Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2012 +51
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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251. Grothar 9:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting seflagamma:


I think a lot of folks did that ...
I lurked for a few months before I first got a handle and posted...
goodness knows I am not shy at all..but everyone had warned me about all those "internet people" who will do bad things to you if you ever post on line. They will find out everything about you, etc etc etc..

Most of us were afraid to give out any personal information on the blogs...until we completed 2005 storms..then we loosened up a lot and in 2006 we started really socializing and getting to know each other on and off the blogs.
I have met some of the best people around here on WU.

Heck I am going to Destin in May to spend 3 days there with friends I met here in 2005!
This is our 7th year we've known each other!
Some meetings and a lot of phone calls in those years.



Yes, I have as well. I loved AwakeinMaryland. She was the sweetest woman. I have enjoyed speaking, corresponding and meeting some wonderful people on here. It is amazing how we are like old friends just by being on the blog.
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252. seflagamma 9:05 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have as well. I loved AwakeinMaryland. She was the sweetest woman. I have enjoyed speaking, corresponding and meeting some wonderful people on here. It is amazing how we are like old friends just by being on the blog.


you know a lot of the old timers here are now on Facebook.. most of them will come back when the season kicks in...but just easier to control who you are sharing information with there.. there are not really any "trolls" on FB unless you befriend them.

But I will never let FB replace my love for WU!

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253. hurricanehunter27 9:06 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
TA13 I don't have level 2 up right now but are you also seeing the couplet on the St.Louis cell?
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254. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:06 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow that storm just East of St. Louis is a nasty one.

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255. seflagamma 9:07 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
You are friends with that bunch on Ocra and Rob's blog.. that group is just too funny.

when I need a laugh I go to those blogs!
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256. hurricanehunter27 9:08 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I am really not liking the velocity on this one. I cant get GR2 up cause it keeps on popping up off screen.
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257. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:08 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
TA13 I don't have level 2 up right now but are you also seeing the couplet on the St.Louis cell?

I see very broad rotation.
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258. hurricanehunter27 9:10 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I see very broad rotation.
Wunder radar is showing 64+/26- right now is that what you are seeing?
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259. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:12 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wunder radar is showing 64+/26- right now is that what you are seeing?

I don't really see a couplet...just broad rotation.



The table on the left is Base Velocity, used to detect areas of strong winds. The table on the right is Storm Relative Velocity, used to detect tornado circulations. As you can see on the left, regardless of a tornado, O'Fallon is probably getting 40-50 knot winds right now.
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260. Patrap 9:14 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
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261. winter123 9:14 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

Any models picking up on the NW Caribbean blob? Shear is too high right now, but it reminds me of a typical late May pre-tropical storm.
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262. hurricanehunter27 9:14 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't really see a couplet...just broad rotation.



The table on the left is Base Velocity, used to detect areas of strong winds. The table on the right is Storm Relative Velocity, used to detect tornado circulations. As you can see on the left, regardless of a tornado, O'Fallon is probably getting 40-50 knot winds right now.
Yah the new frame finally came in and its much broader now.
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263. MAweatherboy1 9:14 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wunder radar is showing 64+/26- right now is that what you are seeing?

I'm not seeing anything too special on my GRLevel 3... very broad as TA 13 said
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264. Patrap 9:15 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    

829
WUUS53 KLSX 282112
SVRLSX
MOC007-019-027-282200-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0110.120428T2112Z-120428T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 409 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EASLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FULTON...MURRY...AUXVASSE...GUTHRIE...CARRINGTON.. .HATTON AND
KINGDOM CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 3917 9188 3877 9172 3875 9240 3876 9241
3878 9238 3881 9238 3882 9239 3882 9242
3897 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 258DEG 33KT 3886 9228

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50 MPH



KANOFSKY

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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265. bappit 9:17 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


What a friend of mine at the NHC later told me, was that there had been a number of vorticies within the eye that did not show up on radar. They were like little tornadoes. That is why this hurricane was unlike any other I had experienced. I have been through worse, it is just that these winds were weird.

Vortices in the eye wall apparently are not all that uncommon. Here's a paper on Isabel's mesovortices.

Edit: also see Meso- and Miso-scale structures in the eye and eyewall

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266. MAweatherboy1 9:17 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
I'm not liking the looks of that storm on the Indiana/ Illinois border...
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267. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:19 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
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268. hurricanehunter27 9:22 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
e>
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm not liking the looks of that storm on the Indiana/ Illinois border...
Showing hail >4.00in. Thats huge.
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269. Patrap 9:27 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
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270. Patrap 9:28 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
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271. nigel20 9:29 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting winter123:

Any models picking up on the NW Caribbean blob? Shear is too high right now, but it reminds me of a typical late May pre-tropical storm.

