U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2012

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The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.


Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.

Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Warm in the west, cold in the east will be the general theme next week.
Well, not cold, but cooler, and then only in the south, then Florida:

heat

heat
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Good morning.

6z GFS:



This run is still showing a TS within 10 days but not nearly as strong as yesterday's 12z run
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7629
982. MahFL
The smell of smoke is strong this am, I could even smell it in the garage. Orange Park, FL.
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hey guys look like I said yesterday tropical wave

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110400-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
415 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60
MPH, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF A TORNADO DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

TORNADOES: A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS INTERACT WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE.

HAIL: HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: ISOLATED LOCALES COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN OVER A
SHORT DURATION WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36972
flare 3 hours ago:

STRONG SOLAR FLARE ALERT:
A strong solar flare reaching M5.7 took place at 04:18 UTC Thursday morning.
The flare was centered around Sunspot 1476.

No CME yet.





(from solarham.com)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Warm in the west, cold in the east will be the general theme next week.




you guys can keep the cold i want warm and hot this time of year
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hi warm tonight


Warm in the west, cold in the east will be the general theme next week.
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hi warm tonight
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Should have just rode on the gigantic eagles to mordor... solves everything.




lol.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Whether we get Aletta or Alberto, I do think the western Caribbean/eastern Pacific needs to be watched over the next two weeks. I'm not a fan of long-range model predictions, and I can guarantee there will not be a tropical cyclone anytime soon. However, the GFS does tend to handle the evolution of the synoptic pattern rather well, even up to two weeks in advance. Plus, the MJO could be in full swing during that timeframe, as well.
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Quoting Jedkins01:





come at me bro



I think that actually went off air about time I was getting old enough to watch television and understand it.

I remember a few vague impressions of the cartoon, and of course the movie, and that's about it. I seem to remember a show called "Thundercats" with humanoid cats, which also went off air about the same time.

Now, for Voltron, I actually remember entire scenes, but not the dialogue.

When you get into late 1980's stuff,(ghost busters, ninja turtles, "Cops",etc) I seem to have entire episodes nearly memorized, i.e. able to describe the entire plot of an episode, and many scenes and dialogues accurately from memory, even though I only saw it one time, and haven't seen it for 22 or more years. The visual aspects I could reconstruct more accurately than the dialogue. Synesthesia, Eidetic Memory, Hyperfocus.

Colorful characters, abilities, animations, etc, in the right combinations are actually very hard for me to forget, which is very much a problem for me.

When I watch a new movie, it can sometimes take my brain a few days to a week to sort everything out due to what seems to be the "tetris effect" and an "audio playback" effect that my mind goes through. It is very distracting, and almost crippling at times.

At any rate, I must not have watched "He-Man" very much, or was just too young or something, because there's nothing in there except the vaguest impressions: Skeletor, and obtaining a sword that gave him power, which seems to be a rip-off of Arthurian legends, and such.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting JNCali:
Jumping Hurricanes, Lord of the Rings and He Man.. gotta be that big Sunspot


Delayed effect of the Super Moon, maybe?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
In fact, you learn more about Tom Bombadil than you do Sauron, and he was totally cut from the movies, mercifully, because that was one of the dumbest scenes in the books anyway.

Ah, ha!
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Quoting JNCali:
Jumping Hurricanes, Lord of the Rings and He Man.. gotta be that big Sunspot



hahaha
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7294
Jumping Hurricanes, Lord of the Rings and He Man.. gotta be that big Sunspot

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Quoting KoritheMan:


On track with what?

developing some sort of tropical entity between 18th to the 24th
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Quoting KoritheMan:


On track with what?
phatom storm
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Quoting Levi32:


1.) You need to read up.

2.) I won't tolerate a Lord of the Rings hater. Nothing more epic has ever been written and then filmed.


Should have just rode on the gigantic eagles to mordor... solves everything.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well GFS seem to be on the right track so far but still trust 00Z and 12Z runs better


On track with what?
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well GFS seem to be on the right track so far but still trust 00Z and 12Z runs better
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Quoting RTSplayer:


I got my information from those two the the Maia article.

Lol.

Read carefully, friend.

All three articles tell you that Balrogs are in fact Maia, just like Sauron and Gandalf, etc.

I agree. They were very helpful in supporting my argument.





come at me bro

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7294
Quoting RTSplayer:


We are apparently trying to destroy the planet as efficiently as possible.


I picture a silhouette of a single being, surrounded by the ruin that was once it's home, a remainder of a race that squandered its gifts. But although their mistakes spawned tragedy, this living relic survives so that new hope may breed in place of demise, where empathy may replace indifference, and time may redeem the sins of the past.
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.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7294
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Clearly you have never marveled at the complete collection of the He-Man animated series.



hahahahaha dude I gotta hand it to you for giving me the laugh of the night :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7294
Quoting goosegirl1:


Link

Link

This may help.


