Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

+33

A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.

Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.

Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.

Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.

Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)

My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.

Categories: Tornado Severe Weather

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451. Grothar 1:55 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Hey, Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008 Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

452. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:58 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting hurricane23: Guess i'll throw in a few... Guess I'll throw in the one and only ultimate loop of Igor. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

453. stormpetrol 1:58 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

454. Ameister12 2:02 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Hey, Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008 Aww... Marco was very cute. =D Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

455. Tropicsweatherpr 2:05 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Not again. It looks like another round of rain for Puerto Rico next week. I say not again because so far in 2012,it has been above normal the rainfall. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 926 PM AST FRI APR 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LIFTS OVER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVERALL...VERY NICE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED SUN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROAD TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 28/16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. && .MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN INTO MINIMAL SCA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. SCEC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BOTH OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 86 77 81 / 0 10 20 30 STT 77 79 77 79 / 10 10 40 40 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

456. nigel20 2:08 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol: Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph! What's up storm petrol...did anyone from the NHC check the Anemometer that took that measurement? Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

457. Ameister12 2:09 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

458. Articuno 2:15 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: O_0 Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

459. nigel20 2:19 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quick question....what is the highest flight level winds measured by recon? Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

460. wpb 2:20 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
wug- first round pick , tropical tidbits Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

461. PedleyCA 2:26 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: Marco is the perfect size for an Avatar, no need to resize, lol. Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2139

462. nigel20 2:30 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

463. nigel20 2:35 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

464. JrWeathermanFL 2:36 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051

465. Tropicsweatherpr 2:38 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

466. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:38 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Cyclone Tip (largest on record) versus Cyclone Tracy (smallest on record before Marco). Amazing differences in size. :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

467. Ameister12 2:39 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL: Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

468. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:41 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco. Copier... :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

469. hurricanehunter27 2:43 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: I know today's already a total bust but we may have one last shot... A totally alone supercell over SW Kansas with some decent rotation... Maybe just maybe The storm is actually starting to organize quite well. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3463

470. Tropicsweatherpr 2:43 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151

471. nigel20 2:44 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5. Good number Twpr Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

472. Ameister12 2:46 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Copier... :P You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE the copier. :P Who even cares, back to weather. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

473. nigel20 2:55 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon. Yeah, it would allow steady warming of the MDR Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

474. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:56 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
What? There's a Severe Thunderstorm headed this way? It'll die out or miss me.. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

475. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:57 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE* the copier. :P* I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

476. Ameister12 3:00 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P Moving on...... >_> Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

477. Stormchaser2007 3:02 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: April 2012 really has been a let down in terms of tornado activity. I guess that is a good thing though, considering how active (understatement) last season was. I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

478. Ameister12 3:04 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007: I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year. Severe weather will probably heat up quite a bit in May. Should be a more typical severe weather season. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3516

479. KoritheMan 3:09 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429

480. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:20 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. We have May and then hurricane season to contend with. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

481. nigel20 3:23 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy. What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon? Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

482. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:27 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon? If I'm not mistaken, 228 mph in Gilbert. That could have been disproven though. If so, Isabel at 205 mph. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

483. hurricaneben 3:31 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Yeah I've got that feeling that while in total activity this hurricane season won't be very busy, we will have some major surprises headed our way--just wait. I call for some land mass to be hit hard, so don't underestimate this hurricane season just yet--just because they call for a relatively calm one in total storms. Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

484. nigel20 3:36 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: If I'm not mistaken, 228 mph in Gilbert. That could have been disproven though. If so, Isabel at 205 mph. OK, thanks much Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

485. KoritheMan 3:38 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon? No idea. I generally don't keep tabs on that sort of thing. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429

486. KoritheMan 3:38 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Don't count your chickens before they hatch. We have May and then hurricane season to contend with. I meant so far, obviously. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429

487. Stormchaser2007 3:41 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
REALLY excited about the 2012 HWRF upgrade coming in mid-May... Highly suggest reading the full doc here - Implement triple-nesting capability with a new centroid based nest movement algorithm - Configure the inner-most grid at cloud-resolving 3 km horizontal resolution with explicit representation of convective processes - Implementation of GFS Shallow Convection - Modifications to SAS deep convection, GFS PBL, GFDL surface physics and Ferrier microphysics parameterizations suitable for higher resolution and based on observational findings - Redesign of vortex initialization for 3 km resolution with improved interpolation algorithms and better representation of composite storm - Improved POM initialization in the Atlantic domain and new 1-D ocean coupling for Eastern Pacific basin - Upgrade the HWRF GSI to V3.5 and use of new Hybrid GSI/GFS for initial and boundary conditions once the Hybrid GSI/GFS has been implemented operationally - Improvements to HWRF Unified Post Processor to generate new SSM/I simulated microwave satellite imagery products *- Very high-resolution (every 5 sec.) storm tracker output to support National Hurricane Center (NHC) operations Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. Product Changes: The following elements will be added to the HWRF model output GRIB files: -simulated microwave satellite imagery products from SSM/I-S sensors Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments:** 15248

488. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:41 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

489. nigel20 3:48 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: No idea. I generally don't keep tabs on that sort of thing. No problem Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:48 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy. normal thats something we will never see again Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

491. NCHurricane2009 3:49 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
I have just issued a full tropical discussion hot-of-the-press. I don't expect the caribbean disturbance to develop...but just in case this changes I am going ahead and getting my bearings of the Atalntic Ocean dynamics... This is a new type of discussion I will be doing daily during the upcoming hurricane season. Feedback/questions/etc can help make it better...let me know by posting commments... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

492. PedleyCA 3:52 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Sup Keep, Slow Night.... Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2139

493. PedleyCA 3:59 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Well, Good Night All. Sleep Well and Stay Safe. SoCal Out..... Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2139

494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:00 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA: Sup Keep, Slow Night.... yeah its slow just came inside from checkin out how cold its outside my door and its frosty tonight 35 going down to 28 29 maybe Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

495. NCHurricane2009 4:00 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA: Sup Keep, Slow Night.... Well...I don't know if it is that slow. That Caribbean activity is making a lot of rain for many islands in the area. Nigel...how much rain have you gotten from this? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

496. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:01 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
good night PEDley Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

497. nigel20 4:13 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Well...I don't know if it is that slow. That Caribbean activity is making a lot of rain for many islands in the area. Nigel...how much rain have you gotten from this? 1/2 an inch measured in the Kingston area, but up to 2 inches measured in sections of Montego Bay Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

498. NCHurricane2009 4:29 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: 1/2 an inch measured in the Kingston area, but up to 2 inches measured in sections of Montego Bay Thanks for that...its great to have bloggers in the Caribbean as well...pretty awesome... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

499. nigel20 4:41 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Thanks for that...its great to have bloggers in the Caribbean as well...pretty awesome... No problem NCH2009 Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4516

500. Tazmanian 4:56 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
it most be that time of year LOL the gfs is forcastinf a hurricane N of PR Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

501. Orcasystems 5:02 AM GMT on April 28, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: yeah its slow just came inside from checkin out how cold its outside my door and its frosty tonight 35 going down to 28 29* maybe* :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

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