Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

Share this Blog
26
+

Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 278 - 228

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Quoting LargoFl:
I wonder how the Alaska fisheries are doing with all this, I hope they are cheking each and every batch that comes in for radioactivity


No, there are not doing it..... most countries and business are being more "flexible" by admiting higher radiation levels on food... Economics... Radiation effect being hidden or not talked about, even in West Conus.... For me it would be a mandatory need to have a G. Counter and check out food and water before buying it... specially anything that grows in the Pacific area....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Barometer Bob Show this week April 19, 2012
My guest will be Kendra Reed from KDR Media. We will discuss what she does to get the video and pictures from the Storm Chasers to the networks.

The shows on now, started at 8PM/7C.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Landsat Shows West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams

Source: University of Texas at Austin
Posted: April 19, 2012

A new study examining nearly 40 years of satellite imagery has revealed that the floating ice shelves of a critical portion of West Antarctica are steadily losing their grip on adjacent bay walls, potentially amplifying an already accelerating loss of ice to the sea.
...
The UTIG team found that the largest relative glacier accelerations occurred within and upstream of the increasingly rifted margins.

The observed style of slow-but-steady disintegration along ice-shelf margins has been neglected in most computer models of this critical region of West Antarctica, partly because it involves fracture, but also because no comprehensive record of this pattern existed. The authors conclude that several rifts present in the ice shelves suggest that they are poised to shrink further.

This research is sponsored in part by the National Science Foundation.

The article, titled "Widespread rifting and retreat of ice-shelf margins in the eastern Amundsen Sea Embayment between 1972 and 2011", appears in issue #209 of Journal of Glaciology.

http://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/news-archive/sc i_0039.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
275. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
I wonder how the Alaska fisheries are doing with all this, I hope they are cheking each and every batch that comes in for radioactivity


Yea right. You expect a lot from fellow men. Buy a giger counter and carry it into the store!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
999
WUUS54 KSJT 192352
SVRSJT
TXC207-447-200015-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0041.120419T2352Z-120420T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 650 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THROCKMORTON...
MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 9915 3324 9959 3341 9955 3341 9939
3340 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 260DEG 16KT 3337 9941

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WWUS40 KWNS 192338
WWP3

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

WS 0183
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU3.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


What are they saying?



They were basically discussing why it will be a tricky forecast, and that even though models have backed off the severe threat quite a bit the setup doesn't even exist yet so its hard to be sure on model placement, which is why it needs to be monitored closely because it can't be ruled out that the more severe setup will still occur, however its looking like the severe weather threat has decreased some, at least for now. Like they said, we must watch it closely, but at least the model are heading in the right direction. Also if the low pressure system does track across the bay area, right to the east of the low is typically where the most solid and heavy precip tends to setup, so if current model trends hold it would be good for us in that less severe would occur but potentially the rainfall amounts could be higher too, we shall see.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Popocatepetl Volcano Raising Concerns in Mexico

volcano is expected to erupt this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.

I would say C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Link?



Sorry its over now lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
I've been watching a great live stream discussion between local MET Denis Phillips of ABC news 11 and a MET from the NWS about the upcoming system.


Link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
I've been watching a great live stream discussion between local MET Denis Phillips of ABC news 11 and a MET from the NWS about the upcoming system.


What are they saying?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been watching a great live stream discussion between local MET Denis Phillips of ABC news 11 and a MET from the NWS about the upcoming system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
R.I.P. Levon Helm

Up On Cripple Creek


The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL / CNTRL / SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192310Z - 200115Z

THE AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WW --ALBEIT DELAYED UNTIL THE CAP IS BREACHED
AND SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY /00-03Z TIMEFRAME/.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW SERVING AS A TRIPLE
POINT-LIKE FEATURE 30 MI WNW SPS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY. A WINDSHIFT/WEAK COOL FRONT
EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE APPRECIABLE
FRONTAL SEGMENT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION --HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR-- AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACCAS FIELD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...MAKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE PROBABLE AS THIS
CONVECTION DEEPENS WITHIN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND CINH WEAKENS
FURTHER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VEERING
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50 KTS AT 5KM AGL AT KFDR VAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE A
CONGLOMERATION OF SCTD STORMS/COLD POOLS FAVORS A MIXED MODE BY LATE
EVENING. DESPITE SUPERCELL SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO SUNSET AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
--INCREASING TOWARDS DUSK AND THEREAFTER -- WILL LARGELY
LIMIT/NEGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..SMITH.. 04/19/2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Just a suggestion Largo...Tighten up your posts. Just the important highlights and a link. Trust me, this will be greatly appreciated when hurricane season begins.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Here's something that'll warm your heart
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BARATARIA BAY, La. (AP) - Open sores. Parasitic infections. Chewed-up-looking fins. Gashes. Mysterious black streaks. Two years after the drilling-rig explosion that touched off the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history, scientists are beginning to suspect that fish in the Gulf of Mexico are suffering the effects of the petroleum.

