Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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1751. SouthDadeFish 1:40 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Well here's your helicity: 600-700 is very strong, which is why the tornado approaching Manchester OK has been able maintain itself so long. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1753. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:40 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Too close, too close, too close... AT 836 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC 2 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GREENSBURG. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25351

1754. MAweatherboy1 1:40 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Massive debris ball! Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1755. RTSplayer 1:40 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
LOL. I'm scanning the radars and satellite myself, while listening simultaneously to 3 different state's local weather stations and a live stream from a chaser. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1756. Xyrus2000 1:41 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wichita needs to start preparing here. The storm to the southwest doesn't look like it's going to change it's mind. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1018

1757. NCHurricane2009 1:41 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Manchaster, OK is about to get nailed! Debris ball on the radar on News9 coverage! This is not good... Greensburg, KS also another high-profile event... What about the storm heading toward Witchita? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1758. hurricanehunter27 1:41 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Too close, too close, too close... AT 836 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC 2 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GREENSBURG. Omg. Greensburg dodged a bullet. If the public could see it at night it was probably large. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1759. xcool 1:41 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season. I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting. See: http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are: 1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997 Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best. 1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys) 1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes) 1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia) 1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley) 1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise) 1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall 1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew) 1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall 1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny) Average = 7.8/4/0.8 Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7 As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane: El Nino 21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina 21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes Neutral 25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina + Neutral 23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons). The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted. by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org Member Since:* September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1760. nervouspete 1:42 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
That chase footage of the Cherokee tornado was incredible. I'd never seen a storm chase at night - or as close as to make no difference. Eerie, mesmerising stuff. Lots of people lucking out today as the tornadoes skirt the population centres. May it continue into the night as I go to bed. Hope they're missing the farms too. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

1761. MAweatherboy1 1:42 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
WWUS53 KICT 150136 SVSICT SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC077-150200- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120415T0200Z/ HARPER KS- 836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARPER COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT... AT 831 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WALDRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ANTHONY AND BLUFF CITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3700 9833 3731 9810 3715 9780 3712 9780 3700 9799 3699 9833 TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 230DEG 35KT 3701 9809 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...2.50IN $$ KLEINSASSER Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1762. hurricanehunter27 1:42 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
xcool that post was kinda inappropriate for what is going on right now. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1763. redux 1:43 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
whats the story with the cell north of wichita? Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

1764. 1900hurricane 1:43 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Looks like a second discrete line is developing around the Greensburg storm. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10380

1765. HurricaneDean07 1:44 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting xcool: TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season. I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting. See: http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are: 1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997 Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best. 1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys) 1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes) 1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia) 1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley) 1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise) 1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall 1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew) 1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall 1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny) Average = 7.8/4/0.8 Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7 As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane: El Nino 21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina 21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes Neutral 25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina + Neutral 23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons). The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted. by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org That's actually pretty close to my predictions i set early this month. 13/6/2 Member Since:* October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4054

1766. RTSplayer 1:44 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
The Greensburg tornado velocity signatures are ridiculous... We also have 3 DIFFERENT vortex signatures in 3 different counties in Iowa! F3 Harper KS 63 dBZ 41,000 ft. 76 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 31 knots SW (231) 0 R5 Harper OK 63 dBZ 36,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 31 knots SW (230) 0 I6 Lucas IA 70 dBZ 42,000 ft. 67 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 60 knots WSW (254) 0 P9 Poweshiek IA 59 dBZ 32,000 ft. 30 kg/m² 50% Chance 100% Chance 1.00 in. 66 knots SSW (213) 0 Q8 Marion IA 75 dBZ 37,000 ft. 69 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 0.00 in. 43 knots WSW (250) 0 E1 Custer NE 52 dBZ 24,000 ft. 16 kg/m² 0% Chance 80% Chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SW (233) Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1767. oddspeed 1:45 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Manchaster, OK is about to get nailed! Debris ball on the radar on News9 coverage! This is not good... Greensburg, KS also another high-profile event... What about the storm heading toward Witchita? the blue / green showing the vortex: Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

1768. Bluestorm5 1:45 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting xcool: TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season. I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting. See: http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are: 1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997 Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best. 1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys) 1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes) 1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia) 1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley) 1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise) 1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall 1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew) 1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall 1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny) Average = 7.8/4/0.8 Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7 As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane: El Nino 21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina 21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes Neutral 25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes La Nina + Neutral 23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S. 13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons). The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted. by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks Member Since:* August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1769. LargoFl 1:46 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: The Greensburg tornado velocity signatures are ridiculous... We also have 3 DIFFERENT vortex signatures in 3 different counties in Iowa! F3 Harper KS 63 dBZ 41,000 ft. 76 kg/m� 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 31 knots SW (231) 0 R5 Harper OK 63 dBZ 36,000 ft. 70 kg/m� 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 31 knots SW (230) 0 I6 Lucas IA 70 dBZ 42,000 ft. 67 kg/m� 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 60 knots WSW (254) 0 P9 Poweshiek IA 59 dBZ 32,000 ft. 30 kg/m� 50% Chance 100% Chance 1.00 in. 66 knots SSW (213) 0 Q8 Marion IA 75 dBZ 37,000 ft. 69 kg/m� 100% Chance 100% Chance 0.00 in. 43 knots WSW (250) 0 E1 Custer NE 52 dBZ 24,000 ft. 16 kg/m� 0% Chance 80% Chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SW (233) Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1770. MAweatherboy1 1:46 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Debris ball getting even bigger in Manchester near KS/OK border Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1771. hurricanehunter27 1:46 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I have never seen a red TVS. This is a legendary tornado on the ground. Greensburg storm. Debris ball also! Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1772. LargoFl 1:47 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IAC157-171-150230- /O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0024.120415T0133Z-120415T0230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 833 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... POWESHIEK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... TAMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT * AT 832 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARSHALLTOWN TO GRINNELL TO PELLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GRINNELL...TOLEDO...TAMA...MONTEZUMA...BROOKLYN... DYSART...GRINNELL AIRPORT...MONTOUR...GARWIN...GLADBROOK...SEARSBORO ...MALCOM... TRAER...CHELSEA...CLUTIER...VINING...ELBERON...IRV ING...DEEP RIVER AND HARTWICK. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 204. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME... SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING. && LAT...LON 4151 9275 4219 9277 4228 9230 4151 9229 TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 240DEG 56KT 4201 9281 4174 9276 4147 9291 WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN $$ COGIL Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1773. CybrTeddy 1:47 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks All be danged, Hurricane discussions offtopic. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20279

