Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 51 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index

51. ScottLincoln 4:22 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx: Scott, Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work! Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. Picture was taken at the high water mark sign in downtown Jackson when I was on an orientation trip. FYI... the record high water for Jackson, MS, is from the 1979 Easter Flood on the Pearl River. People can think what they want... they can find me through public channels if they really wanted to verify my existence. And like I mentioned in the other comment thread, I think even my salary and work email are considered public, so people can find out and confirm all sorts things if they really wanted to. Also a good time to note again while talking about this that although I am an NWS employee and my work experience combines with my education background to help form my opinions, they are not necessarily the opinions of NOAA/NWS and I don't speak on behalf of them. All that scientific integrity stuff, ya know. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1480

52. ScottLincoln 4:25 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: ScottLincoln..you have been here since 2002, you of all people should know with the "unpopular" website called Weather Undergound of how MANY people pose as meterologists and claim to work at the NWS..again good for you if you are who you say you are..my POINT was NO one on this blog should be giving advice to people about life and death issues concerning the weather. They should refer to their local NWS or local meterologists, law enforcement, etc. As you professed to work there, then they can reach you THERE (NWS) at a credible point of contact for those type of questions, not on WU. Like I said man, nothing against you or any other meterologists that come to this blog as I have never claimed to be one myself..much respect that you earned that title. I am only here for the interest of weather only! My post where I used the term "unpopular" - I was using sarcasm :) Clearly people should get information from their local NWS offices, that is the official information. I'm not sure I ever professed to be the information source for those other offices? Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1480

53. BahaHurican 4:27 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting lhwhelk: I believe after all that I would prefer to live with the danger of a hurricane, which is moderately predictable (I evacuated for Rita, which was a bust, and Ike, when I had to have a new roof), than with the danger of a tornado, where you don't have a clue. Maybe a tornado will come, maybe not, and it could wipe your house off the map and leave your neighbor's house untouched, or just hit 10 miles away, touching down for 1/2 mile. Agreed. Tornados care the @#%$ outa me.... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

54. BahaHurican 4:31 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Ok, this sounds like a really unnecessary argument going on here. Both Scott and ncstorm have been around here for ages, and while ncstorm's point is valid, it certainly is not grounds for attacking someone's reputation/validity/person. The concern is understandable, but perhaps misdirected. Can we "let it dead", as people my way would say? Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

55. Neapolitan 4:33 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Dr. Forbes just updated the TOR:CON indices. I would imagine he'll make additional adjustments as time goes by: Friday April 13 OK southwest - 5 OK northeast - 4 KS southeast - 4 TX northwest near Childress and Wichita Falls - 4 Saturday April 14 IA northwest - 4 IA southwest - 4 to 5 IA rest - 3 to 4 IL northwest - 3 KS central - 8 MN southwest - 4 MN southeast - 3 MO north - 4 NE east - 7 OK southwest, central - 7 SD southeast - 4 TX east panhandle - 5 WI southwest -3 Other areas - less than 2 Sunday April 15 AR northwest - 4 IA east - 6 IL northwest - 4 KS southeast - 4 MN southeast -6 MN south - 4 MO - 4 OK southeast - 4 TX northeast - 4 Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11139

56. BahaHurican 4:36 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
It would really be something if we get some seriously bad tornado damage on Friday 13th..... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

57. Dennis8 4:43 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican: It would really be something if we get some seriously bad tornado damage on Friday 13th..... We can only hope so! Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 441

58. ILwthrfan 4:45 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Just yet another endless parade of storms that goes poof after crossing the Mississippi. Dew points here in the mid 20's east of I-55. They have been that way for 6 straight days now. This MCS has no chance of reaching me. Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006

59. hurricanehunter27 4:51 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Dennis8: We can only hope so! What?! Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3347

60. ScottLincoln 4:52 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican: ...while ncstorm's point is valid, it certainly is not grounds for attacking someone's reputation/validity/person. Can we "let it dead", as people my way would say? Good advice. I do understand his/her concern - I do not feel as attacked as it may have came across. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1480

