Hard freeze likely to significantly damage Midwest fruit trees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on March 26, 2012

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After a week of temperatures in the 70s and 80s last week, it was a rude awakening for Michigan this morning, as temperatures across all but the extreme southern portions of the state dropped below freezing. Tonight, far colder temperatures in the low to mid-20s are expected across the entire state, and frosts and freezes are also expected in all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Maryland, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. A hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Temperatures as hot as 90° hit Michigan last week, and the National Weather Service in Detroit called the "Summer in March" heat wave "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago."


Figure 1. Frost and freeze advisories (white colors) are posted today for all of Lower Michigan and all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. Although freezing temperatures in the extreme Northeast are also expected, the growing season there has not yet begun, since last week's heat was not long-enough lived in that part of the country. Image taken from wunderground's severe weather map.

Fruit trees at risk
Tonight's hard freeze poses a significant danger to the region's fruit industry, and growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries are gearing up to battle the freezing temperatures by operating large fans and propane heaters in orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. The situation this week is similar to what occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops. In an interview with citizensvoice.com, Ian Merwin, Ph.D., a horticulturist who specializes in tree fruit at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., said, "I'm pretty sure this will be the earliest bloom, going back at least to the early 1900s. We are definitely in a very risky situation right now for the fruit crop in the whole Northeast."

Jeff Masters

Cherry Blossoms (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington, DC.
Cherry Blossoms
Pretty In Pink (THudgins)
A little hazy today, but still a good day to take in some views of the Apple Blossoms along route 45.
Pretty In Pink

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Quoting RitaEvac:



As for drought and summer heat....

Easy, think about plant nurseries, they have the black netted tarps over the plants mounted by poles, like a deck. Sun still comes thru but not as intense and rain still falls thru. Knocks out the suns heat tremendously, put it over the crop, in fact I don't know why farmers don't do it this way
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***large majority are going to be exterminated***

They may from hunger, when petroleum based fertizer is no longer available. Or from warfare, when the last few drops of oil become so precious we turn upon ourselves for our own share, only to burn it and curse its scarcity. Or perhaps die from lack of medical care, when plastic syringes and IV lines are no longer available because we believed oil would last forever. This is the fate of the world we love and inhabit, if we can't find a way through the next few decades, but we will die at our own hands.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I feel like it's me against the blog :P
How does it not become irreversible: We become more energy efficient, use more solar/wind power, less fossil fuels. We use energy efficient lighting. We make better electric cars. Etc, etc, etc. It's not going to happen overnight. But it can happen. And it can stop global warming.


I feel your pain!

I understand that we are coming out with newer technologies now. Actually, these technologies have been around for quite some time. We have improved upon them and are continuing to do so today. But, this is only putting out the match. How far down the chain have the events progressed when we put out the match? ( the reality of the situation is that, at the present, the match is still burning and growing hotter. )

The permafrost is an excellent example to use here. Think of the permafrost as the forest. The permafrost is showing strong indications that it is losing its ability to contain the methane and CO2 that is trapped there. Once this trapped methane and CO2 begins to enter the atmosphere, in sufficient quantities, we have lost the ability to control future events from there. Even by our putting out our match ( completely stop the releasing of CO2 into the atmosphere), the forest will continue to burn (the permafrost will continue to release its trapped methane and CO2). The process would not need any additional release of CO2, by us, to continue the process beyond the CO2 we have released. We have no known way to stop the permafrost from releasing its methane and CO2, once it has begun to do so. The process will continue without us and without regards to anything else we could do.

Striking the match was a tipping point. You can never unstrike that match again. You have introduced a potential, but, by putting out the match you have ended the potential of crossing to the next tipping point. The next tipping point is when the paper catches on fire and this creates another potential. Should you put the paper out and assure that the match is still not burning then you have stopped the process from reaching the next tipping point. You can continue this until the potential for the fire to spread beyond the forest fire has been eliminated. The only way to do this is to put out the forest fire before it could trigger the next tipping point. Each link in the chain that the chain events have surpassed has become more difficult to control from there. You will reach the point that you will no longer be able to break the chain of events.

Each fire becomes hotter than the fire that created it and the added heat brings new materials closer to their flashpoint. Once their flashpoint has been reached they will burst into flames and create even more heat that brings other materials closer to their flashpoints. Any fire fighter knows that once a fire reaches a certain intensity the only thing you can do is to protect the exposures and to let the fire burn itself out. The fire is out of control and is irreversible. The fire will continue until it can no longer sustain itself. Then, and only then, are the firefighters able to step back in to finally bring the fire under control and to extinguish it. With the climate, we are talking about one huge fire with a huge amount of materials to burn.