The evidence is nowhere near conclusive. But if those suspicions prove correct, it could mean that the environmental damage to the Gulf from the BP disaster is still unfolding and the picture isn't as rosy as it might have seemed just a year ago.

And the damage may extend well beyond fish. In the past year, research has emerged showing deep-water coral, seaweed beds, dolphins, mangroves and other species of plants and animals are suffering.

"There is lots of circumstantial evidence that something is still awry," said Christopher D'Elia, dean of Louisiana State University's School of the Coast and Environment. "On the whole, it is not as much environmental damage as originally projected. Doesn't mean there is none."

Reports of strange things with fish began emerging when fishermen returned to the Gulf weeks after BP's gushing oil well was capped during the summer of 2010. They started catching grouper and red snapper with large open sores and strange black streaks, lesions they said they had never seen. They promptly blamed the spill.

The illnesses are not believed to pose any health threat to humans. But the problems could be devastating to some prized types of fish and to the people who make their living catching them.

There's no saying for sure what's causing the diseases in what is still a relatively small percentage of the fish. The Gulf is assaulted with all kinds of contaminants every day. Moreover, scientists have no baseline data on sick fish in the Gulf from before the spill. The first comprehensive research may be years from publication.

Still, it's clear to fishermen and researchers alike that something's amiss.

-- A recent batch of test results revealed the presence of oil in the bile extracted from fish caught in August 2011, nearly 15 months after the well blew out on April 20, 2010, in a disaster that killed 11 men.

"Bile tells you what a fish's last meal was," said Steve Murawski, a marine biologist with the University of South Florida and former chief science adviser for the National Marine Fisheries Service. "There was as late as August of last year an oil source out there that some of those animals were consuming."

Bile in red snapper, yellow-edge grouper and a few other species contained on average 125 parts per million of naphthalene, a compound in crude oil, Murawski said. Scientists expect to find almost none of the substance in fish captured in the open ocean.

-- Last summer, a federally funded team of scientists conducted what experts say is the most extensive study yet of sick fish in shallow and deep Gulf waters. Over seven cruises in July and August, the scientists caught about 4,000 fish, from Florida's Dry Tortugas to Louisiana.

About 3 percent of the fish had gashes, ulcers and parasites symptomatic of environmental contamination, according to Murawski, the lead researcher. The number of sick fish rose as scientists moved west away from the relatively clean waters of Florida, and also as they pushed into deeper waters off Alabama, Mississippi and especially Louisiana, near where the Deepwater Horizon rig sank.

About 10 percent of mud-dwelling tile fish caught in the DeSoto Canyon, to the northeast of the well, showed signs of sickness.

"The closer to the oil rig, the higher the frequency was" of sick fish, Murawski said.

Past studies off the Atlantic Seaboard found about 1 percent of fish suffering from diseases, Murawski said. But he said that figure cannot really be used for comparisons with the Gulf, whose warmer waters serve as an incubator for bacteria and parasites that can cause lesions and other illnesses.

-- Laboratory work over the past winter on the USF samples indicates the immune systems of the fish were impaired by an unknown environmental stress or contamination. Other researchers say they have come to similar conclusions.

"Some of the things I've seen over the past year or so I've never seen before," said Will Patterson, a marine biologist at the University of South Alabama and at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab. "Things like fin rot, large open sores on fish, those were some of the more disturbing types of things we saw. Different changes in pigment, red snapper with large black streaks on them."

Teasing out what might have been caused by the spill and what is normal will be tricky, and that's the challenge scientists now face. Deformities, diseases and sudden shifts in fish numbers are regular occurrences in nature. For example, scientists are not sure what to make of reports from fishermen of eyeless or otherwise deformed shrimp and crabs.

"I've heard everything but shrimp with two heads," said Jerald Horst, a marine


Read more: http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/state/2-year s-later-fish-sick-near-bp-oil-spill-site#ixzz1sWuf vWJ6
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41624
ATCF Update...
33.9n58.5w 32.7n59.2w 31.9n59.0w 31.3n58.2w 31.0n57.4w 30.7n56.8w 30.3n56.3w 29.6n55.5w
91L is continuing to head SouthEastward, and the previous update's prediction models are way off

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- FPO is GrandBahama -- BDA is Bermuda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
R.I.P. Levon Helm

Up On Cripple Creek
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so excited...just bought GREarth.

This is as bad as it gets for Florida according to the NAM12...which isn't bad at all.