I got my information from those two the the Maia article.

Lol.

Read carefully, friend.

All three articles tell you that Balrogs are in fact Maia, just like Sauron and Gandalf, etc.

I agree. They were very helpful in supporting my argument.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Two more years until we break 400! Come on gang! Don't let up now! We're almost there! /snark


We are apparently trying to destroy the planet as efficiently as possible.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Levi32:


1.) You need to read up.

2.) I won't tolerate a Lord of the Rings hater. Nothing more epic has ever been written and then filmed.



haha agreed, and anyone who criticizes LOTR that way really needs to tone down the ego...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7294
Quoting RTSplayer:
Does anyone know when the Cryosphere today arctic sea ice page is going to be fixed?

It's been broken since the 29th, presumably, since the last good data update was for the 28th.

Here

It scrambles the searches and just gives you random days.

Have their javascript been hacked or something?


I think they are having server problems. No fix date stated as of yet.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:






LOL
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Quoting RTSplayer:


I got that from the official encyclopedia entry.

It's been like that since it was written.

From "Maia":
Melkor (known in Sindarin as Morgoth), the evil Vala, corrupted many Maiar into his service. These included Sauron, the main antagonist of The Lord of the Rings, and the Balrogs, his demons of flame and shadow.[4] These are called in Quenya Úmaiar.

Therefore, Sauron and Balrogs are the same thing, and they are also the same thing as Gandalf, Saruman, and the other "Istari" or "Wizards," as I stated, and as the other article quote also stated.

They are all shapeshifters, and immortal, and none of them can ever actually be killed, even if their physical body is destroyed.


Link

Link

This may help.
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I post ONE LOTR meme and look what happens! And that's why I love this place! Goodnight everyone!
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Quoting Patrap:
April co2 is in...Mauna Loa

Note the numbers trend last 12 mth's, and esp last month.

co2now.org

396.18ppm



Two more years until we break 400! Come on gang! Don't let up now! We're almost there! /snark
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Quoting Levi32:


1.) You need to read up.

2.) I won't tolerate a Lord of the Rings hater. Nothing more epic has ever been written and then filmed.


Clearly you have never marveled at the complete collection of the He-Man animated series.
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Im mo a Bullwinkle and Rocky kinda guy myself.

Hey Rocky, watch me pull the GFSx outta my Hat!!
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Quoting goosegirl1:


No, Gandalf and the Balrog were similar; Sauron was a higher order and was created at the beginning. The order of wizards were sent to Middle Earth to unite all forces against Sauron. And it's time for this nerd to dust off the books and go to bed :)


I got that from the official encyclopedia entry.

It's been like that since it was written.

From "Maia":
Melkor (known in Sindarin as Morgoth), the evil Vala, corrupted many Maiar into his service. These included Sauron, the main antagonist of The Lord of the Rings, and the Balrogs, his demons of flame and shadow.[4] These are called in Quenya maiar.

Therefore, Sauron and Balrogs are the same thing, and they are also the same thing as Gandalf, Saruman, and the other "Istari" or "Wizards," as I stated, and as the other article quote also stated.

They are all shapeshifters, and immortal, and none of them can ever actually be killed, even if their physical body is destroyed.


In reality, almost nothing is ever said about Sauron or Balrogs in the actual LotR trilogy, except possibly in the appendix. Sauron is one of the least described villains in the history of literature, at least within the trilogy. In fact, you learn more about Tom Bombadil than you do Sauron, and he was totally cut from the movies, mercifully, because that was one of the dumbest scenes in the books anyway.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting RTSplayer:


1) I don't hate the books, I read them several times.

2) The movies were a tragic let down, including a couple ridiculous scenes where the original text was totally butchered.

3) I would have preferred if the movies were done using Tolkien's style of English for the dialogue, just as in the book, instead of the "modernization" of the language. Who cares if half the modern audience is too dumb to understand it? They can get a thesaurus.

4) As for the writing:

The first 4 books of the Wheel of Time series were off the scale compared to LotR. I'd say the first book past page 70, when the introduction is over and the action really starts, and the third book are probably the best two pieces of High Fantasy or Science Fiction novels I've ever read, and I used to read quite a few.

That was when the series was still quality "from the gut" story telling. Later on, it just got old and a lot of filler. Jordan was very, very superior to Tolkien when it comes to character development, describing battles with somewhat realistic fighting mechanics, and individual character and racial styles and habits, the "mechanics" of their special abilities, 3rd person partial knowledge of villains, and so on.

They really aren't even in the same league. Jordan's works were far more dynamic and descriptive of characters and mechanics, not to mention believable character rivalries and backstabbing and such. Even though I would say Jordan had some places where his writing was really horrible, overall I'd give him a landslide victory over Tolkien. It's true that there are some similar concepts to Tolkien, but in terms of style and execution it's just not even comparable.