Please. Tell me you understand now. I am running out of analogies to use.

BTW, the article never said we have reached the final tipping before it all becomes irreversible. The article did strongly suggest that this time is soon approaching.
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The GFS continues to show a big outbreak Sunday and on...some of the hodographs it has been putting out are getting just plain ridiculous.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks similar to what was reported on by the Weather Channel recently. I think they are doing some kind of GIS density analysis of all tornadoes. If similar to what was reported on by TWC, it has no weighting of tornado width, length, or intensity, which kinda makes me wonder if it really is all that great at providing accurate "tornado risk" information to insurers and other interested parties.

Florida might be near the top for number of tornadoes, but tornado intensity averages fairly low for such states. I think a better metric would be a comparison between a GIS analysis of tornado density and a GIS analysis of average tornado intensity, maybe:
Count x Intensity
Maybe long-track tornadoes could also be put onto a point-based-grid such that there are multiple "points" for the tornado tracks if they are not just brief touchdowns. This might help take into account the fact that more people "experience" a tornado when it is long-track versus brief.



I agree on the count X intensity idea for the same reason, but I don't think that should be the only figure being shown. There should be 1 graph for the number of tornadoes, like the one already posted, and then a separate graph for count X intensity. Because you shouldn't discredit number of tornadoes just as you wouldn't want people thinking Florida is "tornado alley" either because it gets a high count of them.


The reason why numbers is still important is that considering I have been a resident in Central Florida for more than 16 years now I have witnessed 3 actual tornadoes with own eyes within this area and even though all 3 were fairly weak they still wreak havoc. I have only witness hail twice, which is kinda funny. Anyways, I remember watching Bay News 9 last year when a tornado which started as a waterspout came onshore as a 110 mph F1 tornado and took the top floor of a beach house and did a path of damage across the county quite close to me. There were people staying in that beach house that were terrified because they said they never thought Florida got tornadoes because its "paradise" and they didn't take the warning serious at all as a result. Thankfully the waterspout as it came on shore created a loud enough roar that sent them headed for a safe spot in the lower floor shortly before the tornado swept the top floor off the house.



If you get what I'm saying here, granted it was an F1 but it still did significant damage enough to potentially be deadly, 2 people were injured from the tornado but not serious from what I remember, I believe they were 2 different people that had their cars thrown around. That being said people coming to Florida or living here should be conscious of the frequency of tornadoes here.
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What has the SUN been doing this nearly complete MONTH....It's been very active has it not? The recent Global Warmth HAS BEEN THE SUN!
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Quoting LargoFl:
I read this and all i see is increased homeowners issurance premiums even though, ive lived here for almost 30 years and never once saw a tornado
I believe you live in Pinellas County, right? (Correct me if I'm wrong.) The Tornado History Project lists 122 tornadoes in that county between 1950 and 2010, mostly weak ones as you've noted, though on occasion with something stronger:

twister
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yes actually :)
However I'm sure they do more than that especially since it's tough to cover a whole field.


As for drought and summer heat....

Easy, think about plant nurseries, they have the black netted tarps over the plants mounted by poles, like a deck. Knocks out the suns heat tremendously, put it over the crop, in fact I don't know why farmers don't do it this way
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

No shortage of warmth in the Gulf. If it ends up being a low shear, relatively moist environment there this year we could have some serious problems.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

No shortage of warmth in the Gulf. If it ends up being a low shear, relatively moist environment there this year we could have some serious problems.

Let's hope that's not the case
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the task before us is large and complex we must first strive to eliminate our differences in order to strive in our future it is only by workin together will we achieve our desired outcome as one united together as the human race


That's why a final war is upon us, and a large majority are going to be exterminated
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Remember though, although Central Florida is a tornado hotspot, most of them are fairly weak. This is because during the wet season very strong thunderstorms are common on a daily basis and although the atmosphere usually does not contain the necessary dynamics for tornadoes, sometimes sea breeze collisions interacting with powerful thunderstorm cells can create localized shear thus weak rotation, and tornadoes can form as a result. Most of them are weak, but every once in a while a couple of stronger tornadoes do develop surprisingly in such conditions.

