Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.

We may not even get 6" was just saying from experience that has been the case with many of these Gulf storms. It does though look we are turing the corner with this event. As some of the long rain models bring in another cut off feature from TX to FL. So TX across the Gulf Coast & FL could really be settling in a wet pattern down the road something to watch. Even the guy near Austin just hang in there buddy more rain is coming for you guys to although you may have to wait 7 to 10 days.

Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...

Maybe it's the company then, all the info is public on the web. Pics, etc...as far as what is said, that's life, people talk, whether you, me, anyone like it or not, called freedom of speech.

It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

Hi Nea the worst of the severe could be down by you guys tomorrow so stay safe buddy!

Dew points over Florida now.Dewpoints over Florida tomorrow night.

Quoting hydrus:
Some decent blocking over Greenland..

Some low over Fl!

Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.

Theta-E now...( at two meters )Theta tomorrow night.

Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?

Dewpoint Temperature


Relative Humidity


CAPE

Live webcam via Wunderground of fresh snow on the ground in east-central Wisconsin. Up to 3" fell in a narrow swath overnight.

Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.

roflmao. Quote of the day

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Some low over Fl!

Yes..Low in 48 hours..

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
roflmao. Quote of the day

lol

Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.

Weak warm front in Gulf...

Quoting RitaEvac:
Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?

bust the cap

I take that back, it was more like a bull's eye of snow (from NWS Green Bay's co-op observers):

Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.

Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.

One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)

That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.


BTW, this doesn't mean I'm panicking and saying a moderate risk needs to be added for us and this will be a deadly out break, I'm just saying that people should be aware that it is possible for there to be a higher severe threat for us than the current model consensus suggests. If the low tracks further north the period of time for destabilization will be longer and severe risk higher. There are some pretty impressive out puts by the models but I will stress that i don't see anything suggesting this will be like a big spring outbreak in the southern plains. I don't see evidence to support that. I do certainly see plenty of evidence to support at least a chance of severe though. You can't ignore the cold pocket aloft that will be moving over head, impressive jet energy, good upper divergence, and impressive helicity.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?

Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.

Quoting hydrus:
One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..

Kinda looks like an Omega Block.(I know it isn't)

Quoting Jedkins01:



That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.

If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.

Quoting jeffs713:

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.

lmao, it was embarrassing. He kept talking over Neil Frank and Neil was being cut off and was looking aggravated.

Quoting sunlinepr:

Why hello there, Pineapple Express.

Day 2

Excerpt:

...CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW
PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND/SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL.



Is that in the Pressolinas?

Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-202300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM
CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...
ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST
COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...
NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY
FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND
INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT
WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE
THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY
COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN

TX radar time, storms are cranking up

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!

Good, take some more rain as we will hit a dry streak all the way into next week

Quoting jeffs713:

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?

She has an AMS seal of approval.

Quoting Jedkins01:



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.

Your insight is both unusual and, in my opinion, spot on.

Note too that Florida weather dynamics with regard to tornado potential during severe weather outbreaks is fertile ground for a PHd thesis in meteorology.
This is because there may well still be a lot of undiscovered territory there.

It may be just a hunch on my part but it seems to me that the presence of that big Gulf of Mexico is the key link in the chain when it comes to how (relatively) poorly understood the large-scale severe weather outbreaks are in this area. And they don't always have to be so large in scale.

Looking back to April of 1966, when an EF-4 tornado raked across the state from Pinellas County to Brevard County, taking about 11 lives in the process and millions of dollars of property losses, it was not an especially impressive system, if I am recalling it accurately. But clearly there was something in the dynamics that set up over Central Florida on that day which caused such a destructive system to form. My guess is that the helicity was likely the poorly understood factor in that case. The forecast for that day did not indicate a severe weather risk, I believe.

Now one may think that this is understandable in that it was 1966 and so much less was known about the specifics of atmospheric phenomena back then in comparison with today. I would agree with that, in a general sense. On the other hand, when it comes to our little neck of the woods, there is still much yet to learn, I strongly suspect.

One more thing... Imagine if the events of April 4, 1966 were to take place again, in precisely the same area! The devastation from what would be a relatively isolated outbreak could be catastrophic in scale, given the changes in population that have occurred here since then. That storm passed right over the USF campus, for instance.

Food for thought?

Multi TS warnings near Lufkin now

12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.

Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She has an AMS seal of approval.

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1046 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.

Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

Quoting jeffs713:

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "

I'm not saying it makes her a great forecaster, but clearly she is at least a capable one. I just don't like how many of us who are not professionals (and if you are I apologize) are calling her out when we have no right to.

12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:

Quoting Tribucanes:
Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?

Really? My "choice of targets" was the discussion already happening on the blog. If the person brought up was another met without a degree that was male, I'd be criticizing them, too.

I've been judged by just a few facts many times. And I didn't enjoy it, either. That said, I'm making a PERSONAL judgement based on the facts available to me. If you have something disputing those facts, show them. I'd love to see them and be proven wrong.

If you are trying to troll me, congrats, you got me riled up. Not because you are calling me out, per se, but because you are accusing me of being sexist, which could not be further from the mark. Criticizing what I have to say is one thing, and is something you are entitled to. Criticizing me as a person is another thing entirely, and crosses a line at which I take great offense.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:

I'm just glad we're finally going to get some good rain up here out of this storm.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

That must be ahead of the front from the SW flow we have been having coming off the warm gulf.

Storms are really increasing across Texas!

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.

I agree, that is what I am thinking will happen. I also stick with that rainfall has the potential to be quite a bit higher in some spots than the models are expecting. I say this mainly because actual PWAT's and dew points frequently exceed model out puts in Central and South Florida for rain events. Of course it takes a lot more for heavy rain than just high moisture, which will ultimately depend on the evolution of our Low.

But still, that's why I mention potential. We rarely get uniform QPF in Florida rainfall events even with low pressure systems. Generally some places get less than expected while others end up getting much more. Its due to the fact that models have a hard time forecasting the influences of low level features which dominate weather the further you get into the tropics. There are frequently low level, localized features that affect weather events in Florida that often go completely unnoticed by models. Its just really hard to integrate that sort of data. Weather forecasting here is very intense because of its difficulty, which also makes it so exciting :)

Come tonight and morning the situ will show itself as we can see some signs already in the Mid Gulf.

Note the frontal storms in Texas too.

3 km helicity map at 36 hours..NAM.. Helicity map in 84 hours..