March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record
March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
I'll have a new post by Friday.
Jeff Masters
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Wishful thinking. :)
Remnant surface trough of 91L was removed from 1800Z TAFB on Sunday April 22. The dissipating remnant trough was tracking eastward at the time while steered by the south side of its parent upper low. 91L is long gone in other words...
While this was happening...the parent upper low produced yet another extratropical cyclone just to the north of dissipating 91L (which is what you remarked as the thing traveling northward from Bermuda's vicinity). That second extratropical cyclone could have easily been confused with 91L but was not 91L. What's left of that 2nd extratropical cyclone's cold front is a cloud-free surface trough in the central Atlantic as of the current TAFB analyses.
It was so much water that roads and highways caved in..it was predicted to come in at a cat 4 but weakened right before landfall to a 2..we were going to ride it out..looking back, I can say I was foolish to do so..
"The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview."
Strange that he left out the important influence of world-wide cow farting. :)
Yes you were, but hind sight is 20/20 vision
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
They're talking of the NorthPole*itself (and not the ArcticOcean as whole), so that wouldn't be a brand spanking new phenomenum.
Within recent years, an (or several) adventure-tourism "Expedition(s) to the NorthPole" failed because the ice had melted there and/or in an ocean area totally surrounding the NorthPole.
But before those recent "expedition"(s), the NorthPole had been solidly embedded in traversable sea-ice as far as back as anybody had checked.
* edited because I found a link to the story.
Today is Thursday 26th of April, (or will be shortly depending on where you are?)
Can you please clarify how the potent system will be about 48 hours from now on the 26th of April when its allready here?
Note:- You may have allready modified your comment by the time I posted this, if so apologies.
I meant in Central Daylight Time, and 48 hours out on the model run.
Should have clarified.
April 27 is a Friday :)
Ah the good old days, black and white TV. What would a modern Met do if they handed them that situation. Run screaming off the set. Too funny.
Wait...today is Wednesday?
0.o
I thought it was Tuesday!
Yes! In fact, it's almost Thursday!
I thought it was thursday till I read this haha
I'll be In early tomorrow, detention:( buenos noches.
It's gonna get hot heads up!!!
What'd you do to get detention?
Yep..
The whole North Pole thing is interesting, I have talked to submariners who have surfaced at the North Pole and say that there was no ice there only slushy stuff. They don't mean it isn't normally iced over, just that sometimes its ice free.
Thinking about it if the North Pole area and Arctic ice in general melts completely then there will be a great imbalance in the temps at the poles? With the South Pole area running well below freezing all of the year and the North Pole running well above freezing, ice free? Well we might just be in for a few weather surprises! Maybe. maybe not, of course.
The implications of an ice free Northern Arctic Ocean have not yet been contemplated in sufficient depth!!
I was just reading about that, while fruitlessly searching for something else, but that was pretty amazing.
September 16-17th, 1988 (Gilbert): The hurricane with the second lowest pressure ever recorded within the Western Hemisphere, Hurricane Gilbert tore across Jamaica with winds of 115 mph, before striking Cancun, Mexico as a strong category five with sustained winds estimated at 185 mph. To the right is an image of this hurricane on the 13th, provided by the National Climatic Data Center. As it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, its intensity never rose back above category three intensity. It is believed that significant dry air intrusion and cooler sea surface temperatures prevented Gilbert from restrengthening futher. Gilbert struck the coast of Mexico
on the 17th, before accelerating north and east into the Central Plains.
Even though Gilbert struck well south of the border, gusty winds and 29 tornadoes were seen with the system in Texas. The thirteen tornadoes that touched down in the San Antonio area caused $35 million of the damage. Gusts to 83 mph were measured near Brownsville. Although the heaviest rainfall from Gilbert fell south of the border in northeast Mexico, heavy rains fell along the Rio Grande valley past Del Rio, then across the Trans Pecos and Big Country regions of the state. Laredo set a daily rainfall record for the 16th (1.85"). South Padre Island was flooded by its storm surge. Three perished in San Antonio from tornadoes. Damages totaled $50 million.
It was much easier when we only had 13 states. Much less territory to cover. Glad you enjoyed it.
yeah, the SPC said they may have to add updates to the forecast for tomorrow
Good night stormpetrol
Una peste???? I can never keep up with where you are.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
PRC005-013-017-027-054-065-071-091-099-115-145-26 0345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0139.120426T0151Z-120426T0345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-FLORIDA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-MOCA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...FLORIDA...HATILLO...MANATI...MOCA... VEGA BAJA...
ARECIBO...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS
* UNTIL 1145 PM AST
* AT 946 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED EXPANDING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATE
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1145 PM AST.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS...