In terms of south florida broward/dade counties here at the wfo we continue watching models which have been converging on a squall line for late Sat night. Although severe risk Saturday as well with possible cells developing during the day. We'll see if this holds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

Lucky! You must be filthy rich to be able to buy all these pricey programs. I would be lucky if I end up getting GR2Analyst anytime soon.

Nah, I've had GR2Analyst since 2010 and finally purchased GREarth today.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690

... Slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of south
Texas Friday...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and early evening over south Texas... as a strong cold front moves
into the area. The cold front is expected to move through San
Antonio around noon... reaching the coast around 6 PM. A line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front.
Some storms could be severe... producing large hail and damaging
straight-line winds... especially across the northeastern portions
of south Texas.

At this time... the primary concern for severe weather is generally
near... north and east of a line from near Chapman Ranch... to
Alice... to Tilden to cross. The atmosphere is forecast to be very
unstable over the region as the front moves through. However... a
strong cap may limit storm development along the southern line in
the Corpus Christi area.

Because of the fast movement of this system... no excessive
rainfall or flooding is expected. Rainfall totals will average
from one tenth of an inch or less over the brush country and near
Laredo... to around 1/2 inch along the coast between Corpus Christi
and Port Lavaca. Isolated amounts around 1 inch are also possible
especially along the coast.

Windy conditions will develop across south Texas in the wake of
the front Friday night and Saturday... as much cooler air filters
into the region. Northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
mph can be expected... especially along coastal areas. The
combination of strong winds and low humidity values will result in
elevated fire weather conditions on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are also expected for the bays and Gulf waters... with
gusts near gale force possible over the offshore Gulf waters.

Residents and mariners should begin preparing for developing
weather situation. Keep informed on the latest forecasts from the
National Weather Service. Keep informed on possible watches or
warnings by listening to NOAA Weather Radio... commercial radio or
television. You can also visit our website at...

Www.Weather.Gov/corpuschristi

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41624
Humans Behind Strongest Oklahoma Quake Ever Recorded, Research Suggests

"Instead of extracting materials from inside the Earth, the Oklahoma wells in question are designed to deliver fluids down into it. Fluid injection is used to get rid of industrial wastewater that might contaminate drinking water if it were disposed of at the surface, or to ease oil along through fractures in the Earth to a spot that is more accessible."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee i hoe WE dont get these 60mph winds here on the west coast tomorrow...................................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
629 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLC107-109-192300-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120419T2300Z/
PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
629 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL ST. JOHNS AND NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF BOSTWICK TO
BOSTWICK TO CARRAWAY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HASTINGS TO 9 MILES NORTH OF PALATKA TO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOSTWICK AND HASTINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2967 8176 2976 8188 2984 8179 2984 8164
2985 8151 2971 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 282DEG 12KT 2986 8165 2977 8167
2976 8178

$$

ENYEDI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41624
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Early today Doc!

Some areas of C & S FL could get 6" of rain from this event. The great news is that the severe wx threat is lower now due to a track further in the Gulf. This has the potential to bring record breaking rains to some areas in FL has these events are very rare in April. This will be like a tropical system moving in.



These events aren't actually that rare in April even though it is the dry season. Often during this time of year in the Spring most of the rain for the whole month will come from one big rain event.

We had more impressive frontal events than this will probably be many times before including last Spring. In late April last year a severe outbreak produced several tornadoes around Tampa Bay and between 5 and 9 inches around this area. While I think this system will bring a good soaking rain, I don't think we will see an outbreak of tornadoes or 9 inches of rain. This will just be one of the bigger systems we normally get every Spring. We have been well below normal for months even for the dry season so its about time we get some action.


Now if we had a major tornado outbreak including strong tornadoes of F2 or greater, widespread squall line winds at 65 to 75 mph, and golf ball size hail, that would be a rare event. That is rare. We have had those before but they are quite rare, such events are more common in the plains where frontal systems typically are much stronger.


In fact generally speaking, even "strong" frontal systems in Florida that produce severe weather in Florida are weaker than their plains counter parts during the Spring. The reason we can occasionally get severe outbreaks here is usually due to strong surface support like high surface instability and very high moisture and lots of thermal energy from a combination of stronger sun light and warmer waters in the gulf, which make up for the lack of strength in the actual system moving through. This makes severe weather harder to predict and thus moderate risks are higher are even more rare than actual severe events because issuing one requires higher confidence in the event actually happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so excited...just bought GREarth.

This is as bad as it gets for Florida according to the NAM12...which isn't bad at all.


Lucky! You must be filthy rich to be able to buy all these pricey programs. I would be lucky if I end up getting GR2Analyst anytime soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so excited...just bought GREarth.

This is as bad as it gets for Florida according to the NAM12...which isn't bad at all.



