Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

Share this Blog
26
+

Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 128 - 78

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

I personally feel the earlier models are right, Florida may get a bigger event then what is currently shown. I feel the low will cross North Florida rather then Central Florida.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-200430-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TRACK TOWARD THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOATERS ON INLAND
LAKES...RIVERS...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A WEATHER WATCH TO THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF...LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW PRIMED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME OVER FLORIDA FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
AFFECT THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS..THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY SATURDAY.

$$

BRAGAW




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting LargoFl:
...here is their briefing this morning.......................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-14 1>148-156>16 2-174-175-200900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WI SE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-B OSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN -FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF A COMANCHE...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO
PARIS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING NORTH
OF AN EASTLAND...TO JACKSBORO...TO PARIS LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A COMANCHE...TO
WAXAHACHIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

$$

That line the NWS describes for this afternoon is all west of the area you highlighted. Things will start kicking off in that area late tonight through tomorrow morning before pushing off to the SE.

When I read your post, my first thought was, "today? Nothing is going to happen there this afternoon..."
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Storms gathering to my west!


Its gonna hammer us good this afternoon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
oklahoma is getting it now, is this the Low headed for the gulf?.............................


Sounds like it might be.

Click for SPC Convective Outlook for Friday


...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND
INTO LA OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG JET
STREAK WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECTING ERN TX INTO LA AND
AR. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LAREDO TX TO CNTRL LA BY 00Z.

TO THE N...THE NRN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is some more phoney bolonga from the Drought Monitor.

This is Tiftin Ga.
Here is the stats for this year.
The Drought Monitor has them as an extreme drought.

Yeah right!

Choose weather station -

From:

To:


From Jan-1 To Apr-17 Total Precipitation
[in] Number of
Rainy Days
2012 2012 9.60 37
2011 2011 10.43 32


Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Where do you see showers? I see a dome of high pressure keeping the skies clear.
...here is their briefing this morning.......................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>16 2-174-175-200900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WI SE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-B OSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN -FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF A COMANCHE...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO
PARIS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING NORTH
OF AN EASTLAND...TO JACKSBORO...TO PARIS LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A COMANCHE...TO
WAXAHACHIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Day 1 Convective Outlook. Click image for discussion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this is the latest GFS run (I am not sure) the Gulf low is looking like a "low rider" on a more southern trajectory and headed in the direction of Central Florida then climbing up the Eastern Seaboard....Would be good news for sections of the mid-west which have been really hammered over the past several weeks.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like a summer morning by looking at the Tampa radar this morning.


Oh yes!! Long live the reverse summertime pattern...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for the link, piolet must haved passed out, unresponsive, probably flying on auto-pilot? before crashing into the gulf


I got this off the internet link for that channel. I was watching the 10A.M. news and the anchor said that the plane was flying in circles and A.F. planes were scrambled to find out what happened. Plane was headed for Sarasota Fla. from Slidell La.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Where do you see showers? I see a dome of high pressure keeping the skies clear.
thats what the NWS said about this afternoon there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Correct on Dennis Phillips fb page he said how the low hasn't even formed yet and could make a huge difference if it tracks north we have a higher chance of seeing severe weather and if it tracks south we have a lesser chance. Regardless the entire bay area is up for a good soaking of 1-2 inches.


HPC is saying 3" plus with some localized totals of 6". Could be some flooding problems as the ground is very dry and won't be able to soak up that much rain that fast.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
oklahoma is getting it now, is this the Low headed for the gulf?.............................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like northern texas might get some afternoon showers........................................

Where do you see showers? I see a dome of high pressure keeping the skies clear.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting PedleyCA:
Link

There is a small plane down in the GOM off the FL Panhandle.
thanks for the link, piolet must haved passed out, unresponsive, probably flying on auto-pilot? before crashing into the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing how on tv weatherperson is saying that it doesnt look all that bad afterall..gee the low hasnt even formed yet,folks will be letting down their guard listening to this guy
Correct on Dennis Phillips fb page he said how the low hasn't even formed yet and could make a huge difference if it tracks north we have a higher chance of seeing severe weather and if it tracks south we have a lesser chance. Regardless the entire bay area is up for a good soaking of 1-2 inches.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It feels like as when I was on my lunch you can really feel the humidity today.

havent seen the sun all day long here, steady overcast, and raining off and on..really soaking in nice.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting LargoFl:
there's some coming towards you now, should be there shortly


It feels like it as when I was on my lunch break you can really feel the humidity today.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
looks like northern texas might get some afternoon showers........................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looking more like a heavy flooding rain event as the low is now expected to cross C FL. Could be some severe especially on Sunday with damaging hail possibly accumlating on the ground as a very cold poket aloft comes overhead.
amazing how on tv weatherperson is saying that it doesnt look all that bad afterall..gee the low hasnt even formed yet,folks will be letting down their guard listening to this guy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Storms gathering to my west!