Furthermore because it is sub-tropical here we can get tornadoes year round, during the dry season, even though its the dry season it still does rain from frontal systems, we can sometimes get tornadoes this way during the Winter into Spring. Ironically Florida's dry season can be more wet then some might think. There are years like this year where it is very dry and quiet rain wise, but others years like ones with El Nino dominant can mean torrential rain and frequent severe weather because strong frontal systems with all the best lift and dynamics combine with deep tropical m moisture from the Caribbean. I love El Nino because we get exciting weather the whole year and really no dry season.


La Nina is the opposite generally, meaning a much drier than normal dry season, and often a shorter than normal wet season. La Nina is very harsh on Florida's ecosystem.
I read this and all i see is increased homeowners issurance premiums even though, ive lived here for almost 30 years and never once saw a tornado
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Quoting txjac:



Just curious ...how can growers prepare? Is there something that they can do to prevent crop loss? Is it something as easy as covering them as we do when it threatens to freeze?
Wraps; smudge pots; fans; space heaters, etc. A rise of even a couple of degrees at and just above ground level can mean the difference between failure and just another cold night. That being said, such measures are time-consuming, expensive, and not always practical, so as with so many other things, larger, factory-type growers have greater resources on which to draw, so they'll likely fare better than local growers.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nebraska hottest place in the US today. Crazy!!


Quite bit of Red
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
193. wxmod
Quoting goosegirl1:


I try to focus on what I can influence, but I also feel that in order to bring a wold-wide change, every human has to be involved. I have always worried about the fate of the world, even as a kid who cried with the Indian on the TV commercial. (Now you really know how old I am!)

But you are correct- if everyone in LA rode their bike to work today, think of the effect that would have. Even better, they all ride their bike to work one day every week, and not just in LA but across the US. Grass roots thinking like this will go a long way to helping... but is it enough? I fear not.


Grass roots thinking is great, but who can ride a bike in the new China without dying from asphyxiation. Quit buying gas hogs. Don't trade in gas hogs or they will get resold in third world countries. Quit buying the latest thing. Quit shopping for the cheapest prices and shop socially responsible. Most important: !!!take control of your retirement account so an investment firm isn't "investing" it in China!!!
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Quoting hurricane23:


It would be much more realistic to view those two years as being a once in a lifetime occurrence than to view those years as "normal." 1933, 2005, ????? (2077?). It doesn't get any better.



I didn't say they were normal. It is rare to get such a perfect pattern for U.S. landfalls.

However, that does not undermine my base argument, because if one looks at the overall steering pattern during years where the U.S. has a significant number of hurricane landfalls, one will find a clear pattern associated with lots of storms impacting the United States.

Here are the Aug-Oct mean 500mb heights for all seasons since 1950 with 3 or more U.S. hurricane landfalls. One can see a clear pattern of ridging over the northern U.S. being associated with a greater number of landfalls than normal, which is exactly what we saw in 2004-2005, and exactly what we would expect meteorologically.

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Quoting nigel20:
March 26, 2012 SST Anomal

No shortage of warmth in the Gulf. If it ends up being a low shear, relatively moist environment there this year we could have some serious problems.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Plenty of factors pointing to a less active tropical season across the atl. Of course that says next to nothing about landfalling storms.


Among them are four important ones:

African Drought.

Less than average MDR waters.

Good chance of having El Nino. (Although not certain how strong if it comes)

Higher Pressures in most of Atlantic Basin.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yes but it's proven smoking, obesity, etc. kills people. We can't prove global warming irreversible.


Ironically enough, some the same people who tend to be unreasonably skeptical of climate change were some of the same people unreasonably skeptical of the side effects of smoking and poor nutrition.
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March 26, 2012 SST Anomaly
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting txjac:



Just curious ...how can growers prepare? Is there something that they can do to prevent crop loss? Is it something as easy as covering them as we do when it threatens to freeze?

Yes actually :)
However I'm sure they do more than that especially since it's tough to cover a whole field.
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Brrrrr! in the NE.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
After setting a record for its hottest March day ever just yesterday, Scotland set a new all-time national March high temperature record again today when it reached 22.9C (73.2F) at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire. In addition, there were dozens and dozens of high temperature records set all across the UK and parts of Western Europe today. Closer to home, dozens of high temperature records re being set or broken throughout the Great Plains, with readings in the 70s and 80s common as far north as Nebraska and South Dakota.