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1849 6691 1850 6678 1848 6674 1850 6660
1848 6646 1850 6640 1838 6642 1837 6656
1841 6678 1839 6709 1842 6717 1848 6718
1852 6714 1852 6710
$$
BCS
Thanks,Geek!
If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?
Guess were just going to have to place a weather buoy right there.
Read letters sent to:
US Ambassador to Japan Fujisaki
Link
Secretary of Energy Chu
Link
Secretary of State Clinton
Link
NRC Chairman Jaczko
Link
________________________________________
Gov’t Report: EPA’s ability to protect human health with RadNet was “potentially impaired” for Fukushima — Officials questioned why they were using “dramatically less strict” standards for radiation contamination
Audit Confirms EPA Radiation Monitors Broken During Fukushima Crisis
Source: Global Security Newswire | NTI
Author: Douglas P. Guarino
Date: Apr 23, 2012
Emphasis Added
An internal audit has confirmed observers’ concerns that many of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s radiation monitors were out of service at the height of the 2011 Fukushima power plant meltdown in Japan [...]
RadNet consists of 124 stations scattered throughout U.S. territories and 40 deployable air monitors that can be sent to take readings anywhere, according to the IG report. [...]
At the time of the Fukushima crisis, “this critical infrastructure asset” was impaired because many monitors were broken, while others had not undergone filter changes in so long that they could not be used to accurately detect real-time radiation levels, the IG report says.
“On March 11, 2011, at the time of the Japan nuclear incident, 25 of the 124 installed RadNet monitors, or 20 percent, were out of service for an average of 130 days,” the report says. “In addition, six of the 12 RadNet monitors we sampled (50 percent) had gone over eight weeks without a filter change, and two of those for over 300 days,” the report adds, noting that EPA policy calls on operators to change the filters twice per week.
Currently, “EPA remains behind schedule for installing” radiation monitors and has not resolved contracting issues identified as causing similar problems with the system in a 2009 audit, the report says. “Until EPA improves contractor oversight, the agency’s ability to use RadNet data to protect human health and the environment, and meet requirements established in the National Response Framework for Radiological Incidents, is potentially impaired.” [...]
EPA uses FDA standards
[I]n Hilo, Hawaii, EPA had detected radioactive iodine in milk at concentrations of 18 picocuries per liter, which is about six times greater than the agency’s maximum contaminant level of 3 picocuries per liter for the contaminant in drinking water. In Little Rock, Ark., the agency detected radioactive iodine in milk at concentrations of 8.9 picocuries per liter – about three times the regulatory level.
At the time, the agency defended its statements that the iodine levels were not a threat by noting that they were below emergency guidelines established by the U.S. Food and Drug administration. Documents the agency released under the Freedom of Information Act showed that some EPA officials, though, had questioned whether the FDA guidelines were appropriate given how dramatically less strict they were than the agency’s own enforceable regulations.
Taking Action
Advocacy groups – including the Natural Resources Defense Council, Physicians for Social Responsibility and Committee to Bridge the Gap – raised concerns about broken and out of service monitors in an August 2011 letter to the agency and during an October 2011 presentation to top EPA officials in Washington.
Daniel Hirsch, a nuclear policy lecturer at the University of California (Santa Cruz) and president of Committee to Bridge the Gap
The April 19 report by the EPA Inspector General’s Office also casts further doubt on the agency’s already controversial claims that radiation from Fukushima did not pose any public health threat on U.S. soil
The report “raises serious questions about bland assurances at the height of the Fukushima disaster that no radiation was reaching the U.S.”
“It also raises serious questions about whether EPA will be prepared if a nuclear incident occurs in the United States”
Hirsch asked whether the agency “views its job as providing reassurance or providing factual information”
If it's Tuesday, this must be Belgium. (Before your time, TA)
Estoy Aqui:-
En Andalucia.
Sometimes I have to go to other places, where there are inclement conditions and all sorts of undesirable background events going on but with the Freia de Abril in Sevila, the Motor GP in Jerez, and an unprecedented drought in the backyard, at least we have something to watch, whilst you are preparing for things of major atmospheric significance on the other side of the pillars of Hercules!
I saw the showers on radar, hopefully you'll have better conditions tomorrow
.
Sorry for the double post. I had a runaway cursor and it stretched my blog. Yes, I have been to a few places with undesirable background events, too. Luckily I have not traveled much lately. I have not been to Spain in many years. I don't think anyone who has not been there, know what a beautiful country it is.
Everybody agrees that the South one is safe for the moment at least, though Nea might dispute this later?
The North one is a bit of a problem but maybe some sort of gyroscopic, coriolis effect, aided by a few guy wires and a redundant Soviet geostationary submarine, would suffice until the onset of the next ice age!
Same to you pedley
Classic.
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