there's some coming towards you now, should be there shortly
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Link

There is a small plane down in the GOM off the FL Panhandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Because it fell into the back blogs too soon after posting...
601 Patrap:: USGS Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park
Purpose: To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park's namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
Glacier National Park's namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park's establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park's glaciers continues, with the park's glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1246 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLZ050-051-191730-
HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
1246 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

...HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT...PINELLAS AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLEARWATER BEACH TO
FORT DESOTO PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
CLEARWATER TO FORT DESOTO PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BELLEAIR BEACH...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...INDIAN SHORES...CLEARWATER
BEACH...LARGO...TOWN N COUNTRY...CLEARWATER...AND TAMPA...UNTIL 130
PM EDT.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 2806 8283 2815 8254 2781 8248 2781 8250
2783 8254 2796 8256 2799 8267 2794 8271
2788 8258 2773 8261 2769 8254 2776 8246
2768 8244 2765 8255 2773 8261 2763 8266
2759 8278 2772 8275 2786 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 249DEG 11KT 2797 8284 2764 8279

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Storms gathering to my west!

rainng pretty good here now, this is great
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Storms gathering to my west!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Later all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Testing

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water Restrictions are starting back up around here, we just got out of them a few weeks ago but bone dry weather here since Middle of March and the Lakes being less than half full is starting Drought thing over again. http://blogs.kxan.com/2012/04/18/falling-aquifer-l evel-triggers-san-marcos-restrictions/

After going thru last year I hate going a month or 2 without rain. East Texas will be OK going into Summer but the Western 2/3's of Texas looks like drought conditions again unless tropical systems move in or we get Heavy Rains in May which is possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.


Yes, but not working at this time.

The WMO Region IV Plan has a list of all the regional weather office's internet address, which should lead you to their radar if they have one. Starts on page 95.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11087
Quoting stormpetrol:


Its should be in operation for the 2013 hurricane season, the platform is already constructed from my understanding.

OK, thanks for the update stormpetrol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes! Come on Alberto. Come to the south. Be like a mild mannered mix of the '94 Alberto and the '06 Alberto. Team Alberto 2012! I'll be printing up bumper stickers soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Cayman Radar info.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
... Torrential rains with a few embedded thunderstorms will affect
Pinellas and southwestern Hillsborough counties...

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a line of heavy
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Honeymoon Island to 16 miles
west of Egmont Key... or along a line extending from 9 miles west of
Dunedin to 18 miles west of fort DeSoto Park... moving east at 15
mph. These showers will affect Honeymoon Island... Caladesi
Island... Belleair Beach... Clearwater Beach... Clearwater... Indian
Shores... Saint Petersburg... Pinellas Park... and Dunedin... until
1245 PM EDT.

When driving through heavy rain... slow down. Always leave a safe
distance between you and other vehicles.

Almost forgot what thunder sounded like.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting nigel20:

No, i'm not sure whats the latest with the Cayman radar


Its should be in operation for the 2013 hurricane season, the platform is already constructed from my understanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.


Looking more like a heavy flooding rain event as the low is now expected to cross C FL. Could be some severe especially on Sunday with damaging hail possibly accumlating on the ground as a very cold poket aloft comes overhead.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
817 am CDT Thursday Apr 19 2012


Short term...


Anticipate quiet weather for the next 36 hours with near normal
temperatures. On Friday...as ridging builds over the Great
Basin...an upper trough begins developing over the Great Plains. By
Friday evening...the trough will be over East Texas. Surface low
pressure will be over the Great Lakes with a cold front to the
Texas coast. This will allow moisture to increase...with chances
for precipitation to increase after midnight Friday night.


Model solutions have come around to a common solution of an upper low closing off over the western Gulf Saturday morning and be situated about 200 miles south of New Orleans by Saturday evening.

This is considerably south of solutions from 24 hours ago. This will also keep the surface low well off the coast...and will have the effect of keeping most of the precipitation offshore as well.



Will lower precipitation chances somewhat to the chance
range...and if MOS guidance is any indication...we may still be a
little too high on probability of precipitation. As the gradient tightens...breezy to
windy conditions will spread from south to north Saturday night.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Heavy rain coming onshore

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
ready.gov adds SPACE WEATHER

In order to protect people and systems that might be at risk from space weather effects, we need to understand the causes of space weather.

The sun is the main source of space weather. Sudden bursts of plasma and magnetic field structures from the sun's atmosphere called coronal mass ejections (CME) together with sudden bursts of radiation, or solar flares, all cause space weather effects here on Earth.

Space weather can produce electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, and even causing wide-spread blackouts. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning, intelligence gathering, and weather forecasting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.

You're welcome TWpr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
>
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Any news on the Cayman radar?

No, i'm not sure whats the latest with the Cayman radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 128 - 78

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
82 °F
Overcast