FWIW, there's a chance at some record lows throughout the Northeast and the Great Lakes region tonight; I can only hope that growers are prepared.


Nebraska hottest place in the US today. Crazy!!


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183. txjac
Quoting Neapolitan:
After setting a record for its hottest March day ever just yesterday, Scotland set a new all-time national March high temperature record again today when it reached 22.9C (73.2F) at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire. In addition, there were dozens and dozens of high temperature records set all across the UK and parts of Western Europe today. Closer to home, dozens of high temperature records re being set or broken throughout the Great Plains, with readings in the 70s and 80s common as far north as Nebraska and South Dakota.

FWIW, there's a chance at some record lows throughout the Northeast and the Great Lakes region tonight; I can only hope that growers are prepared.



Just curious ...how can growers prepare? Is there something that they can do to prevent crop loss? Is it something as easy as covering them as we do when it threatens to freeze?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's been a while since the CPC's given us this much blue... Just when I thought I could put the winter coat away



Notice the heat builds out west while cooling takes place in the east. This is the exact opposite of what we have seen for many weeks now.
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After setting a record for its hottest March day ever just yesterday, Scotland set a new all-time national March high temperature record again today when it reached 22.9C (73.2F) at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire. In addition, there were dozens and dozens of daily high temperature records set all across the UK and parts of Western Europe today.

Closer to home, dozens of daily high temperature records are also being set or broken throughout the Great Plains, with readings in the 70s and 80s common as far north as Nebraska and South Dakota.

There's a chance at some record lows throughout the Northeast and the Great Lakes region tonight; I can only hope that growers are prepared.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
if we are to save the earth
it has to be done together
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicTraveler:
There's something in Steven Covey's work about two circles - one inside the other, with the inside one being much smaller than the outside. He calls the inside our circle of influence and the outside our circle of concern. He suggests that if we focus on what we can influence we avoid driving ourselves batty over stuff we can't influence (like world hunger, global warming, etc.) So we pay a lot of attention and put our emotional energy into things we can influence, like limiting our driving, recycling (my examples). I do what I can, where I can (including expressing my views), but I realize what I can't do as well. I too hate to think about irreversible change, so I keep on doing what I can.


I try to focus on what I can influence, but I also feel that in order to bring a wold-wide change, every human has to be involved. I have always worried about the fate of the world, even as a kid who cried with the Indian on the TV commercial. (Now you really know how old I am!)

But you are correct- if everyone in LA rode their bike to work today, think of the effect that would have. Even better, they all ride their bike to work one day every week, and not just in LA but across the US. Grass roots thinking like this will go a long way to helping... but is it enough? I fear not.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


The New Frontier of which I speak is not a set of promises — it is a set of challenges. It sums up not what I intend to offer the American people, but what I intend to ask of them.

the task before us is large and complex we must first strive to eliminate our differences in order to strive in our future it is only by workin together will we achieve our desired outcome as one united together as the human race
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
Plenty of factors pointing to a less active tropical season across the atl. Of course that says next to nothing about landfalling storms.
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can you imagine something like andrew blowing through dade county we were lucky in 92 he went wsw
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Quoting hurricane23:


It would be much more realistic to view those two years as being a once in a lifetime occurrence than to view those years as "normal." 1933, 2005, ????? (2077?). It doesn't get any better.

one of the worst if 50 miles north would of been 92 all luck
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Quoting txjac:


Wish that I could plus you more than once!


Thank you!
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It's been a while since the CPC's given us this much blue... Just when I thought I could put the winter coat away

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171. wxmod
Summary of solar panel prices. Now less than a dollar a watt.

Link

BEWARE OF SHIPPING COSTS
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Quoting Levi32:


Though the probability of storms impacting the U.S. is also a function of the mean circulation pattern during the hurricane season. For example, in 2004 and 2005 the mean 500mb steering pattern over the August-October period favored landfall tracks more than out-to-sea tracks due to ridging over southeast Canada.

Specific tracks are based a lot in "luck," but the seasonal probability of where storms will tend to go is something that can be forecasted to some extent based on the overall summer pattern.





Didnt know that. thanks
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Quoting Levi32:


Though the probability of storms impacting the U.S. is also a function of the mean circulation pattern during the hurricane season. For example, in 2004 and 2005 the mean 500mb steering pattern over the August-October period favored landfall tracks more than out-to-sea tracks due to ridging over southeast Canada.

