CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.
Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:
1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.
2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.
How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.
Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.
Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
Without including 2005, the average of the remaining 4 neutral years on Dr.Masters' list is:
60divided-by4 or 15 named storms
33divided-by4 or ~8 hurricanes
18divided-by4 or 4to5 majors
Bowing segments (also known as Bow Echos) are associated with strong lines of storms. They get their name from their archers bow like shape. They often produce very damaging straight line winds and some times tornadoes.
What tropical activity are you talking about?
Thank you! They said they are possible in South Florida tonight and Friday. That's kind of rare down here....I think
Thank you! The NWS said they are possible in South Florida either tonight or tomorrow.
For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.
From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.
Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.
Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-06044 5-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
933 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE,
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. STORMS LATE TONIGHT
COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
TORNADOES: SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE MOVE
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVEL OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING, BUT THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. STILL, CONDITIONS ARE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL,
ESPECIALLY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE INCREASING TO
2500 J/KG, LIFTED INDICES DROP TO -8C TO -9C, AND A DRY LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. TIMING IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, AS THE CURRENT MCS
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN UNDER THAT SCENARIO, ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE LOOP CURRENT AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. USING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH, WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND NAPLES
AREA FROM 06-12Z, AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
12Z- 18Z FRIDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
FXUS62 KTBW 051746
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODELS VERY POOR HANDLING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND
EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT. COMPLEX SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG U/L LOW TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ONLY BE IN THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG U/L FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT U/L
DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND CREATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE
EQUATION AS AN MCS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
MOVE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT AND PUSH EAST OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE AND WILL FORECAST
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
CAPE
Supercell Composite
Lifted Index
SCC027-085-051945-
/O.NEW.KCAE.SV.W.0055.120405T1919Z-120405T1945Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT
* AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TURBEVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH SUMTER... AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
* SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TURBEVILLE AND CENTRAL
CROSSROADS
REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.
LAT...LON 3380 7994 3377 7999 3374 7999 3393 8022
3401 8007 3401 8003 3405 8000 3400 7990
3398 7990 3394 7997 3389 7994 3389 7989
3389 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 260DEG 11KT 3396 8011
$$
SJN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1226 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-060100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1226 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REACHING
AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR BY 6 TO 9 PM...POINTS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE BY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO ALLEVIATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS
WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...BEFORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET. MOVEMENT WILL BE QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST. GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND AN
ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALL BE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LINGERING DRY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE DAY.
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE POST-FRONTAL LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
$$
SEDLOCK/GUSEMAN
Well, a good chunk anyways..
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-13 3-060200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0148.120405T1900Z-120406T0200Z/
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
Good evening all! That's some nice stats...the neutral years had more storms on average since 95
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/1103 6451-mixed-blessing-cleaning-up-pollutants-fueled- hurricanes-study-finds?lite
These guys had it figured it out long before us....;)
The atmosphere is looking to be quite favorable for severe weather tonight. However, the one thing I am doubting is the lifting mechanisms to produce the thunderstorms in the first place. The MCS near Louisiana has just about completely fallen apart, and I think that was what was supposed to bring significant convection into the area tonight. It looks like the convective triggers(convergence) seem to be of biggest concern whether we will see significant activity or not.
It you noticed that is why the NWS only has our storm chances at 50% tonight despite increasing favorable atmosphere for convective and strong convective growth. Indeed this has been the major reason we have lacked in rain for a log time now. There frequently has been a lack of triggering to to force convective development.
That being said I wouldn't get your hopes about tonight until we can see there is a significant amount of thunderstorms approaching offshore. Unlike last night, anything that develops shouldn't weaken as much as it did, but unlike last night there isn't a powerful MCS in the gulf headed this way. There was some decent action earlier but it has fallen apart which does concern me somewhat.
I am honestly not impressed with our chances of thunderstorms at the moment for tonight with all being said, hopefully we can get something to trigger activity later, the upper disturbance approaching right now is looking a bit unhealthy.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
351 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
SCC041-089-052030-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120405T2030Z/
FLORENCE SC-WILLIAMSBURG SC-
351 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORENCE COUNTIES...
AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR NIXONVILLE TO OLANTA...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LAKE
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HEBRON
CROSSROADS...HEBRON...SCRANTON...CADES AND KINGSTREE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
LAT...LON 3400 7990 3387 7958 3355 7976 3374 7999
3377 8000 3383 7991 3388 7989 3388 7994
3390 7996 3395 7998 3399 7990 3405 8001
3405 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 306DEG 16KT 3383 7991
$$
SRP
Those acoustic*shocks have about the same effect as fishing with dynamite.