Not sure...i can't believe the hurricane season is almost here, just over a month to go
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272. CosmicEvents 9:29 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
I've been recommending for years that folks look back through the archives in the down times. You can spend days there. Yet, with all my recommending, I never went back and looked over the "Wilma Files", as this was the one storm that effected me and even 6 years later is effecting me. The area's not the same. In a grander sense, I think that Wilma was the nail in the coffin on the real estate bubble, which has led to the bursting of the world's economy as it becomes clearer everyday that there was way too much leveraging going on and it's gonna' take years more to de-leverage successfully, if we can.
.
Here on WU, I had been posting for months before Wilma. After Wilma, I lost power and lasted 1 night before securing my property and headed to my mom's condo in Inverrary, which had generators. From her 8th floor I could look down on the West Broward scenery as it blued. You can look back on my first blog that came 10 days after Wilma. LinkI stand by the human toll in the area, if anything I understated it.
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273. CybrTeddy 9:29 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
FWIW: SST's April 28th, 2009.


SST's April 27th, 2012.


Much warmer this year.
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274. LargoFl 9:34 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
ok the action for tonight is starting, stay safe up there......................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
406 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILC033-282145-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120428T2145Z/
CRAWFORD IL-
406 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OBLONG...OR 7 MILES WEST OF ROBINSON...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROBINSON...HARDINVILLE...NEW HEBRON...FLAT ROCK...PALESTINE...
STOY...TRIMBLE AND CRAWFORD COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 8755 3893 8794 3909 8794 3906 8758
3905 8757 3900 8757 3896 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 283DEG 32KT 3901 8784

$$

BAK
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275. seflagamma 9:37 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I've been recommending for years that folks look back through the archives in the down times. You can spend days there. Yet, with all my recommending, I never went back and looked over the "Wilma Files", as this was the one storm that effected me and even 6+ years later is effecting me. The area's not the same. In a grander sense, I think that Wilma was the nail in the coffin on the real estate bubble, which has led to the bursting of the world's economy as it becomes clearer everyday that there was way too much leveraging going on and it's gonna' take years more to de-leverage successfully, if we can.
.
Here on WU, I had been posting for months before Wilma. After Wilma, I lost power and lasted 1 night before securing my property and headed to my mom's condo in Inverrary, which had generators. From her 8th floor I could look down on the West Broward scenery as it blued. You can look back on my first blog that came 10 days after Wilma. I stand by the human toll in the area, if anything I understated it.


You know I went back and read your posting and it is so true. The media was all still fixed on katrina and much that went on here in SE Florida was left unreported...and our government wanted it left unreported so it would not hurt tourism..

Here is some of your header which is very insightful.


Wilma Aftermath


Posted by: CosmicEvents, 8:16 PM AST on November 03, 2005

Just got my power back on after 10 days so I'm not sure how the situation in South Florida, particularly Broward County and Southern Palm Beach County....is being reported nationally. There is a very serious human tragedy going on here, due to the nature of the demographics of this area. Many, many elderly folks, average age 80-90...have lived through quite an experience the last 10 days. There are tens of thousands of elderly people here living in retirement communities built mainly back in the 1970's. Many buildings condemened already. More to come. Probably 10000-20000 will eventually be "displaced", and at their age that's not a great prospect.
They have already lived through another bout of beauraucratic failure at all levels. The typical scanario for many of these infirmed elderly was to to be living on the second to fourth floor of a 4 story condo. No elictricity. No way to climb up and down the stairs. A hit and miss system of people checking on them. Most had not enough food or water. Almost all need some medications....and these were difficult to obtain. I could go on and on.....the story was reported well in the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel today....not sure if it's available on the Internet. If so...check it out.
As I see it the bottom line is that there are going to be roughly 1000 people that die as a result of Wilma. But this will go unreported. An 88 year old who dies from starvation, lack of water, lack of insulin, stress of living with no electricity in a condo with a roof that's leaking like a sieve, they can't get to their doctor by car or phone, or any other normal medical condition that comes up with people this age. It will go unreported. By the nature of the demographics.....a few hundred would have passed on normally. The added 1000-2000 who die a few years before their time is not something that can be quantified as being attributale to Wilma, but it's there.
The rest of us, myself included, have been through a Cat. 2 storm. I've dodged a few bullets...this was my first direct hit. Most of us, myself included, have suffered some relatively minor damage...but we'll get back to normal in a while.
I went through the heart of the storm in Western Broward. It was a stormchaser's dream. My home was shuttered up, except for my back patio, which is protected from winds but affords a great view. The front end was the worst I've ever experienced. Sustained 70-100 MPH winds with gusts to a bit over 100. The back end was downright scary. Sustained 80-100 winds with gusts to 120+. I overlook a golf course and have a great view for 700 yards. I was able to see the back end eye wall approaching towards me down the fairway of the golf course. Great footage, if I only had a video camera to film it it would have been awesome.As the eyewall approached, I could see it swirling across the golf course. When it hit the first house 200 yards from me it blew 50% of the roof off. The rest went within the next 15 minutes. When the eye wall hit my home it shook...rattled, and rolled. A very scary 30 minutes as I just hoped that my roof would hold, which it did. The back end, as reported by others was much stronger.
For me and my family and friends, the main thing is all are safe and sound.
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276. seflagamma 9:41 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
After Wilma I called relatives and told them we were OK and they were like, Why wouldn't you not be ok? You just had a little storm.