Specific tracks are based a lot in "luck," but the seasonal probability of where storms will tend to go is something that can be forecasted to some extent based on the overall summer pattern.





It would be much more realistic to view those two years as being a once in a lifetime occurrence than to view those years as "normal." 1933, 2005, ????? (2077?). It doesn't get any better.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
New CoreLogic Report Shows Tornado and Hail Risk Extends Far Beyond Great Plains States


CoreLogic announced the release of its Tornado and Hail Risk Beyond Tornado Alley report. The new research findings from CoreLogic, based on historical weather patterns, reveal that severe weather risk extends far outside the narrow eight-state corridor in the U.S. Midwest, commonly known as %u201CTornado Alley,%u201D traditionally considered to be the area in which tornado and severe hail risk is highly concentrated.






The Tornado and Hail Risk Beyond Tornado Alley report analyzes hazard risk at the state-level across the U.S using the new CoreLogic wind and hail data layers. Key findings include:

Tornado risk actually extends across most of the eastern half of the U.S. rather than being confined to the Midwest.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), of the top ten states with the highest number of tornado touchdowns between 1980 and 2009, only three actually fell within Tornado Alley.
At least 26 states have some area facing extreme tornado risk.
At least 11 states have significant areas facing extreme hail risk, and almost every state east of the Rocky Mountains has some area facing a moderate or higher level of hail risk.
The area of highest hail risk extends outward from the central Great Plains to include states as far east as Georgia and the Carolinas.







Remember though, although Central Florida is a tornado hotspot, most of them are fairly weak. This is because during the wet season very strong thunderstorms are common on a daily basis and although the atmosphere usually does not contain the necessary dynamics for tornadoes, sometimes sea breeze collisions interacting with powerful thunderstorm cells can create localized shear thus weak rotation, and tornadoes can form as a result. Most of them are weak, but every once in a while a couple of stronger tornadoes do develop surprisingly in such conditions.

Furthermore because it is sub-tropical here we can get tornadoes year round, during the dry season, even though its the dry season it still does rain from frontal systems, we can sometimes get tornadoes this way during the Winter into Spring. Ironically Florida's dry season can be more wet then some might think. There are years like this year where it is very dry and quiet rain wise, but others years like ones with El Nino dominant can mean torrential rain and frequent severe weather because strong frontal systems with all the best lift and dynamics combine with deep tropical m moisture from the Caribbean. I love El Nino because we get exciting weather the whole year and really no dry season.


La Nina is the opposite generally, meaning a much drier than normal dry season, and often a shorter than normal wet season. La Nina is very harsh on Florida's ecosystem.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
167. txjac
Quoting TropicTraveler:
There's something in Steven Covey's work about two circles - one inside the other, with the inside one being much smaller than the outside. He calls the inside our circle of influence and the outside our circle of concern. He suggests that if we focus on what we can influence we avoid driving ourselves batty over stuff we can't influence (like world hunger, global warming, etc.) So we pay a lot of attention and put our emotional energy into things we can influence, like limiting our driving, recycling (my examples). I do what I can, where I can (including expressing my views), but I realize what I can't do as well. I too hate to think about irreversible change, so I keep on doing what I can.


Wish that I could plus you more than once!
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166. txjac
Quoting goosegirl1:
**saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.**

The proof will already be there for observation, just as the article says. If the polar ice caps melt, you may have to research a theory as to why this happened, but not that it happened at all. The lack of ice caps will serve as proof that they were indeed melting, as trite as that sounds. Same principle for the rain forests.

We were debating about GW when I was in college during the late 80's, when the theory was relatively new. We have had decades to observe the effects, and to research a solution, with no solution to GW in sight. As I always say, if you want to solve an enviromental issue, devise a way to convince those with the purse that they need to invest in a solution. The research will always follow the money. Make solar and windfarms profitable, and see where the money flows then.

My fear is that it has already taken too long for the supply of oil to reach a level that will make it too expensive to be profitable, and to open the door for altenatives. I worry for the beauty of the natural world, for the brutal glory of a polar bear or the intricate engineering of a tree frog. And I worry about generations of children to come, all around the world.



I hear what you are saying and agree with you wholeheartly ...

However I can only control my actions. I can invest my money in new technologies ...I can ride my bike, I can by a fuel efficient car ...I can walk ...I can vote in rep's that are in tune to the messages I want supported ...I can also work to encourage my friends and neighbors to do the same.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all!