61. weatherh98 4:52 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: Dr. Forbes just updated the TOR:CON indices. I would imagine he'll make additional adjustments as time goes by: Friday April 13 OK southwest - 5 OK northeast - 4 KS southeast - 4 TX northwest near Childress and Wichita Falls - 4 Saturday April 14 IA northwest - 4 IA southwest - 4 to 5 IA rest - 3 to 4 IL northwest - 3 KS central - 8 MN southwest - 4 MN southeast - 3 MO north - 4 NE east - 7 OK southwest, central - 7 SD southeast - 4 TX east panhandle - 5 WI southwest -3 Other areas - less than 2 Sunday April 15 AR northwest - 4 IA east - 6 IL northwest - 4 KS southeast - 4 MN southeast -6 MN south - 4 MO - 4 OK southeast - 4 TX northeast - 4 Just saw that on twc Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

62. ncstorm 4:53 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
12Z GFS Lifted Index Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

63. weatherh98 4:54 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Dennis8: We can only hope so! Are you crazy??? No we don't want that!! Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

64. ncstorm 4:54 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Good advice. I do understand his/her concern - I do not feel as attacked as it may have came across. I really wasnt trying to attack you Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

65. weatherh98 4:55 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: 12Z GFS Lifted Index The nam was showing -10 Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

66. ncstorm 4:56 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: The nam was showing -10 yeah I saw that..we will see which model will win out though Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

67. LargoFl 4:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1231 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172-173-131715- COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL 1231 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR... BROWARD COUNTY NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY PALM BEACH COUNTY * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 1226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. * THE STORM WILL AFFECT... SOUTHWEST RANCHES... PLANTATION... COOPER CITY... PINES BLVD AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE... NORTH PERRY AIRPORT... CAROL CITY... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS. LAT...LON 2573 8014 2589 8081 2651 8087 2668 8085 2671 8083 2670 8073 2677 8075 2678 8073 2675 8071 2676 8069 2681 8070 2687 8063 2695 8062 2695 8006 2656 8004 TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 295DEG 15KT 2603 8033 $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22402

68. BahaHurican 5:01 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Dennis8: We can only hope so! Not quite what I was thinking... more like the opposite... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

69. weatherh98 5:02 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: yeah I saw that..we will see which model will win out though Now its showing a -8 Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

70. BahaHurican 5:03 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Good advice. I do understand his/her concern - I do not feel as attacked as it may have came across. Quoting ncstorm: I really wasnt trying to attack you Ah... as I thought... Much more interesting stuff to argue about... lol Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

71. weatherh98 5:04 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Also looks like tomorrow that the RH could be as high as 95% with pretty hot temps too. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

72. Jedkins01 5:06 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. Picture was taken at the high water mark sign in downtown Jackson when I was on an orientation trip. FYI... the record high water for Jackson, MS, is from the 1979 Easter Flood on the Pearl River. People can think what they want... they can find me through public channels if they really wanted to verify my existence. And like I mentioned in the other comment thread, I think even my salary and work email are considered public, so people can find out and confirm all sorts things if they really wanted to. Also a good time to note again while talking about this that although I am an NWS employee and my work experience combines with my education background to help form my opinions, they are not necessarily the opinions of NOAA/NWS and I don't speak on behalf of them. All that scientific integrity stuff, ya know. I don't know why people bother to doubt if you work at the NWS. Granted a lot of people here have posed as fakes, but who cares? Does that mean its a rule that anyone who post's here as a meteorologist is fake? That's illogical and lazy to penalize the honest because of many dishonest. Maybe some of the critics have posted fake information and claims about themselves here so its a bit of a reaction as a result of a guilt complex. Anyways, good luck to you, personally I don't really care that much if someone is a fake or not, its an internet blog and that is going to happen, as stupid and pointless as it might be, it just is going to happen. Honesty is always good, for me, I am who I claim to be as well, a college student at a local college in Tampa Bay(SPC) saving money and planning to transfer to FSU for meteorology. No, I don't get deans list and straight A's in Calculus and Physics, I'm not science genius. In fact my grades are a little rough in Calculus, and I'll admit that, I get severe test anxiety for some reason with mathematics. I also make very little money as a janitor and I have a hard time just affording vehicle maintenance, fuel prices and car insurance, that's about all I can pay for, and yes I still live at home with my mom and dad. See, I'm fine with being completely open to who I am regardless of how much anyone else is making up about themselves. Its good to see you are being honest too, I didn't have any clue you worked at the NWS. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

73. LargoFl 5:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
hey Stormtracker..the seabreeze clouds are really building up right on top of me, cant see which way they are heading, not moving much at all but they are getting thick, someone just might get a good shower or two later on today Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22402