When I got power finally I was amazed that MSM was not even talking about Wilma....
I even got a little pissed about it at the time.

The only game in town on the media was Katrina..

no offense to those that suffered in Katrina.. it was bad... and many died because of poor judgement.

But SE Florida got kicked worse than predicted; many elderly probably died because of Wilma.. and today many of those Condos are still damaged and cannot be lived in...

Our people, for the most part, did well. We had a "warm up year" in 2004 to learn how to deal with storms...and It was really cool tempature wise afterwards so no heat to have to deal with. And most did have supplies so no one was starving...except maybe some of the elderly...
and of course, the ones that were on local TV just hours after Wilma passed crying for ice and water..

But our landscapes were changed for ever.. I lost 75% of my yard, fence, screens, trees...many lost alot wrose than that.

I just cannot believe how it was basically ignored by the media...

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277. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:41 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW: SST's April 28th, 2009.


SST's April 27th, 2012.


Much warmer this year.

I think overall we are warmer than last year in addition to 2009. There are some obvious spots where the waters are cooler, but taking a look at the whole Atlantic, I think 2012 wins out. At least, at this time.
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278. Barefootontherocks 9:45 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting seflagamma:
Hey BF, that was a crazy week when Wilma bombed out.. after Katrina & Rita we thought we had seen it all.

then Ms Wilma comes and blows up!

I love this from Lefty:

1443. leftyy420 7:02 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i personally think we are in uncharted tertory


Hi Gamms, Yes.
The way K and Rita had intensified in the GOM was amazing. Then... OMG. And then, of course, Alpha popped up and...on to Gamma (lol I remember you joking about that) all the way to Zeta. Seemed like they'd never quit. I missed the season up to I got here for the K storm, and did not sign up with my first handle till October.

DocNDswamp. And #185 - Barefoot, thanks for posting that!
Jaws on the floor with every fresh set of data that night... and tremendous relief after communications reestablished with recon flight! Wow...!!!

Wilma was jaw-dropping, especially following what we'd already seen in 2005. I know there were more memorable storms for you that year, and did not mean to slight them. The K storm blogs and the blogs after the 2005 season ended are some of the best of wu archives - the whole community, not just DocM's. Well, you know that.
:)

TropicalAnalyst13wx...
That's a good link DocNDswamp left. Hope you saw it - since you did not see a TWC archive.
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279. MAweatherboy1 9:46 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
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280. Tropicsweatherpr 9:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think overall we are warmer than last year in addition to 2009. There are some obvious spots where the waters are cooler, but taking a look at the whole Atlantic, I think 2012 wins out. At least, at this time.


13 and Cybr, this factor has been one of the main reasons by the experts (CSU,TSR,WSI) to go with average numbers in their April forecasts.Maybe in the next forecasts they raise by one or two,and with no sight of El Nino yet comming,that could be the case. What do you think about this?
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281. GeorgiaStormz 9:52 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
im seeing 50k+ tops and max VIL on some of these storms, and some weak rotation.
I wish i could stay and monitor them, but i have 2 be off to bed early.
Nite all, (for now at least)
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282. nigel20 9:54 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW: SST's April 28th, 2009.


SST's April 27th, 2012.


Much warmer this year.

wow! That's quite a massive difference
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283. flsky 9:54 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting stormpetrol:


Lots of rain here today!

Where is "here?"
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285. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:56 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


13 and Cybr, this factor has been one of the main reasons by the experts (CSU,TSR,WSI) to go with average numbers in their April forecasts.Maybe in the next forecasts they raise by one or two,and with no sight of El Nino yet comming,that could be the case. What do you think about this?

