Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

+41

Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."

Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.

Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Extreme Weather Climate Change

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251. pcbhere 12:04 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
The weather for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow is forecasted to be very warm with possible showers. Cosmic, I will root for Gemnologist for your friends. Although I do not bet on the races, my dad retired from Churchill Downs as the oldest employee ever. He was 86. Unfortunately, he passed at 88. He had a good life. He loved his job and he loved the horses! Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 49

252. LargoFl 12:04 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

253. ScottLincoln 12:04 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Sangria: Really?? You are going to bash him because he is a member on more than one site? What a juvenile and hostile attitude to take. I am glad that this is pre-season, and that a lot of "non-regulars" did not read your comment. No, he's going to bash him because he was ranting about people commenting on climate change, the actual topic of the blog post by Dr. Masters, instead of giving minute-by-minute rundowns of the weather exactly where he wanted it at that exact point in time. Meanwhile, local officials and even just a quick check of weather.gov could have given him the information he sought, much quicker and more official. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1531

254. weatherh98 12:05 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Sangria: Really?? You are going to bash him because he is a member on more than one site? What a juvenile and hostile attitude to take. I am glad that this is pre-season, and that a lot of "non-regulars" did not read your comment. Aren't we combining with them very soon? Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076

256. Neapolitan 12:08 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Sangria: Really?? You are going to bash him because he is a member on more than one site? What a juvenile and hostile attitude to take. I am glad that this is pre-season, and that a lot of "non-regulars" did not read your comment. I'm sorry; was that "bashing" in your eyes? I would think bashing would be more along the lines of "Thanks for nothing to the blog for the lack of an answer to my question", or "I got more immediate answers to the situation from other sites". Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

257. MAweatherboy1 12:09 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: Stop trying to stir up trouble. Especially here where you're dead wrong. I know at least 100 people who were at the Derby today. Horse racing an interest and a business for me. There's folks I know who were there who look to me for weather warnings at any track year round where there's a big event going on. They don't call me...I call them if there's a situation possible. One of the folks I phoned is a bigwig in track security there and my yellow flag to him was the first word the track received of the potential. If you'd care to take this off-line and put up 100k or so in escrow with your attorney then names and times can be produced. Otherwise, zip your lip. Are you threatening to sue the blog for not giving the weather at Churchill Downs? I believe I noted the evacuation in post 179, and as has already been said the NWS gives some pretty good forecasts if you need one. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342

258. weatherh98 12:11 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Are you threatening to sue the blog for not giving the weather at Churchill Downs? I believe I noted the evacuation in post 179, and as has already been said the NWS gives some pretty good forecasts if you need one. Stay back, don't get into it, it's about a lawsuit with the two of themnot the blog Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076

259. MAweatherboy1 12:11 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
This storm is a monster... Luckily non-tornadic BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 709 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLAY COUNTY IN TEXAS... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 707 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO AND ONE-HALF INCHES DIAMETER AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PETROLIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... PETROLIA...BYERS...TERRAL...DEAN AND CHARLIE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY. TAKE SHELTER NOW IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 3398 9842 3407 9842 3415 9836 3413 9830 3413 9821 3394 9776 3391 9779 3390 9778 3385 9786 3389 9797 3373 9798 TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 301DEG 21KT 3404 9827 $$ WR 819 Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342

260. Sangria 12:11 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: No, he's going to bash him because he was ranting about people commenting on climate change, the actual topic of the blog post by Dr. Masters, instead of giving minute-by-minute rundowns of the weather exactly where he wanted it at that exact point in time. Meanwhile, local officials and even just a quick check of weather.gov could have given him the information he sought, much quicker and more official. As best I could tell from his first post, he was looking for guidance on what "might" happen, before any warnings were posted. I thought that this blog, and others were supposed to be informative to people. If the NWS is where you, and others, would direct him, there is no need for this, or any other weather blogs on the web. Dr. Masters blog title may have been related to climate change, but this is first, and foremost, a weather blog. Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 123

261. MAweatherboy1 12:12 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Stay back, don't get into it, it's about a lawsuit with the two of themnot the blog Lol, I think you're right... Back to weather Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342

262. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:12 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
None of y'all are paying a bit of attention to the Severe Weather this afternoon. I feel alone. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

263. TemplesOfSyrinxC4 12:13 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Hood Tornado Warning Statement as of 7:09 PM CDT on May 04, 2012 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Hood County in north central Texas... * until 800 PM CDT * at 709 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 4 miles east of Lipan... moving east at 15 mph. * The tornado will be near... Oak trail shores around 740 PM CDT... Granbury around 755 PM CDT... This will impact I-20 between mile markers 384 and 386. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to an interior bathroom... closet... or hallway on the lowest floor of your building. Cover yourself with blankets... pillows... or a mattress for protection. Lat... Lon 3256 9807 3256 9771 3254 9761 3234 9762 3232 9773 3244 9804 3251 9807 time... Mot... loc 0009z 291deg 13kt 3252 9797 Member Since: February 5, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 271

264. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:13 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: Stop trying to stir up trouble. Especially here where you're dead wrong. I know at least 100 people who were at the Derby today. Horse racing an interest and a business for me. There's folks I know who were there who look to me for weather warnings at any track year round where there's a big event going on. They don't call me...I call them if there's a situation possible. One of the folks I phoned is a bigwig in track security there and my yellow flag to him was the first word the track received of the potential. If you'd care to take this off-line and put up 100k or so in escrow with your attorney then names and times can be produced. Otherwise, zip your lip. So now we've been reduced to threatening to sue people on a weather blog. Great. Fantastic. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

265. MAweatherboy1 12:13 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
The tornado warned storm in Texas is starting to crank up a little... Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342

266. Neapolitan 12:16 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: Stop trying to stir up trouble. Especially here where you're dead wrong. I know at least 100 people who were at the Derby today. Horse racing an interest and a business for me. There's folks I know who were there who look to me for weather warnings at any track year round where there's a big event going on. They don't call me...I call them if there's a situation possible. One of the folks I phoned is a bigwig in track security there and my yellow flag to him was the first word the track received of the potential. If you'd care to take this off-line and put up 100k or so in escrow with your attorney then names and times can be produced. Otherwise, zip your lip. Oooh, hostility. Unwarranted, I might add. My point being--and forgive me for being repetitious here--maybe if you have friends/clients in dire need of breaking weather info, especially if there are six- or seven-figure dollar amounts riding on that info, they and/or you might be better served acquiring it somewhere that distributes official breaking weather data. That's all. (If I had that kind of money riding on horses--or anything else, for that matter--I seriously doubt I'd make any life or death decisions based on what info could be gleaned from comments in a free-flowing internet forum. Case in point: I'm a pilot, and frequently fly high performance machines costing in the high six figures to over a million. When I do so, I avail myself of the reams of flight weather data available from many official sources. I do not make no or no-go decisions based on conversations with people in this forum or any other.) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

267. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:16 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
This is way too close to where I used to live. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

269. pcbhere 12:24 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
It was reported that 113,000 people attended Churchill Downs today. Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 49

270. ncstorm 12:24 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: There's a difference between what weather is about to strike Elba as oposed to Churchill Downs, where on a day like today we have one of the largest outdoor crowds the country sees. And vulnerable sitting ducks in a racetrack infield, 50000 crammed into a few acres. The blog failed. Cosmic, I detest the climate change discussion as well as many posters here know but I have to say that no one should be coming here for life or death decisions concerning weather. Your local NWS has an online website, they can be called or some even have live chat. No one on this blog is an expert and should not give out advice concerning evacuations, etc related to a storm. As some want to think they can give out advice, you should ALWAYS refer to your local NWS for guidance. Glad that your friends are safe though Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8363

271. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:28 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: There's a difference between what weather is about to strike Elba as oposed to Churchill Downs, where on a day like today we have one of the largest outdoor crowds the country sees. And vulnerable sitting ducks in a racetrack infield, 50000 crammed into a few acres. The blog failed. I didn't realize it was the blog's obligation to provide up to the minute weather information for horse events across the USA. The area was evacuated, as stated on the blog, so people in the area were well-aware of the situation. Had one on the blog wanted to gain information about the situation, he or she could just go to the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

272. Chucktown 12:30 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
A boring Friday night here in the Storm Center. Here is a little comedy about the GFS. Note: There is a little adult language towards the end. Link Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383

273. weatherh98 12:31 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is way too close to where I used to live. Where Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076

275. SWFLgazer 12:33 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
350.org No pressure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQtFyvqqnj4 Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447

276. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:36 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Where A mile northwest of Fort Worth. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

277. CosmicEvents 12:37 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I didn't realize it was the blog's obligation to provide up to the minute weather information for horse events across the USA. The area was evacuated, as stated on the blog, so people in the area were well-aware of the situation. Had one on the blog wanted to gain information about the situation, he or she could just go to the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel. No, they couldn't. The Weather Channel didn't even mention the possibility for at least an hour after I asked the initial question, and the NWS had the Louisville area under a thunderstorm watch at the time. The upgraded warnings didn't come in until well over an hour AFTER my initial post...the one where the blog failed. . . Believe me, I'm not looking to this blog for the last word. I was looking for some(any) insight beyond what the NWS was saying. I'm sure if you had looked at the situation you would have been knowledgable enough to give some insight that I'd add to my database. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5097

278. CosmicEvents 12:41 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
........... Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5097

279. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:44 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents: No, they couldn't. The Weather Channel didn't even mention the possibility for at least an hour after I asked the initial question, and the NWS had the Louisville are under a thunderstorm watch. The upgraded warnings didn't come in until well over an hour AFTER my initial post...the one where the blog failed. . . Believe me, I'm not looking to this blog for the last word. I was looking for some(any) insight beyond what the NWS was saying. I'm sure if you had looked at the situation you would have been knowledgable enough to give some insight that I'd add to my database. I tracked the line the entire time. Sure, it met severe criteria with winds of 40-50 mph. However, all people residing in outdoor tents were evacuated so I had very little concern for the people there and very little reason to mention it on the blog. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

280. ncstorm 12:45 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8363

281. interstatelover7165 12:47 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: The Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico has been extended until Saturday afternoon. FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012 PRZ001>007-009-012-013-VIZ001-002-050830- /O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120505T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR- NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR- CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX- INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN... CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA... SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO... COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... UTUADO... SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA... ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST... CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED... FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE 421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA... EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS. * THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON * A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND LOCAL REGION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH...THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING HOURS OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY... THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS... RIVERS AND DRY GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING IN MOST PLACES OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT SOME MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES...RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS UNDER THE WATCH...AND RIVERS AND STREAM WILL REMAIN AT DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION...AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS... ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV. && $$ RAM/JFR/RVT Speaking of which...hey where's been WeatherFanPR all this time? Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

282. CosmicEvents 12:53 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I tracked the line the entire time. Sure, it met severe criteria with winds of 40-50 mph. However, all people residing in outdoor tents were evacuated so I had very little concern for the people there and very little reason to mention it on the blog. Please....you track storms that are threatening Palookaville. Folks in tents? We're talking about 50-100k folks outside at a premier world-class event. I'm surprised you were so blase. Though the track officials do have their own resources and made the proper call...these track officials are not weather experts, unlike the NWS. Anyway, it turned out well in the end as the storm also weakened. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5097

284. sunlinepr 12:56 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8440

285. LargoFl 12:57 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
looks like texas is seeing some action tonight..... Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

