Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2012 +42
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.


Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.

Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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1351. weatherh98 11:50 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
..seems the Atlantic seasonal start may have to be moved to the May 15th mark in the futcha'..


The East Pac does and well, we have been leaning into it as well earlier on avg.

Maybe a good subject for a Graduate.



Yes I agree it should now, mays have become what junes used to be,

For a graduate to get their doctorate
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1352. MAweatherboy1 11:52 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Remember 13 that the 00z and 12z runs always have the best data incorporated.

That's why I've found it odd that the last two 12z runs of the GFS have been seemingly very unreliable and inconsistent compared with the other runs... Yesterday's 12z showed a hurricane hitting south Florida... The track made sense but intensity seemed way over done... And then today's 12z the intensity made sense but the track towards Tampa seemed very unlikely. The 0z tonight will probably tell the real story, whatever that may be.
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1353. Patrap 11:54 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
Quoting presslord:


Floyd caused much traffic mayhem in this part of what you erroneously...and annoyingly...refer to as 'the Carolinas'





Oh we remember that one, dont we Andy?,


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112975
1354. Grothar 11:55 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Thanks for that information. I was stating it would be difficult to date back to the 1700s.



Quoting bappit:

Grothar would know.


Dating wasn't difficult in the 1700's. But getting permission from the King was.


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1355. Patrap 11:57 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:





Dating wasn't difficult in the 1700's. But getting permission from King was.





They we're a tad overbearing with the Tea and That A& P outfit, I mean, Lafitte never had the problems the Americans had, till, well, New Orleans and that didnt fare to well fer dem downriver in Chalmette,

Crawfish?
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1356. CybrTeddy 11:57 PM GMT on May 10, 2012    
18Z developed this system way earlier than the last one and should be disregarded compared to the 12z and 00z.
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1357. MAweatherboy1 12:00 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Very nasty looking hook with a TVS on the lead tornado warned storm in TX... Rotation doesn't seem to strong though
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1358. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    


The SWPC in Boulder issued a flare alert after an M-class flare in active region 11476. Here is an EVE plot from noon today showing the history of spectral irradiances. We usually look at the blue line in the top panel, the ESP 0.1-7 nm radiometer. It is very similar to the GOES X-ray measurements. The M-class flare is the spike in the blue line just after 0400 UT today. The dark count is a measure of the energetic particles hitting SDO and usually rises around 1800 UT each day because of the Earth's radiation belts.



sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov
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1359. MAweatherboy1 12:03 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
That's 12 Earths from end to end

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1360. Grothar 12:04 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I would guess 1550 miles from the Carolina,s. Considering the Carolina,s jut so far out into the Atlantic. I think thats why the Carolina,s get hit so much. 1999,s Floyd was the worst Carolina,s hurricane in many years...


Someone's cruising..........
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1361. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:09 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's why I've found it odd that the last two 12z runs of the GFS have been seemingly very unreliable and inconsistent compared with the other runs... Yesterday's 12z showed a hurricane hitting south Florida... The track made sense but intensity seemed way over done... And then today's 12z the intensity made sense but the track towards Tampa seemed very unlikely. The 0z tonight will probably tell the real story, whatever that may be.

Either track is climatologically favored this time of year.
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1362. Grothar 12:12 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Where does the water in Waterspouts come from?
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1363. aspectre 12:14 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
1295 bohonkweatherman: We had tree experts on the Local News last night saying the Drought in parts of Texas last year was the worst drought for some parts since the 1700's? I am not sure how they could tell...
1305 bappit: Get enough tree rings and you'd know. Live oaks and bald cypress are long-lived trees. Found this article on a study published here if that helps.
1318 DavidHOUTX: Thanks for that information. I was stating it would be difficult to date back to the 1700s.

Don't need long-lived species to create records extending well past short-lived species lifespans, just a continuity of preserved trees that overlapped parts of their lifespans. Dendrochronology
Even preserved lumber can be used as samples for the purpose of such crossdating.
In areas in which trees lived near long-lived streams, rivers, watering holes, ponds, or lakes, one can crosscheck (and also further extend crossdates) by comparing yearly sediment layers against yearly growth in tree rings.
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1365. presslord 12:17 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Someone's cruising..........


cursing....someone's cursing.....
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1366. presslord 12:18 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Just realized that I made the faux pas of referring to North Carolina and South Carolina as the "Carolinas"....



it's OK...the first step toward recovery is admitting you have a problem....
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1367. WxGeekVA 12:21 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting presslord:


it's OK...the first step toward recovery is admitting you have a problem....


I know the feeling though... when people refer to West Virginia and Virginia as the Virginias... Don't want to be lumped in the same category as them "mountain folk"...
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1368. nigel20 12:22 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
The SOI is upto +3.7, but the upward trend is not as fast as before...it could be on it's way back negative
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1369. RTLSNK (Mod) 12:24 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
Where does the water in Waterspouts come from?


Don't worry Grothar, someone will have the answer. :)
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1370. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:26 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
Where does the water in Waterspouts come from?

The world will never know...
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1371. nigel20 12:29 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
May 10, 2012 SST's

The SST's are steaming off the western coast of central america
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1372. aspectre 12:29 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
1366 presslord: ...the first step toward recovery is admitting you have a problem....

Yep, quit tryin' to split North and South. The Carolinas have been happily married for spans lasting as long as several days at a time in their hundreds of years together.
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1373. thunderbug91 12:30 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Either track is climatologically favored this time of year.