Good afternoon CybrTeddy
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting Levi32:


Though the probability of storms impacting the U.S. is also a function of the mean circulation pattern during the hurricane season. For example, in 2004 and 2005 the mean 500mb steering pattern over the August-October period favored landfall tracks more than out-to-sea tracks due to ridging over southeast Canada.

Specific tracks are based a lot in "luck," but the seasonal probability of where storms will tend to go is something that can be forecasted to some extent based on the overall summer pattern.





Hi Levi. Have you analized how the steering pattern will be for the Atlantic 2012 season,or is still too early to see the features that will be the key to a pattern in particular?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
There's something in Steven Covey's work about two circles - one inside the other, with the inside one being much smaller than the outside. He calls the inside our circle of influence and the outside our circle of concern. He suggests that if we focus on what we can influence we avoid driving ourselves batty over stuff we can't influence (like world hunger, global warming, etc.) So we pay a lot of attention and put our emotional energy into things we can influence, like limiting our driving, recycling (my examples). I do what I can, where I can (including expressing my views), but I realize what I can't do as well. I too hate to think about irreversible change, so I keep on doing what I can.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Landfalls are more a function of pure luck: on where the long wave position just happens to be when the one or few US approaching storms just happen to come along.


Though the probability of storms impacting the U.S. is also a function of the mean circulation pattern during the hurricane season. For example, in 2004 and 2005 the mean 500mb steering pattern over the August-October period favored landfall tracks more than out-to-sea tracks due to ridging over southeast Canada.

Specific tracks are based a lot in "luck," but the seasonal probability of where storms will tend to go is something that can be forecasted to some extent based on the overall summer pattern.



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Afternoon all!
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**saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.**

The proof will already be there for observation, just as the article says. If the polar ice caps melt, you may have to research a theory as to why this happened, but not that it happened at all. The lack of ice caps will serve as proof that they were indeed melting, as trite as that sounds. Same principle for the rain forests.

We were debating about GW when I was in college during the late 80's, when the theory was relatively new. We have had decades to observe the effects, and to research a solution, with no solution to GW in sight. As I always say, if you want to solve an enviromental issue, devise a way to convince those with the purse that they need to invest in a solution. The research will always follow the money. Make solar and windfarms profitable, and see where the money flows then.

My fear is that it has already taken too long for the supply of oil to reach a level that will make it too expensive to be profitable, and to open the door for altenatives. I worry for the beauty of the natural world, for the brutal glory of a polar bear or the intricate engineering of a tree frog. And I worry about generations of children to come, all around the world.
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Quoting wxmod:


Jimmy Carter tried to accomplish what you are suggesting.

And no, it's not you against the blog. I don't sense anyone being against anyone here.

I'll be honest, I don't know much about Jimmy Carter or what he tried to do. But if it was to create better energy sources, more efficient cars, lights, etc., he certainly didn't fail as you seem to suggest. Maybe not a total success- we still haven't reached that at all. But certainly not a failure.
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158. txjac
Quoting wxmod:


Jimmy Carter tried to accomplish what you are suggesting.

And no, it's not you against the blog. I don't sense anyone being against anyone here.


I think that its just a sense of frustration. I know at least that I feel like that there's a lot of doom and gloom ...rightfully so. But we also need to focus individually on what we can do to make changes.
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157. wxmod
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I feel like it's me against the blog :P
How does it not become irreversible: We become more energy efficient, use more solar/wind power, less fossil fuels. We use energy efficient lighting. We make better electric cars. Etc, etc, etc. It's not going to happen overnight. But it can happen. And it can stop global warming.


Jimmy Carter tried to accomplish what you are suggesting.

And no, it's not you against the blog. I don't sense anyone being against anyone here.
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Quoting txjac:


Too easy to blame just fossil fuels. How many of us here on the blog carpool to work or getting the kids to school or extra activities ...how many are driving 8 cyclinder vehicles? How many driving hybrids? How many are recycling? How many are making numerous trips to the stores ...take a bike or walk a time or two?

One thing that has always bothered me is that I must pass an emissions test yearly. If I can pass I'm not on the road. Why are large trucks and semi's exempt from that ...they are the ones belching the black smoke in the air.

Things are being looked in to and starting to be used. Solar, wind ...fricton from cars on roads being turned in to power cities (I believe that this is being tested in Isreal) some others are working on an algae substance as a replacement for fossil fuels.


Exactly. The base is there. We just have to build on it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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