Certainly not a bad purchase... although can get kinda pricy for the single person users. Probably geared toward folks in decision support roles more. Just wait until a big storm outbreak or a tropical event, then you'll really be excited to have it.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3292
ATCF made a test invest 80L. Look at the track and intensity.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14757
This is what is left of 91L...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do we still have 91L?


That's an impressive area of convection in west Africa... I don't know if 91L still exists or not.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Do we still have 91L?

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLC019-107-192230-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-120419T2230Z/
CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL-
555 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2988 8196 2997 8192 2994 8169 2974 8184
2981 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 293DEG 9KT 2989 8189

$$

ENYEDI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41624
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup H.A.


Hey,

Nothing much going on. Thought hoping for some rain here in southern Florida.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
Quoting hurricanealley:
It's been a while since my last visit here.


Nice to see everyone again.

Wuzup H.A.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm so excited...just bought GREarth.

This is as bad as it gets for Florida according to the NAM12...which isn't bad at all.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting aspectre:
207 Patrap The Ego is an illusion. -- Buddha

If you meet the Buddha upon the road, Joe'sAutoBody can fix the dents. -- Sidheartist
I think you are right, but--Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.
- The Buddha ,,,,:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's been a while since my last visit here.


Nice to see everyone again.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
Re: #216 --- I'm so glad you posted that update, sunlinePR; I think it was yesterday, or the day before, that I mentioned here that I had a feeling Florida's dry weather wasn't going to change until all that constant rain in Puerto Rico switched off!

Here's hoping all that moisture is finding someplace else to go besides Puerto Rico...like, er, South Florida!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF THE MELDOWN ON SEA WATER THAT KEEPS CONTAMINATING THE PACIFIC... ALASKA, HAWAII AND W CONUS... (Considering only the US)

Scientists: First time radioactive silver detected in ocean — Radioactivity levels in seawater are not diminishing as hoped — “Reactor site still seems to be leaking; it hasn’t shut off”

http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?l= e&country=0&special=&monthyear=&da y=&id=50221&ndb= 1&df=0

Radioactive Tellurium-129m detected in seawater for first time — Short 34 day half-life indicates new leak

http://www.nti.org/search/?q=Radioactive+Telluriu m

Nature Study: Long-term plutonium dose assessment needed after Fukushima — Concerns about Americium-241 also — Deposition south of plant, not only northwest

http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/120308/srep00304/ full/srep00304.html

Highest yet: 3,355 times legal limit of radioactive iodine-131 found in seawater — Reactor cores may have been continuously leaking into Pacific

http://enenews.com/highest-3355-times-legal-limit -radioactive-iodine-131-found-seawater-reactor-cor es-continuously-leaking-pacific

BBC: 4,000 Bq/m3 of cesium detected in OCEAN water at least 30 km from Fukushima coast

I wonder how the Alaska fisheries are doing with all this, I hope they are cheking each and every batch that comes in for radioactivity
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41624
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
207 Patrap: The Ego is an illusion. -- Buddha

If you meet the Buddha upon the road, Joe'sAutoBody can fix the dents. -- Sidheartist
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF THE MELDOWN ON SEA WATER THAT KEEPS CONTAMINATING THE PACIFIC... ALASKA, HAWAII AND W CONUS... (Considering only the US)

Scientists: First time radioactive silver detected in ocean — Radioactivity levels in seawater are not diminishing as hoped — “Reactor site still seems to be leaking; it hasn’t shut off”

http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?l= e&country=0&special=&monthyear=&day=&id=50221&ndb= 1&df=0

Radioactive Tellurium-129m detected in seawater for first time — Short 34 day half-life indicates new leak

http://www.nti.org/search/?q=Radioactive+Telluriu m

Nature Study: Long-term plutonium dose assessment needed after Fukushima — Concerns about Americium-241 also — Deposition south of plant, not only northwest

http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/120308/srep00304/ full/srep00304.html

Highest yet: 3,355 times legal limit of radioactive iodine-131 found in seawater — Reactor cores may have been continuously leaking into Pacific

http://enenews.com/highest-3355-times-legal-limit -radioactive-iodine-131-found-seawater-reactor-cor es-continuously-leaking-pacific

BBC: 4,000 Bq/m3 of cesium detected in OCEAN water at least 30 km from Fukushima coast

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:
The news of Dick Clark ... now this.

Thanks for that.
It's very good. And so True!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24785
Quoting jeffs713:


Yeah... I was being a bit cranky.



My apologies for coming across cranky - it was out of line, and please accept my apology.

I'm sorry too sir. I should keep my opinions to myself. I'll promise never to wishcast again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I say D...late June to early July...

How come you think so late?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995

Viewing: 278 - 228

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
50 °F
Light Rain Mist