Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

+26

Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.

Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)

This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.

Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)

At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms

Categories: Hurricane Drought

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301. GeoffreyWPB 1:38 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting caneswatch: A fine example of winning! And another suggestion…Posting paragraph, after paragraph, after paragraph of a copy and paste, and then highlighting one sentence in bold…Just post the bold and a corresponding link. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

302. aspectre 1:39 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
272 wxmod: Asia's largest solar park functional in Gujarat state 283 RTSplayer: Seem's like they are...losing about half their area on access paths. Nope. Rann of Kuth is at ~24.1degreesNorth. The Earth's axial tilt is ~23.4degrees. From the short shadows on the picture, one could deduce that the picture was taken near-noon nearSummerSolstice: ie near the Sun's highest angle above Rann of Kuth. The solar panels have to be separated for the lowest solar-noon Sun-angle on the WinterSolstice so that the more southern panels won't shade the more northern panels. Such overlap shading would reduce overall efficiency, and cause excess stress on any givenpanel because of the differences in heat expansion between the shaded and unshaded portions Besides, the site was chosen because it's wasteland. It ain't as if they coulda grown crops insteada wasting the land on aisle space. Except those in the southernmost row. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

303. Grothar 1:42 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: And another suggestion…Posting paragraph, after paragraph, after paragraph* of a copy and paste, and then highlighting one sentence in bold…Just post the bold and a corresponding link.* Writing 'multiple paragraphs' would suffice. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

304. GeoffreyWPB 1:45 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Writing 'multiple paragraphs' would suffice. I like being demonstrative. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

305. Grothar 1:48 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I like being demonstrative. You're OK,Geoff! Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

306. GeoffreyWPB 1:59 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: You're OK,Geoff! Thank you Gro. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

307. pottery 2:02 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
What is this? Some kind of Self Worth Society? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

308. pottery 2:04 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Excuse my Bad Manners, please! Good evening. :):)) Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

309. GeoffreyWPB 2:04 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: What is this? Some kind of Self Worth Society? You are a member. We all respect you. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

310. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:05 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. Just sayin'. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

311. pottery 2:05 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Copious quantities of convection here today. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

312. pottery 2:06 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. Just sayin'. Why?? We never change..... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

313. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:06 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Global Warming & 173 Climate Change Myths Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says. Click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted by taxonomy, by popularity, in a print-friendly version, with short URLs or with fixed numbers you can use for permanent references. http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5131

314. pottery 2:07 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: You are a member. We all respect you. LOL to that. Good to see you! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

315. aspectre 2:07 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
310 TropicalAnalystwx13: Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. The forum program don' like my looks... any of 'em. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

316. pottery 2:09 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting aspectre: The forum program don' like my looks. Well, judging from your avatar, you are sort of nondescript.. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

317. Grothar 2:15 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. Just sayin'. Why? I look the same as I did 50 years ago. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

318. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:19 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Why? I look the same as I did 50 years ago. Hey, I have a question Gro. Did you ever get to meet Christopher Columbus? Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315

319. aspectre 2:21 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
316 pottery: Well, judging from your avatar, you are sort of nondescript... Ninja training. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

320. Hurricanes101 2:22 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Hey, I have a question Gro. Did you ever get to meet Christopher Columbus? Or better yet How heavy were the Stone Tablets you were bringing to Moses? Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

321. pottery 2:25 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting aspectre: 316 pottery: Well, judging from your avatar, you are sort of nondescript... Ninja training. Brilliant! There was a post the other night talking about La Ninja causing this strange weather down here. I thought it was a great typo. Made me spill my beverage.. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

322. MahFL 2:25 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting wxmod: http://india.nydailynews.com/newsarticle/4f8ffff4 846a56db58000000/asia-s-largest-solar-park-functio nal-in-gujarat-state How well does it work during the monsoon season ? Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430

323. Grothar 2:26 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Hey, I have a question Gro. Did you ever get to meet Christopher Columbus? No, he was sailing West and we were going East. Remember, the Vikings beat him by about 500 years. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

324. GeoffreyWPB 2:27 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
--- Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

325. pottery 2:27 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting MahFL: How well does it work during the monsoon season ? Probably not very well, I would imagine. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

326. pottery 2:29 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: He broke the champagne bottle on the Nina, Maria* and Santa Maria.* "Pinta", surely? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

327. Grothar 2:29 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes101: Or better yet How heavy were the Stone Tablets you were bringing to Moses? About 2 1/2 ephahs, I think. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

328. hahaguy 2:31 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. Just sayin'. I don't like change! Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

329. GeoffreyWPB 2:31 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: "Pinta", surely? Correct. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

330. pottery 2:34 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: About 2 1/2 ephahs, I think. What happened to the other 1/2 of the elephant.... Oh, sorry.. It's me eyes, yer know...... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

