Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

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Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Good morning. The name Irene has been retired from the list of names and replaced with Irma.

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Irene has been retired.

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off topic but important..anyone up in that area, pls keep an Eye out for this car and child..................WVC001-003-005-007-009-011- 013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-0 55-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-0 87-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-131600-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING THE ABDUCTED
CHILD IN PRINCETON...MERCER COUNTY. THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
ARE LOOKING FOR PORSHIA ATWELL...A WHITE...FEMALE...8 YEARS
OLD...FOUR FEET TWO INCHES TALL...75 POUNDS. THE CHILD WAS LAST
SEEN AT CAMP CREEK...WEST VIRGINIA...AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN
EXTREME DANGER. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN WEARING UNKNOWN CLOTHING.
AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY HER
FATHER...TRACEY LEE ATWELL...A 49 YEAR OLD MALE...6 FEET 2 INCHES
TALL...180 POUNDS...WITH HAZEL EYES.

THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN A WHITE JEEP CHEROKEE LAREDO...WITH A
WEST VIRGINIA LICENSE PLATE NUMBER 6C...3202.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF PORSHIA
ATWELL...PLEASE CONTACT WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE AT
304...425...2101. OR YOUR LOCAL 911...OR *SP ON YOUR CELL PHONE.

$$
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Thank you Dr. Masters. I hope everyone in the warning area take heed and find their safe place to ride out these storms.
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Both the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast Gulf Stream are certainly going to play a factor to any storms that cross their thresholds this season. 
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Thanks for the post, Dr. M!

Tomorrow (and to a lesser extent, Sunday) look to be very eventful weather days.
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Wow, stay safe everyone. Thanks Dr. Masters.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.