Ohio River, and over 400 in
south-central Kentucky. Deep moisture is somewhat limited, but that
will just help support discrete cells. As a result, anything that
develops will quickly go severe. Significant tornadoes are possible
with this activity. Given the SW-NE orientation of the low-level
jet and the northward penetration of the warm front, the greatest
threat will likely be east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass
Parkway.

Gradient winds this afternoon will be quite strong, exceeding 20 mph
for several hours. Gusts will generally be 30-35 mph, but there is a
brief window just ahead of the cold front where gusts could reach 40
mph. Given the short time span, and the severe weather threat that
will be coincident, have opted not to issue a wind advisory at this
time.

There is also the potential for a squall line to develop along the
cold front, which will move through the area late this afternoon and
early this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but
there will also be the lingering QLCS tornado threat, mainly
associated with bowing segments and line breaks, as well as the
possible embedded supercell.

From late evening onward storms should come to an end, with much
cooler air filtering in. Overnight lows will dip into the mid/upper
30s.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
490. AussieStorm 11:26 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    


This is the noon 0-1 km EHI forecast. Basically the greatest tornado threat is from the MS River eastward including western KY/TN and extreme southern IL, spreading eastward into central portions of the state by 2-3 pm cst.

From: Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359
491. TheOnlyBravesFan 11:28 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
000
FLUS42 KFFC 021000
HWOFFC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
500 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY
AND TO CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE TONIGHT AFFECTING NORTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN THE REST OF NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THE
REST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1500 TO 2500 AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
STATE. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL GREATLY AID THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE NIGHT BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH AS THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 600 PM. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD MAKE ANY NEEDED PREPARATIONS TODAY.

$$
BDL
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 186
492. CybrTeddy 11:29 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
TOR:CON is up to 8/10 for KY central & TN north-central. Stay safe out there. Could be a 9/10 soon judging by the conditions coming into place today. Dangerous and rare March outbreak looming.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278
493. Dragod66 11:32 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
hope this isnt a bad friday for you guys in the states ... stay safe!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
494. MAweatherboy1 11:44 AM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TOR:CON is up to 8/10 for KY central & TN north-central. Stay safe out there. Could be a 9/10 soon judging by the conditions coming into place today. Dangerous and rare March outbreak looming.

Good morning... I really wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 10/10. Tornadoes are pretty much a guarentee today, we just have to hope they hit more rural areas.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6378
495. JNCali 12:12 PM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Here We Go! first cell overhead just woke us up.. I was hoping to sleep in today since it's gonna be a long one.. no hail, heavy rain for about a minute with gusts to 30mph.. put the coffee on! just got the twc text alert about the severe t-storm watch for our area.
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
496. hurricanehunter27 12:19 PM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am at home all day tomorrow....i will be posting Tornadao Warning as quickly as i can tomorrow....with the GR2Analyst program...as usually i can post a threat about 10 minutes before the NWS post a Warning...
We were on it on Wensday. I have to admit there is a thrill with trying to beat the NWS. Hope everyone stays safe! See you at 3:45.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473
497. percylives 12:20 PM GMT on March 02, 2012    
Going to stick my neck out a bit as the center of the low pressure system generating all the weather appears to be heading NNE at this time, 0720 EST, into southern Canada. Though it is a strong system it just may be too far from the GOM to suck enough moisture north to generate a large outbreak of severe weather. This is no "Stand Down" notice but perhaps we can all relax a bit.

Trying to learn of these things.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
500. Thundercloud01221991 12:39 PM GMT on March 02, 2012    
I am thinking high risk with 60% wind and 30% tornado from northern KY down to Northern MS/AL
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3672
501. bohonkweatherman 12:40 PM GMT on March 02, 2012    
You don't see 8 out of 10 chance very often for a tornado, be safe out there for those in these areas. Nice and warm here in Texas, only drizzle around here past 2 weeks.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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