74. GeorgiaStormz 5:12 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SPC says any storms today could produce violent long track tornadoes, concerns about coverage precede moderate risk. Any storm should quickly become supercellular. If more storms form, a moderate would be in order, and if an area of supercells form, i woudnt be suprised to see a high end watch, even a PDS over central OK Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

75. LargoFl 5:13 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1236 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141- 144-147-131900- COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN- NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE- SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM- 1236 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 .NOW... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND IF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOP...THEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. && ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP $$ WEITLICH Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22402

76. nrtiwlnvragn 5:16 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131710Z - 131915Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

77. LargoFl 5:17 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1143 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 ARZ050-051-059>061-OKZ077-141645- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MCCURTAIN- 1143 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY SO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22402

78. Tropicsweatherpr 5:20 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Is there any live stream available where we can see the NOAA press conference about the Saturday's High Risk event that starts at 1 PM CDT? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8081

79. ncstorm 5:28 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
again, refer to your local NWS at their office MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131710Z - 131915Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ..DIAL.. 04/13/2012 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34379987 35809815 34399681 33789731 33359926 33500056 34379987 Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

80. entrelac 5:29 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Is there any live stream available where we can see the NOAA press conference about the Saturday's High Risk event that starts at 1 PM CDT? I thought that was a conference call thing. Link Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

81. weatherh98 5:30 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Is there any live stream available where we can see the NOAA press conference about the Saturday's High Risk event that starts at 1 PM CDT? Watch them downgrade the risk for tomorrow. but im not sure about if there is a live stream news feed Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

82. entrelac 5:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Bad weekend for this kind of weather. TX Motor Speedway in Ft Worth is hosting a NASCAR race tomorrow evening with 100,000 expected to attend. Many are already camping out. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

83. weatherh98 5:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
A storm is devoloping west of witchita falls Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

84. 1900hurricane 5:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
The new Day 2 Convective Outlook should be out in a couple of minutes. It'll be interesting to see how everything compares to this morning's outlook. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10322

85. Neapolitan 5:33 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Thanks to the very mild weather across the upper Midwest, Minnesota is practically ice-free many weeks ahead of schedule, with most lakes in the state setting new ice-out records, including many that have been keeping track for many doezns of years. This first image shows the median ice-out dates for the state's major lakes: ...while this second shows this year's ice-out dates: And, of course, a legend: Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11139

86. Barefootontherocks 5:34 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Weird that torcon doesn't rate central and Ncentral Oklahoma for today. Only SW and NE. How the heck are supercells gonna get across the state? And wouldn't it be just like an Oklahoma supercell to wreak havoc today when everyone is focused on tomorrow. Tornado prob is 10% in the now. We will have a watch soon. April 13, 2012 SPC tornado probability at 12:30 pm cdt outlook. (Oops. lol) *MCD already posted. Thanks guys ;) Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments:** 16233

87. Jedkins01 5:36 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting ScottLincoln: Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day... How soon you see the moderate or high risks does not necessarily correspond to how bad the event will be nor the density of severe weather. It is more related to perceived confidence in the event. Some of our biggest events in recent history did not have enhanced risks or wording until the day of the event. Some of our biggest bust events have had enhanced wording out far before the event. I wouldn't put meaning into how soon an area is highlighted as an indicator of severity. Many of ingredients for severe weather and even strong tornadoes are not known or observable until just before they occur. Very true, a large majority of the severe weather I've had living here in Central Florida didn't have any severe risk wording, including 2 tornadoes I've seen. During the wet season any given day can spark severe weather. This is because most of the severe weather and thunderstorms/rainfall is triggered by meso-scale/surface events, which models really struggle forecasting and anticipating properly. That being said the NWS and local MET's will always mention the possibility of severe during those type of situations, but it can't be done so with enough confidence to put up significant severe highlights, and watches aren't usually issued ever. But if you live here long enough you learn that severe weather often isn't preceded by severe risk highlights or watch boxes. Besides, severe weather warnings from the NWS have improved so much that many times that's all people need to know anyway. After all, like you said, there is no need to be hiding in your basement from a severe weather outlook unless a warning is actually issued. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

