March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?
The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:
262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999
Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.
Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.
The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.
If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.
Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.
Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:
"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.
The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.
Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.
We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."
An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A cold PDO typically favors a southward current of cold water from the west coast to dive southward. Theoretically, this will inhibit rapid warming of the equatorial Pacific. We will eventually get there, but it's not going to be as quick as some are saying.
I don't like your reference there...I'm not crazy.
Actually, Koritheman is correct.
The thing is, the SAL with the dry air is lowering SST's - which will have a harder time to recover than the dry air itself. I think the setup is even less CV storms, but more Irene situations where those waves, choked by SAL, hit a sweet spot at ~50W and blow up into major systems and fail to have sufficient time to recurve without hitting a major landmass, say the United States.
Yeah that dang country of Africa... :p
no no no it not the crazy that I am refering to you about its just the randomness that makes it kinda crazy but no not that you are get it
While SAL may be holding Sea Surface Temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic down just a little bit, the strong trade winds across the region is what is really preventing warming to occur. Just another sign that La Nina is fading...
I know the wording is a bit distasteful. Also last I speak of it.
Don't go. The predominant sausage fest on here generally leads to a lot of testosterone. We need a little female company to balance it out.
wow me sayin that make me think of church or tucker sayin this
yeah I guess
by the way I was talking about seeing TW not CV storm early if this is what all of you are refering to
btw before u go whose u'r fav RvsB person
How do you know who is female and who is male?
Let's recap tonight's topics:
politics [why!]
the SAHEL and SAL [check]
bass / the sound
bass / the fish
cognitive dissonance
Obviously we have no serious wx anything to report...
I'm not saying he is way off, it could potentially be a sign of the upcoming season. All I said was that its too early to be sure on that though.
umm... its gonna be 80 here thursday. thats exciting
The positive NAO combined with the sal is what has really caused the MDR to be average to below that.
Indeed, lol. How about we just go ahead and throw the rest of the world into that equation while we are at it though :)
84 where I am tomorrow in cfl
I don't know if everyone is, but most of them are.
Sausage fest, exactly what are you implying by that? lol
I think you know, Jed. I think you know. ;)
Which?????
I voted for Ron Paul, sadly I can't say the same for much of the rest of the Republican voters...
I'm very disappointed in the deep south. Common rural voters, I thought you stood for good American values... Oh well, what can a man do but watch and hope for better.
Baha
Myself
Pat
SPL
TropicalAnalyst
Shen
Jed
VAbeachhurricanes
wunderkid
Cybr
Tom
I could go on.
I love sausage... like the actual food...
How do you know I'm not a girl?
Ahh I do, I guess I was just attempting to confirm my suspicions... lol
go onnnnnnnn /in my best Jon Stewart voice
Cause you aren't? Your syntax is not girly.
I like the food too, but me thinks we better drop this subject before it uh, well, you know. lol
Because Cody is a male given name.
Funny thing is that 99% of the blog was under the impression I was a female up until mid-2009.
Also correct. The trade winds will also tend to rip apart these systems once we head into the heart of hurricane season. That's mostly why I lowered my numbers to around 13 towards the beginning of the year, I'm expecting an inactive Cape Verde year.
Haven't seen a Levi update recently, he can read the clues more carefully than I ever could.
Don't forget meeeee!!!!!
Tonights Daily Show was awesome! Will Ferrel is HILARIOUS!!
Yes,we need Levi to start his tidbits for the 2012 season.
o_O
Is that something you should be proud of?
That was exactly my facial reaction when on my birthday people where posting on the blogs 'Cheers to the Birthday Girl CybrTeddy'. I always thought it was obvious I was a male, guess I was wrong.
you know it is a good question how do you really know who is what for all you really know you could very well be talking to a computer or a pet or a female or male
As I recall, your Mom used that handle during Wilma. Maybe some of the mistake is leftover from that.
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