It's favored by me too... I need the rain.
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1374. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:32 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
I currently live in The Carolinas; I've never visited The Virginias nor The Dakotas.
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1375. presslord 12:34 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
Yep, quit tryin' to split North and South. The Carolinas have been happily married for spans of several days at a time in their hundreds of years together.


everything was fine when the Lords Proprietor ruled the Carolinas from Charleston...
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1376. thunderbug91 12:34 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Approaching 86 F...
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1377. presslord 12:35 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I currently live in The Carolinas; I've never visited The Virginias nor The Dakotas.


you do not, in fact, live in 'the Carolinas'....you live in what is appropriately referred to as "Lesser Carolina"...or "Carolina Lite"
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1378. presslord 12:37 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting presslord:


everything was fine when the Lords Proprietor ruled the Carolinas from Charleston...


actually....it was called simply "Carolina"
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1379. PedleyCA 12:38 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting presslord:


you do not, in fact, live in 'the Carolinas'....you live in what is appropriately referred to as "Lesser Carolina"...or "Carolina Lite"


North South Carolina.
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1380. presslord 12:39 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting PedleyCA:


North South Carolina.


exactly
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1381. ClevelandBob 12:39 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Any updates on potential-Alberto?
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1382. fireflymom 12:41 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Town of Weimer Texas has suffered a tornadic episode, hospital badly damaged.


NWS: Tornado touches down in Weimar


A tornado touchdown in Weimar caused injuries, derailed at least one train and damaged a hospital enough to prompt an evacuati
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1383. caneswatch 12:45 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Press, you and I need to have a civil discusion, on this so called Carolinas thing you have. What's wrong with it?
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1384. xcool 12:46 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
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1385. hydrus 12:47 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Someone's cruising..........
and choosing to be amusing without losing and abusing...6 days out, tail end of a front in the gulf...Instant cat-5.
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1386. hydrus 12:48 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting caneswatch:
Press, you and I need to have a civil discusion, on this so called Carolinas thing you have. What's wrong with it?
You have just invited yourself to misery and pain..:)
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1387. nigel20 12:50 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Vertical wind shear

Trop atl

Carib

GOM
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1388. entrelac 12:51 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Uploaded by TexasParksWildlife on May 19, 2011

What can old Texas trees teach us about our climate? One researcher is finding out. Follow Dr. Malcolm Cleaveland from the University of Arkansas as he taps the secrets of the cypress trees and learns the warnings they may hold for water planners. See how tree rings give clues to years of drought and floods.

See our PBS show schedule on our web site

http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/newsmedia/tv/

Thank you for posting that. It was a truly interesting piece.
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1389. aspectre 12:52 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
1362 Grothar: Where does the water in Waterspouts come from?

When a boy waterspin and a girl waterspin fall in love, they get together and have a little waterspout.
'd be pret' odd if they had a teaspout instead. That's for when two teases get together.
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1390. presslord 12:53 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting caneswatch:
Press, you and I need to have a civil discusion, on this so called Carolinas thing you have. What's wrong with it?


it's mostly just that I'm a Charleston snob...although on a serious not: it's utterly useless in predicting hurricane landfall...like saying "it's gonna hit Florida"...just meaningless....
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1391. entrelac 12:57 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Tornado Watch has been expanded. Looks like a delightful evening in Central and South Central TX.
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1392. MAweatherboy1 12:58 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
Vertical wind shear

Trop atl

Carib

GOM

Wow... That Gulf shear is very unfavorable right now
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1393. caneswatch 12:58 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting presslord:


it's mostly just that I'm a Charleston snob...although on a serious not: it's utterly useless in predicting hurricane landfall...like saying "it's gonna hit Florida"...just meaningless....


Oh I get what you're saying, combined it's huge. I get your point.

I've been to Charleston once, what a great place. I'd love to go there again soon.
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1394. thunderbug91 12:59 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow... That Gulf shear is very unfavorable right now

Could drop back down quickly again once the winds shift.
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1395. presslord 12:59 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting caneswatch:


Oh I get what you're saying, combined it's huge. I get your point.

I've been to Charleston once, what a great place. I'd love to go there again soon.


come on down...look me up
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1396. weatherh98 12:59 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
and choosing to be amusing without losing and abusing...6 days out, tail end of a front in the gulf...Instant cat-5.
Is that a.. ... ... PINHOLE EYE
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1397. thunderbug91 1:01 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:
Is that a.. ... ... PINHOLE EYE

It's gone annular already.
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1398. nigel20 1:05 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow... That Gulf shear is very unfavorable right now

Hey MA. What do you think about the possible storm being predicted by the GFS?
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1399. MAweatherboy1 1:05 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Dr. Rick Knabb with TWC has a video up on the TWC website talking about what the GFS is doing with this potential system... Basically he said the GFS runs developing the system are bogus and not to be trusted, so he's very pessimistic on development chances.
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1400. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:07 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Dr. Rick Knabb with TWC has a video up on the TWC website talking about what the GFS is doing with this potential system... Basically he said the GFS runs developing the system are bogus and not to be trusted, so he's very pessimistic on development chances.

The sad thing is, he discards it without even looking at the atmospheric pattern at the time. If he would look, he would notice that the pattern favors tropical development and that it has occurred in this pattern plenty of times before.
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1401. thunderbug91 1:09 AM GMT on May 11, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The sad thing is, he discards it without even looking at the atmospheric pattern at the time. If he would look, he would notice that the pattern favors tropical development and that it has occurred in this pattern plenty of times before.

Exactly. I have noticed the tropics love to show a blatant disregard for meteorologists as well.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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