Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

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2551. jamesrainier 6:42 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting entrelac: There's not much information coming out of Wichita but there is a decent flow coming out of Woodward. I think that's giving some momentum to a fallacy that is making the rounds on the net. What fallacy? Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2552. jamesrainier 6:46 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0175.htm l Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2553. entrelac 6:50 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier: What fallacy? The fallacy that Woodward is in worse shape than Wichita. Woodward was hit hard, absolutely, but Wichita was also hit hard and by a potentially larger, more powerful tornado. Emergency officials in Wichita have a much larger job to focus on right now so information is not flowing like it is out of Woodward; which cannot handle the blow it has been dealt and is pleading for help. Like ScottLincoln said, "I think the light of tomorrow will help tell the tale. The radar depiction of the Woodward storm is barely comparable to that of the tornadic circulation that went through Wichita.". Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

2554. jamesrainier 6:52 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
new blog Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2555. jamesrainier 6:54 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting entrelac: The fallacy that Woodward is in worse shape than Wichita. Woodward was hit hard, absolutely, but Wichita was also hit hard and by a potentially larger, more powerful tornado. Emergency officials in Wichita have a much larger job to focus on right now so information is not flowing like it is out of Woodward; which cannot handle the blow it has been dealt and is pleading for help. Thanks. I've been paying attention to Woodward because a friend's son lives there and he's been unable to get in contact with him. Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2556. entrelac 6:57 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier: Thanks. I've been paying attention to Woodward because a friend's son lives there and he can't get in contact with him. The West side of town was hit hardest. Don't know if that helps. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

2557. entrelac 6:57 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier: new blog It's 2am. I see the Dr is up with the rest of us... Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

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