Waters are running below average in some spots, but near to above average in many others:



Wind Shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is running below average:





Looks more moist in the Atlantic basin this year as opposed to past ones at this time:



Vertical Instability in the Gulf of Mexico is running below average due to that strong area of low pressure a week ago, but should return to being significant above average soon:



Overall, I would raise the predicted number of named storms by 2 or so storms.
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287. nigel20 9:59 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Super typhoon Megi was quite a monster
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288. MAweatherboy1 10:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
NWS has a tornado warning on this storm but not the one in south central IL that is even stronger...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
559 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BICKNELL WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON...
SHOALS...
PLAINVILLE...
MONTGOMERY...
CANNELBURG...
WEST BOGGS LAKE...
BURNS CITY...
LOOGOOTEE...
LACY...
INDIAN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 8669 3856 8677 3868 8737 3887 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 281DEG 37KT 3877 8721

$$

50
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6341
290. nigel20 10:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Waters are running below average in some spots, but near to above average in many others:



Wind Shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is running below average:





Looks more moist in the Atlantic basin this year as opposed to past ones at this time:



Vertical Instability in the Gulf of Mexico is running below average due to that strong area of low pressure a week ago, but should return to being significant above average soon:



Overall, I would raise the predicted number of named storms by 2 or so storms.

I agree with you TAwx13
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
291. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
Super typhoon Megi was quite a monster

Typhoon Megi was as much a monster as Wilma was. 185 mph sustained winds, minimum barometric pressure of 885 mbar.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25205
292. jaxbeachbadger 10:03 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
I wish the lurkers would sometime just drop a line and let us know they are there. We aren't that bad. Well, some of us, anyway.


Thanks for the invite, Grothar. Howdy from the hurricanes-never-hit-here First Coast!
Member Since: April 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
293. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:03 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting EugeneTillman:
Question ladies and gentlemen of the blog. If a present day hurricane (whether small like a Charlie '04 or large like an Ike '08 at peak category 4 or 5 intensity were to take a similar path as Andrew through the Bahama islands, would the shallower waters and subsequently lower TCHP either weaken the cyclone or at the very least inhibit further intensification???

If it was moving relatively fast, it would lower the TCHP and subsequently inhibit much intensification. If the storm, however, was moving relatively slowly, it would weaken due to upwelling due to the hurricane's fierce windspeeds.

A large hurricane would upwell cooler waters over a larger area than a small one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25205
295. LargoFl 10:06 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
TORNADO WARNING
INC027-083-101-282230-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0014.120428T2159Z-120428T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
559 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN BICKNELL WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON...
SHOALS...
PLAINVILLE...
MONTGOMERY...
CANNELBURG...
WEST BOGGS LAKE...
BURNS CITY...
LOOGOOTEE...
LACY...
INDIAN SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 8669 3856 8677 3868 8737 3887 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 281DEG 37KT 3877 8721

$$

50
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
297. LargoFl 10:08 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
456 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

ILZ077-078-INZ081-082-282300-
EDWARDS-WABASH-GIBSON-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...FORT BRANCH...
PETERSBURG
456 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

A STRONG GUST FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH INTO
EDWARDS...WABASH...GIBSON...AND PIKE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL GUST TO
35-45 MPH AS THE GUST FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE GUST FRONT.

BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY WINDS BY SECURING LAWN FURNITURE AND LIGHT
OBJECTS OUTSIDE.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
298. nigel20 10:09 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typhoon Megi was as much a monster as Wilma was. 185 mph sustained winds, minimum barometric pressure of 885 mbar.


Yeah, they don't get much better than this
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
299. LargoFl 10:10 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
folks the weather is getting dangerous,stay safe out there and heed your local warnings...............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
506 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

MOC113-219-282245-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-120428T2245Z/
LINCOLN MO-WARREN MO-
506 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WARREN AND
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARRENTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WRIGHT CITY...TROY...MARTHASVILLE...DUTZOW AND MOSCOW MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 9126 3910 9126 3898 9085 3889 9087
3889 9096 3855 9097 3856 9100 3861 9105
3860 9115 3862 9122 3865 9123 3871 9131
3870 9137 3871 9142 3884 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 278DEG 38KT 3881 9108

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50 MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
300. LargoFl 10:11 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
INC083-153-290030-
/O.NEW.KIND.FF.W.0001.120428T2139Z-120429T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
539 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SULLIVAN.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IN THE TOWN OF
SULLIVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 8761 3911 8724 3891 8724 3891 8722
3887 8725 3884 8728 3883 8752 3889 8754
3892 8752 3896 8752 3897 8753 3898 8757
3906 8758

$$

JAS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
301. DocNDswamp 10:13 PM GMT on April 28, 2012    
#278,
Barefoot, I think that was blogger Thrawst that was asking about the Wilma animations... Glad to find 'em - for a while CIMSS had removed the original one, perhaps copyright issues (?), although I have the gifs / QTime versions saved in my own Wilma files...

Nahhh, no slighting at all on other storms - focus is on Wilma, although hard not to mention others... LOL, my 1st vague memory is of Audrey! Plenty of tropical cyclone impacts / memories in 6 decades living in same location of SE LA... In fact, have a hard time trying to place order of impact / precedence in an admittedly lengthy list...
;)

Heading out,
G'day all... and of course, safe wishes to all in path of current severe tstms!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4638

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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