Tolkien wrote the LoTR series starting in 1937 (with The Hobbit). Jordan didn't start until 1984. Also, LoTR was initially designed as a "children's book" (closer to young adult reading level, actually), while WoT was designed for a more adult audience.

Comparing LoTR and WoT is akin to comparing Mark Twain and Shakespeare. Both wrote stuff, but entirely different audiences and timeframes.
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Dinasouars farting again!!!We are all doomed!!!
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Good night all....don't do anything I wouldn't do
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00z GFS is starting to run. Let's see what it brings.
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938. centex 10:24 PM CDT

TYVM,

..we all can make a difference.


Thanx for contributing as well.
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Quoting Levi32:


1.) You need to read up.

2.) I won't tolerate a Lord of the Rings hater. Nothing more epic has ever been written and then filmed.


1) I don't hate the books, I read them several times.

2) The movies were a tragic let down, including a couple ridiculous scenes where the original text was totally butchered.

3) I would have preferred if the movies were done using Tolkien's style of English for the dialogue, just as in the book, instead of the "modernization" of the language. Who cares if half the modern audience is too dumb to understand it? They can get a thesaurus.

4) As for the writing:

The first 4 books of the Wheel of Time series were off the scale compared to LotR. I'd say the first book past page 70, when the introduction is over and the action really starts, and the third book are probably the best two pieces of High Fantasy or Science Fiction novels I've ever read, and I used to read quite a few.

That was when the series was still quality "from the gut" story telling. Later on, it just got old and a lot of filler. Jordan was very, very superior to Tolkien when it comes to character development, describing battles with somewhat realistic fighting mechanics, and individual character and racial styles and habits, the "mechanics" of their special abilities, 3rd person partial knowledge of villains, and so on.

They really aren't even in the same league. Jordan's works were far more dynamic and descriptive of characters and mechanics, not to mention believable character rivalries and backstabbing and such. Even though I would say Jordan had some places where his writing was really horrible, overall I'd give him a landslide victory over Tolkien. It's true that there are some similar concepts to Tolkien, but in terms of style and execution it's just not even comparable.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Patrap:

Heartland Stands By Its Climate Change Denial As Donors Jump Ship
Posted: 05/09/2012 7:41 pm Updated: 05/09/2012 8:01 pm


Been reading your post for years. Appreciate them and helping us see the lighter side.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The Battle wasn't 1vs1, but Isuldur beat Sauron in 1vs1 combat.

Balrogs:
[q]In later writings they ceased to be creatures, but are instead Maiar, lesser Ainur like Gandalf or Sauron, spirits of fire whom Melkor had corrupted before the creation of the World.[3] Power of the order of Gandalf's was necessary to destroy them,[20] and as Maiar, only their physical forms could be destroyed.[/q]

So technically, Gandalf, Sauron, and Balrogs are all the same type of "being," they simply choose different forms of expression.

I'll leave it alone, because it's off topic.


No, Gandalf and the Balrog were similar; Sauron was a higher order and was created at the beginning. The order of wizards were sent to Middle Earth to unite all forces against Sauron. And it's time for this nerd to dust off the books and go to bed :)
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Quoting goosegirl1:


Sauron was neither human nor a balrog. The balrog appears in The Fellowship of the Rings in the mines of Moria, when the wizard Gandalf fell to his apparant death. Sauron was one of the Maiar, a spirit created by Illuvitar, and he became the smith who forged the One Ring.

Thus, Sauron was an ancient god created at the beginning of Middle Earth, and the balrog was a fire demon. Sauron placed most of his power into the One Ring that he forged in secret.

The battle was not one on one, but was a battle of an alliance of elves and men against Sauron.

And now all of you know I am a huge nerd who reads the Silmarilion!


The Battle wasn't 1vs1, but Isuldur beat Sauron in 1vs1 combat.

Balrogs:
[q]In later writings they ceased to be creatures, but are instead Maiar, lesser Ainur like Gandalf or Sauron, spirits of fire whom Melkor had corrupted before the creation of the World.[3] Power of the order of Gandalf's was necessary to destroy them,[20] and as Maiar, only their physical forms could be destroyed.[/q]

So technically, Gandalf, Sauron, and Balrogs are all the same type of "being," they simply choose different forms of expression.

I'll leave it alone, because it's off topic.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting DocBen:
But the denialists will continue to claim nothing is happening!Quoting DocBen:
But the denialists will continue to claim nothing is happening!
Right and many who are not in denial will not comment. Not news. Ignore them, they have zero scientific support. It's not news, man is warming our planet and changes do not fit normal patterns of climate change. The only debate is how bad.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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