88. StormTracker2K 5:36 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: hey Stormtracker..the seabreeze clouds are really building up right on top of me, cant see which way they are heading, not moving much at all but they are getting thick, someone just might get a good shower or two later on today If the dewpoints were higher then we would see a bigger coverage of storms but instead that appears to be happening in S FL where moisture levels are higher. My friend in Fort Lauderdale said they are getting pounded right now with very heavy rain and heavy lightning. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

89. Neapolitan 5:37 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
The new SPC 2nd-day outlook is out, and a second High Risk area has been added, while the Moderate Risk area has been greatly expanded. Some of the larger metro areas now under the High Risk gun tomorrow: --Oklahoma City --Wichita --Omaha --Lincoln --Sioux City Kansas City is now in the Moderate Risk category. Look out... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11139

90. Tropicsweatherpr 5:37 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
The High Risk area is expanded: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB AND FAR WRN IA... ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK INTO NEB AND IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD INTO SRN MN AND WRN IL... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUN MORNING. AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...A MIDLEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 100 KT WILL BE NOSING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z...TIGHTENING FURTHER AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NEWD ACROSS KS AND NEB. THIS BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY OVER ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB...WITH THE 00Z DRYLINE POSITION ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NEB NEAR THE LOW SWD ACROSS KS AND INTO WRN OK AND NW TX. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO SRN MN. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX ACROSS OK AND INTO SRN KS AT 00Z. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS THE WARM FRONT. COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM TX TO NEB. ...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA... A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FORCE MORNING RAIN AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING JUST TO THE W...AND A BROAD WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED AND RH LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHELTERED AS WELL...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES. CELLS WOULD LIKELY FORM OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE HIGH RISK AREA WHERE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THEN WOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES. ...CNTRL KS...WRN AND CNTRL OK...NWRN TX... SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINLY EXISTS IN REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAY FROM KS INTO OK AND NW TX. HOWEVER...HIGH END SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL HIGH. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CAPPING IN PLACE EARLY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE MOST INHIBITION BY AFTERNOON...WHEN WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 2000-2500 J/KG. STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY HELP KEEP STORMS DISCRETE. FAVORABLY ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS WELL AS VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR TORNADOES AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL PLAINS VIOLENT TORNADO DAYS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND TO PROCEED NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEN...THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. FARTHER S INTO TX...DAYTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT COMING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. ..JEWELL.. 04/13/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1734Z (1:34PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8081

91. weatherh98 5:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
They added a second high risk area. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

92. Jedkins01 5:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: hey Stormtracker..the seabreeze clouds are really building up right on top of me, cant see which way they are heading, not moving much at all but they are getting thick, someone just might get a good shower or two later on today yeah its because there is a decent amount of low level moisture and surface instability. However, there is a pretty decent cap in the atmosphere, so convection will be hard pressed to develop, but it can't be ruled out given what exists. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

93. weatherh98 5:39 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: The new SPC 2nd-day outlook is out, and a second High Risk area has been added. Stop Beating me to it!!!:) Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

94. StormTracker2K 5:39 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT LAUDERDALE... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT * AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY METRO AREAS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FT. LAUDERDALE. IN ADDITION TO THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS...PREVIOUS HEAVY SHOWERS RESULTED IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS AND DITCHES. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

95. Jedkins01 5:40 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: If the dewpoints were higher then we would see a bigger coverage of storms but instead that appears to be happening in S FL where moisture levels are higher. My friend in Fort Lauderdale said they are getting pounded right now with very heavy rain and heavy lightning. It's much more than just moisture, its also that we have a cap overhead limiting cloud height. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

96. RTSplayer 5:42 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
85: That's just NUTS. Melted 3 to 5 weeks ahead of time for most of those lakes... One of them actually melted the full 7 weeks ahead of time. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

97. nigel20 5:43 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Thanks Dr. Masters good morning all! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

98. StormTracker2K 5:43 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: 85: That's just NUTS. Melted 3 to 5 weeks ahead of time for most of those lakes... This is the result. You guys could be in Dust bowl type conditions by July. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

99. weatherh98 5:44 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Thanks Dr. Masters good morning all! morning nigel! Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

100. WatchingThisOne 5:46 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
OT: Link to shake map for M 5.7 off Honshu Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

101. GeorgiaStormz 5:46 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
the wording from the SPC for the southern part of the high risk area doesnt really impress me. The upper part sounds worse. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

Viewing: 51 - 101

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters