U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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I realize, of course, that to some the graph in Figure 2 doesn't reflect any real warming, but is only rather the result of the urban heat island effect, a growing population, thousands of badly placed thermometers, a sign of imminent cooling, part of an agenda to convert the United States to socialism, and rampant manipulation by the Great Evil Worldwide Cabal Of Communist Climate Scientists Bent On Global Domination. We understand. :-\
So far, at least, May is following the YTD trend, with 2,521 record high or high minimum temperatures, and just 111 record low or low maximums. (YTD: 30,952 to 3,009, or 10.29:1). The southeast is expected to cool down next week, however, even as the west heats up, so it'll be interesting to see how that changes in the days to come:
Statement as of 1:24 PM CDT on May 08, 2012
... Tropical funnel clouds possible...
At 1 PM... the National Weather Service has received a report of a
funnel cloud near Twin Cities Highway in Port Arthur. Scattered
thunderstorms were occurring along coastal Jefferson County into
Port Arthur and Sabine Lake eastward into southwest Louisiana.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue along
and south of Interstate 10 early this afternoon from Jefferson
County to Jeff Davis and eastern Cameron parishes.
A very moist and unstable tropical airmass is in place across the
area. Meanwhile... the vertical wind profile over the area is light
and variable. These conditions are favorable for the development
of tropical funnel clouds... especially where rain cooled
boundaries... known as outflow boundaries... and the seabreeze
collide.
These tropical funnel clouds are usually short-lived and do not
reach the ground. If The Funnel cloud becomes more severe and
reaches the ground... minor damage may occur... and a Tornado Warning
will likely be issued.
Stay tuned for later statements and updates on this weather
situation.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
FLC099-081900-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120508T1900Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...
AT 241 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.
LAT...LON 2688 8005 2689 8013 2692 8013 2693 8010
2693 8008 2693 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 299DEG 11KT 2690 8010
$$
BAXTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
FLZ064-081915-
MARTIN-
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER JOHNATHAN
DICKINSON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE HOBE SOUND...JONATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK
AND JUPITER ISLAND.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
LAT...LON 2696 8023 2714 8031 2720 8019 2719 8017
2720 8018 2721 8016 2718 8015 2716 8015
2703 8009 2697 8007 2697 8014 2695 8015
2695 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 235DEG 5KT 2702 8017
$$
WEITLICH
Better find your umbrella and roll up you car windows...
A complex of thunderstorms over Central Texas is heading our way. IF it holds together and keeps its current speed, then ETA is around 6 p.m. this evening.
Thunderstorms along a outflow boundary in South Jefferson County show little movement. Consequently, very heavy rainfall is expected - over 2 inches is possible. We have relayed a report of a funnel cloud to the LCH National Weather Service. The funnel was reported over Twin City Highway near Sonic around 12 :35 this afternoon.
The rest of this afternoon...
Increasing cloudiness with a 50% coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will rise into the middle 80s. This will greatly increase instability. Light northwesterly winds are forecasted.
I see it. I'm not too good with the lat/long is that mentioned here?
SW N ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N70W
TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBS INDICATE
WINDS ARE 20-25 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO BEYOND 25N55W. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT
OF THE NE GULF THU. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS COLD FRONT FRI AND SAT...WITH THE GFS BUILDING
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
Yep, because most models take it northward..thanks!!!
So if what you are saying is true, you must inform me how the UHI is also causing the reported increase in ocean heat content over the past 60 years:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat _content55-07.png
I don't seem to know of any expansive urban areas being located in the oceans, which happen cover over 70 percent of the earth's surface.
You're welcome.
Looks to me like winds at different levels are pushing clouds two differnt directions. The higher level clouds are moving west while the low clouds are moving east.
"Most extreme since 1895" says it all.
IMO
If you were an honest skeptic, I'd suggest playing around with some realistic albedo and heat island effect numbers for yourself.
If you really want the truth, you'll soon find your assumptions are wrong.
wow: did not realize it had been so long -
Member Since: December 17, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
Guess I need to speak up more often. :-)
And the oceans, glaciers, arctic ice extent, growing seasons?
Are they all huddled around these heat islands, like a bunch of homeless people trying to fool those stupid scientists?
seriously, anytime I see comments like this I think someone is being sarcastic because after a decade of denial people can't be that dense. Can they?
Well first, the GFS has shown the tropical storm in the Caribbean at 384 hours for the past three weeks. It wasn't until today's 06Z run that the GFS Ensembles jumped on board with potential development. Second, the ECMWF does not show anything because the model only goes out to 240 hours, well before the potential range for development.
Tropical development in both the East Pacific and Atlantic would make sense in the last week of May as a strong upward pulse of the MJO enters both basins.
Still sticking with my predictions from last week -
Aletta: May 15-May 25
Alberto: May 21-June 2
Link
Preliminary Findings
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project has drafted four scientific papers setting out the main conclusions of the study to date. The papers have been submitted for peer review and cover the following topics:
Statistical Methods
Urban Heat Island
Station Quality
Decadal Variations
Link
img src="http://berkeleyearth.org/images/land-surface- average-
temperature-berkeley-earth.jpg">
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northeastern Broward County in South Florida.
South central Palm Beach County in South Florida.
* Until 430 PM EDT
* at 336 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 5 miles
west of Coral Springs... and moving northeast at 15 mph.
* The storm will affect...
Tamarac...
Coral Springs...
Parkland...
Coconut Creek...
Mission Bay...
and surrounding communities.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and
or large hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall is
also possible. If the storm approaches your location, seek shelter in
an enclosed building on the lowest floor and stay away from windows.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this thunderstorm. If
outdoors... stay away from isolated high objects such as trees and
avoid water. Move indoors or inside a vehicle if possible. Avoid
using the telephone unless it is an emergency. Try to unplug
unnecessary electrical appliances before the thunderstorm approaches.
Severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes with little or no
advance warning. Prepare to move to a place of safety in an interior
room in the lowest floor of your house or business if a tornado is
spotted.
Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.
As the proverbial says "We shall see".
What's up TWpr? The weather across the eastern caribbean have been worst than I thought...thanks for sharing the info
I believe these figures are already subject to an adjustment for urban heating. In any event, BEST and other analyses have found no significant differences in the trend for urban and rural areas.
They can be dishonest.
I live in East Central Florida and think I turned the heat on once all winter.
I have long felt that once the insurance companies get on board we will turn the corner.
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