286. Skyepony (Mod) 12:57 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
I've used Wunderground NEXRAD & their decimation of info from NWS to delay races before. One day we had that EF0 tornado that hit Sam's Club in West Melbourne hit the track. I could only see out the north side of the building, it came from the south over the building (busting lights, tossing TV's equipment), right over me. onto the track & coupled with the pond, forming a water spout briefly before moving on. I was on the roof..didn't get the window closed until after some charts had got sucked out. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29266

287. LargoFl 1:01 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING SCC009-075-050115- /O.NEW.KCAE.SV.W.0063.120505T0025Z-120505T0115Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 825 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BAMBERG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 915 PM EDT * AT 825 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRANCHVILLE AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE ORANGEBURG... BRANCHVILLE AND BOWMAN REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2. LAT...LON 3339 8110 3355 8074 3352 8069 3351 8070 3347 8066 3347 8064 3335 8048 3314 8086 TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 259DEG 23KT 3333 8081 $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

288. jamesrainier 1:03 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nrc.gif Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65

289. LargoFl 1:04 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
local news said to view the night sky tomorrow night for a look at a Super Moon....guys, whats a super moon?...is this when the moon comes closest to the earth and looks larger? Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

290. jamesrainier 1:04 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 802 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 902 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012 TORNADO WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 802 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 800 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 758 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 756 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 754 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65

291. LargoFl 1:05 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier: larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nrc.gif looks like the dry area's of texas are getting some rain tonight Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

292. Tribucanes 1:06 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
What am I missing. The site in question (Churchill Downs), has ample technology to monitor the situation. They have meteorologists who are more than capable of making that call. They have for a really long time. Cosmic it seems like your the one stirring up a silly argument. I have found I get quick precise answers almost always here. Churchill Downs doesn't need you or us to make that call. Chastising people isn't the way to go either. Real time info here is usually right on and really good. Dissent and silly arguments are few. Lots of differing opinion, but up to now, few intentional jerks. Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1622

293. Skyepony (Mod) 1:06 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Torrential rain and strong winds caused chaos last weekend leaving about 200 homes in Midsomer Norton without power.People living in Oliver Brooks Road, Midsomer Norton, contacted the Somerset Guardian after finding water gushing through their garages and from manhole covers in gardens, pictured.Resident Graham Chedgy said many householders were frustrated that their concerns about flooding had not been addressed and that they were now facing problems as the water failed to soak away.The view was reiterated by neighbours who called on Bath and North East Somerset Council to check that planning conditions for drainage at the estate have been fulfilled.In East Harptree emergency services were called to stop flood water entering a property on Whitecross Road on Tuesday.More than three times the expected rainfall during April has boosted reservoir levels at Chew Valley and Blagdon.During the last month rainfall totalled 160mm compared to the April average of 55mm.Bristol Water said that while the almost unprecedented level of rainfall has been welcome and there are no plans to impose restrictions on water use during the summer, customers should still be sensible when using the resource. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29266

294. Sangria 1:08 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: local news said to view the night sky tomorrow night for a look at a Super Moon....guys, whats a super moon?...is this when the moon comes closest to the earth and looks larger? Yes..the technical term is called "perigree"...if I remember correctly, it will be best viewed at 11:35 EDT. Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 123

295. LargoFl 1:09 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Sangria: Yes..the technical term is called "perigree"...if I remember correctly, it will be best viewed at 11:35 EDT. ty, thats great hope we have clear skies tomorrow night Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

296. LargoFl 1:10 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

297. nigel20 1:10 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Good evening all The SST's are warming steadily now that the NAO is negative Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512

298. Tribucanes 1:10 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
How wild Skyepony, your looking out one side and it hits the south side, scary. Sound like a strong waterspout. Had one in Madison last year winds only 65mph. Is that the only twister you've been in? Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1622

299. jamesrainier 1:11 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65

300. ILwthrfan 1:12 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: How far did the lake breeze / front make it down. South of I-74? 20 miles north of that or so, temperatures where in the low 60's. Champaign was sitting at 80. Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008

301. LargoFl 1:12 AM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421

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