1774. 1900hurricane 1:48 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting redux: whats the story with the cell north of wichita? Consistently tornado warned along its path. Velocity data around the storm is noisy, but a couplet can be seen. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10380

1776. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:48 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Gate to gate velocites on this storm are near 300 knots. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25351

1777. Jedkins01 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Well here's your helicity: 600-700 is very strong, which is why the tornado approaching Manchester OK has been able maintain itself so long. Helicity to me is probably the most important thing to watch when it comes to tornado formation and intensity overall in my opinion. Of course you need many other things present for a tornado outbreak, but my experience of observing tornado events, and my knowledge of what helicity means atmospherically speaking sums up to it being a very important figure in tornado forecasting in my opinion... Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5336

1778. entrelac 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Must we wank now? Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

1779. hurricanehunter27 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I think Greensburg just dodged a EF5. Just saying that because of how ridiculous radar is on this storm. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1780. HurricaneTracker01 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Are cells continuing to pop up or have they basically remained the same? Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 125

1781. Bluestorm5 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
That new tornado warning for Greensburg area tornado is HUGE. It covers about 5 counties O_O NWS Dodge city is basically trying to say this tornado is going to stay on ground long and the direction can change quickly. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1782. LargoFl 1:49 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
TORNADO WARNING KSC077-191-150230- /O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0028.120415T0147Z-120415T0230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 847 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT * AT 842 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ANTHONY...BLUFF CITY...CALDWELL...ARGONIA...FREEPORT AND MILAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3700 9778 3699 9811 3706 9816 3740 9774 3703 9749 3699 9769 3699 9777 TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 237DEG 30KT 3703 9802 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...2.50IN $$ KLEINSASSER Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1783. WxGeekVA 1:50 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Debris ball near Greensburg.... Ulp. Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

1784. hurricanehunter27 1:51 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
This is terrifying Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1785. 1900hurricane 1:51 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: I have never seen a red TVS. This is a legendary tornado on the ground. Greensburg storm. Vorticity signature continues to be off the map. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10380

1786. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:51 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I think we may be tracking an EF5 tornado north of Greensburg. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25351

1787. CybrTeddy 1:51 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Gate to gate velocites on this storm are near 300 knots. 300 knots!?! This is an EF5. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20279

1788. wunderkidcayman 1:52 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
btw new CFS E1 E2 E3 Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5510

1789. Bluestorm5 1:53 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Greensburg just dodged EF4/5 it looked like. Also tornado on OK/KS border is 150 knots and gaining strength. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1790. hurricanehunter27 1:53 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: 300 knots!?! This is an EF5. If it was 300 knots on the ground it would be the strongest wind ever measured on earth correct? Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1791. 1900hurricane 1:53 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: That new tornado warning for Greensburg area tornado is HUGE. It covers about 5 counties O_O NWS Dodge city is basically trying to say this tornado is going to stay on ground long and the direction can change quickly. Yeah, that parent supercell is probably the most extreme one I have seen in a very long time. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10380

1793. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Oh no... AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR FELLSBURG. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25351

1794. Bluestorm5 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: 300 knots!?! This is an EF5. hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1795. LargoFl 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC089-123-141-150230- /O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/ OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-JEWELL KS- 848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL...MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT... AT 846 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VICTOR...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BELOIT...GLEN ELDER...ASHERVILLE...SIMPSON...IONIA...SCOTTSVILLE ... JEWELL AND RANDALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED. && LAT...LON 3913 9858 3915 9858 3972 9833 3964 9792 3935 9792 3921 9802 3921 9848 3914 9848 TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 216DEG 61KT 3932 9821 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN $$ ADO Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1796. hurricanehunter27 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I bet Ed Oneal is pissing his pants chasing the Greensburg storm. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1797. WxGeekVA 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
It might have 2 mesos and 2 tornadoes...Greensburg cell Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

1798. RTSplayer 1:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
tornado SE of Salina M4 67 dBZ 49,000 ft. 75 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 35 knots SW (233) tornado in Harper County 0 R5 66 dBZ 43,000 ft. 80 kg/m² 80% chance 100% chance 2.00 in. 29 knots SW (232) Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1799. aspectre 1:55 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
1768 Bluestorm5: [lengthy quotation] Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks If you feel that way, WHY did you repost it in its entirety? Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

1800. Bluestorm5 1:55 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: If it was 300 knots on the ground it would be the strongest wind ever measured on earth correct? correct. Storngest ever on earth is Moore tornado at 318 MPH. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1801. hurricanehunter27 1:55 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots. I don't think that is how it works Blue. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

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