* Used to develop sonogram maps of the local sub-seabed geology
Ahhhhhh, mannnnn! Now the blog will never be the same! LOL
Great choice in your first embedding of a video!
Andrew packed a mega punch for a small hurricane....so did Charley as well
There is much more to tropical cyclone formation and intensification than merely SST temps. If it was that simple then tropical cyclones wouldn't have people with MS's and PHD's in meteorology scratching their heads sometimes.
You can't just look at SST's being above normal as a reason to doubt the tropical cyclone prediction.
"While cool phases [that the study correlated with air pollution] correspond to periods with lower hurricane activity in the North Atlantic," Booth said, "they are also linked with widespread persistent African drought [and SouthAmerica] (1970s and 1980s) -- with all the associated food and mortality related impacts."
And if there is a causal effect as well as a correlation, that air pollution also masked the effect of GlobalWarming on hurricane development during the '70s and '80s. ie We may not be experiencing an especially active period for hurricanes (ie within the historically normal statistical variation), but rather we are now finally experiencing the unmasked new normal.
Hahahaha.
Hey, how do you do video embedding on this site? Most of the time I try it doesn't work.
From Ruskin,FL NWS:
Complex situation later this afternoon and overnight as a few separate areas of thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather will push across the forecast area. Although the following times are the best windows of opportunity for severe weather, they are by no means all inclusive. There could be strong to severe thunderstorms a few hours either side of the times given. The main threat will be strong damaging winds and hail. However an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
A cold front will approach west central and southwest Florida this evening and move across the region tonight. An area of showers and thunderstorms approaching the Florida panhandle will push east today with additional storms possibly developing ahead of and merging with the line. Another area of storms will likely develop west of Tampa Bay and push onshore later tonight. Strong upper level energy will create a threat for a few storms to be severe across the entire forecast area late this afternoon and overnight. The stronger storms will begin to threaten areas north of Brooksville between 4 and 10 PM this evening...and will spread south and east across the area through the night. Timing further south is more difficult as there may be a few separate areas of storms which have yet to develop. The Tampa Bay area will likely see the best threat of severe weather between 10 PM and 4 AM...and the Fort Myers area between 2 AM and 8 AM.
On youtube..."share" --> "embed" --> "Use old embed code"
Yeah the models have performed poorly with this system as well as the NWS has noted.
Ironically the best upper support for convection may have already come and gone(the shortwave with its associated MCS last night). We just didn't have the needed ingredients to keep the line strong. Although it did make it way farther then model forecasts. All models had it completely dissipating way before reaching Florida.
For now it looks like our best shot for getting some action will now probably be overnight because the current MCS approaching completely collapsed. Hopefully the colder air aloft from the upper low and the approaching cold front will fire a new cluster of thunderstorms over the warm loop current overnight in the gulf.
Link
What's MCS
Neutral it appears...
Mesoscale Convective System, an organized complex of thunderstorms. They are many times associated with tropical cyclones. A squall line is an example of an MCS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
* UNTIL 515 PM EDT
* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BOILING SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
COWPENS AND MAYO.
THICKETTY.
GAFFNEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO IS LIKELY DEVELOPING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OFFICE BUILDING. PLACE AS MANY FLOORS
AND WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.
TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
&&
LAT...LON 3518 8171 3503 8159 3492 8196 3504 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 246DEG 22KT 3501 8189
$$
Do you think there's a tornado?
Oh I see thanks 13 I gotta run to swim practice
Yeah, that's what the CFS have been predicting for a little while
so, even in a "quiet" year, it only takes one to make it memorable.
Still can't let our guard down.
That's the same thing as Mesovortices right?
file image:
Bow Echo Mesovortices. Part I: Processes That Influence Their Damaging Potential
Nolan T. Atkins and Michael St. Laurent
Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, Vermont
There is probably one developing.
No, mesovorticies are small rotational features.
That ensemble mean is not an El Nino at all.
It goes neutral on the El Nino side, and then goes back to neutral/La Nina.
Heck, it's even perfectly neutral through the end of August and all of September and October.
I wonder which, if any, individual models tend to consistently beat the average for skill?
Viewing: 101 - 151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index