331. Hurricanes101 2:38 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: What happened to the other 1/2 of the elephant.... Oh, sorry.. It's me eyes, yer know...... Have you ever seen Grothars wardrobe? Thats where the other half went Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

332. Grothar 2:39 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Some of you should change your profile pictures sometimes. Just sayin'. Here, you happy now??? This was just taken a few years ago. Well, about 42 years ago actually. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

333. nigel20 2:40 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: Copious quantities of convection here today. Whats up pottery? Rain interupted what could of been an exciting final day in the series between West Indies and Australia, but that's how it is Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

334. Jedkins01 2:40 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: About 2 1/2 ephahs, I think. How many cubits in length and width? BTW, what did you think of Aaron? I always have a feeling he got a little jealous of Moses, you would know, you guys used to hang out under the terebinth tree dreaming of the promised land from what I hear... Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

335. pottery 2:41 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Here, you happy now??? This was just taken a few years ago. Well, about 42 years ago actually. You haven't changed a bit. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

336. Grothar 2:41 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Nothing yet Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

337. Grothar 2:44 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: You haven't changed a bit. Thanks, pott. A true gentleman you are. (You should see my mirror though) Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

338. WxGeekVA 2:44 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Nothing yet IS THST A PINEHOLE EYE NEAR MIAMI!?!?! SARCASM FLAG: WAY ON Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

339. pottery 2:44 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Whats up pottery? Rain interupted what could of been an exciting final day in the series between West Indies and Australia, but that's how it is It was strange that they had any play at all in POS. It poured down here in central T&T. Looked like Sammy was going to take them on. If he and Bravo and Chanders got going....... We had a chance. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

340. FLWeatherFreak91 2:44 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will redevelop during the early morning hours in the eastern Gulf as a small pulse of energy moves out of the central gulf. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

341. StormTracker2K 2:46 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Locally 6" of rain this weekend across C FL with widespread 3" plus. Record for orlando for April is just over 9" for the month so this gives you a indication just how big of an event this will be this weekend as April is typically very dry. NWS mets along with local mets are saying some of the higher totals may come very fast with training storms coming in from the Gulf. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

342. Tazmanian 2:48 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
all the mod runs did vary vary poor with 91L they all showed Alberto and look what 91L did it went POOF Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

343. StormTracker2K 2:49 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will redevelop during the early morning hours in the eastern Gulf as a small pulse of energy moves out of the central gulf. Yeah lightning flashing here off in the distance. At my work today no rain but at my house in NW Orange County I got .42" today on top of rain I got last night. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

344. nigel20 2:50 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting pottery: It was strange that they had any play at all in POS. It poured down here in central T&T. Looked like Sammy was going to take them on. If he and Bravo and Chanders got going....... We had a chance. Sammy should bat up the order more often and lead from the front. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

345. Hurricanes101 2:51 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian: all the mod runs did vary vary poor with 91L they all showed Alberto and look what 91L did it went POOF most of the ones I saw showed a deepening non-tropical core low, which is what happened, which has since weakened Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

346. Jedkins01 2:52 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will redevelop during the early morning hours in the eastern Gulf as a small pulse of energy moves out of the central gulf. Yep, and because there is still a weak front washing out there, we also have a favorable environment now for convection being there is lots of moisture now in place and the lid of high pressure has been removed. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

347. pottery 2:53 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Sammy should bat up the order more often and lead from the front. He needs to be more aggressive as a Skipper too. Plus, we need a new opening bat. Or 2 !! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

348. Jedkins01 2:53 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: Yeah lightning flashing here off in the distance. At my work today no rain but at my house in NW Orange County I got .42" today on top of rain I got last night. We had a decent amount of rain over in Pinellas County today. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

349. StormTracker2K 2:55 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: Yep, and because there is still a weak front washing out there, we also have a favorable environment now for convection being there is lots of moisture now in place and the lid of high pressure has been removed. Just wait and see what happens once this upper energy moves into this moist unstable enviroment. There are going to be some serious rainfall totals from this system across C FL. Look at the GFS and you can see the track of the low. GFS Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

350. StormTracker2K 2:59 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: We had a decent amount of rain over in Pinellas County today. Hey by the way that 5 to 9 inch rain event you got last year was in March (end of March) not april:) Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

351. Jedkins01 2:59 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: Locally 6" of rain this weekend across C FL with widespread 3" plus. Record for orlando for April is just over 9" for the month so this gives you a indication just how big of an event this will be this weekend as April is typically very dry. NWS mets along with local mets are saying some of the higher totals may come very fast with training storms coming in from the Gulf. Heaviest rain from low pressure events coming from the gulf tend to lign up around my area I've noticed, hopefully that will be the case this time as well :) Most likely its because thick cloudiness from low pressure systems limit instability over land but the warmer gulf waters with a strong breeze allows for a continual energy source. We can get massive rain evens here on the West Coast of Florida from lows in the gulf sometimes. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

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