Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.
Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.
Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index
Neutral, in my experience. I don't know what the solid consensus on this is, though.
lol :)
But keep in mind it excludes you because you haven't lived in the Tampa Bay area, or have you???
I agree probably east of Florida, since that would wrap dry air into Florida, which would be the same
Vegas is the last place you'd ever find me, yuck, clubs and casinos, what a waste of life and money...
Pretty cool ULL in the Central Atlantic on the Water Vapor.
Climate Change Threatens to Transform Mongolia
Excerpt: More Extreme Weather Puts Livestock at Risk
Hurelchuluun and Bayambaa tell him that the weather has gotten much worse in recent years, especially with unusual sudden cold and hot spells.
“Sudden cold is causing the biggest problem,” Bayambaa says. “Extreme weather… is causing the death of animals.”
The couple also complains of changing rainfall patterns. Goulden says he hears this often—that instead of gentle, light rains that might last for two or three days, the region these days mostly gets short downpours. He says locals call these “rains that don’t wet,” but that instead run off into creeks, leaving behind dry soil and poor grass.
The herders say this is a huge problem. “If the grass is not growing well,” Hurelchuluun asks, “then what the animals will eat? If the animals die, what’s the future for us?”
It’s a common lament, Goulden says. He says herders also complain that it’s gotten harder to predict the weather. They used to be able to forecast and prepare for conditions by watching things like how smoke moved away from stoves pipes, what field mice stored away in autumn, or whether ibex moved to summits or valleys in winter.
But Goulden says these omens don’t work anymore. “The weather has become much more unpredictable,” he says, “so it’s much more difficult for them to anticipate what the next winter might be”.
Complete story here:
Link
The lightning has been ferocious the last hour or so, with loud thunder accompanying it. Looks like another 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain here as well.
Fun stuff, since the wind hasn't been too bad.
One lives in hopes....
Several good studies about this are on the internet. [I.E. u can Google.] What exactly they say, can't recall right now. But IIRC, it's nuetral, la nina, el nino.
I definitely stand to be corrected on this one.
A) TS 45 MPH
B) TS 55 MPH
C) TS 65 MPH
D) Hurricane >75 MPH
Very inconsistent and atypical with what usually happens, then again, when do we ever get "normal" weather anymore...
Me too, I don't like that much dryness... I'm not saying I couldn't handle living there, I just definitely wouldn't choose to, lol.
E. OVER 9000 MPH
Although the reactor was not a secret, it was unclear if Kodak informed police and fire departments of its existence. Local authorities were also unaware of its existence.
"This device presented no radiation risk to the public or employees. Radiation from the operation was not detectable outside of the facility.
Or so they say, I wunder what the R/Hour was on the inside.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA (EP012012)
8:00 PM PDT May 14 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Aletta (1004 hPa) located at 10.5N 108.5W or 565 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 11.1N 112.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.7N 116.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 12.0N 119.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205150300
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Link
I'd say at my house we got between 2-3 inches of rain today. Lots more tomorrow.
Goodnight everybody!
It looks like its loosing the intensity of her convection.
Is that anything like "losing the integrity of her conviction"?
The 3 man Soyuz Launch to the ISS was successful as the crew has entered Orbit on time.
I'm off as well... got a deadline on some work I need to get done and want to finish it before I get into bed.
I'll prolly check in on Aletta around 2 a.m. EDT.
And one of the three is from PR,Joseph Acaba.
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
But MaximumSustainedWinds have fallen from 35knots(40mph)65k/h to 30knots(35mph)56k/h
And travel speed has increased from 7.3knots(8.5mph)13.7k/h to 11.1knots(12.8mph)20.5k/h
ie At DiurnalMinimum, 92L was travelling so fast compared to it's maximum winds that it is unlikely to intensify, and more likely to blow itself out into a fully extratropical state... or to dissipate
The first 24hours of line-segments have been erased cuz otherwise the path is too snarled to explain,
but for those who still like to keep track of 92L's meanderings
The northernmost unconnected&unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The western endcap-dot of the connected line-segments is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 228miles(366kilometres)
Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w, 33.3n33.6w-32.9n33.2w, 32.9n33.2w-32.6n32.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Yeah I guess the minions weren't so bad, I hate king Kai the most, he sounds like Congressman Barney Frank too, lol.
haha yes! its Ironic Because I was born in the Arizona Desert, very close to Mexico actually :)
I moved the Florida when I was around 4 and I'm 21 now, so I might as well be a Florida native.
BTW, I don't know that much about the Climate in the Bahamas, what is it like?
So was he allowed to bring aboard a herd of coquis, or does Acaba hafta suffer in silence?
I read the press release the senator issued. It really didn't say anything new. He could have issued the press release without going to Japan. It certainly doesn't make for the sensational story you quoted earlier.
"Sitting at the top of [Reactor 4], in a pool that is cracked, leaking and precarious even without an earthquake, are 1,565 fuel rods (give or take a few), some of them fresh fuel that was ready to go into the reactor on the morning of March 11 when the earthquake and tsunami hit, writes Consolo.
If they are MOX fuel, containing six percent plutonium, one fuel rod has the potential to kill 2.89 billion people."
Those are Christina Consolo's words. The article echoing them slid them in to a story purportedly about the senator's letter to the Japanese government. That's something I'd expect to see from WUWT.
Where is a good link where the "kill 2.89 billion people" claim Consolo makes would be discussed by knowledgeable people? For instance, how would the plutonium get from where it is to where the 2.89 billion people live? I don't know anyone on this blog able to comment on that.
The lack of good info from the Japanese government allows off-base stories like this to get repeated without anyone questioning them.
I don't see a good discussion on that site. Lots of concerned folks, but that's to be expected.
Yes :)
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=480 200&page=827
Thanks! I think there are more forums like this, but this looks like a good one.
Daily updates on the situation
"There are several threads related to the disaster:
Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants - technical aspects of the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP (and other plants).
The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific one - discussion about the way crisis was managed both by engineers/management at place and Japanese government.
Fukushima Management and Government Performance
Why is Fukushima nuclear crisis so threatening?
Fukushima radiation detection and measurement
Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP
Please keep your posts in each thread on topic."
That was posted by Borek, a Physics Forum administrator.
Thanks for those links...
We are just seeing for the moment the tip of the iceberg.... The nuclear industry has lots of power.... For the moment there are just a few standing and exposing the truth behind it... specially with Fukushima.
It is a fact that TepCo and the government has lied since the first day.
North Tokio is contaminated, that is a proven fact...
Unit no. 4 has enough nuclear material inside an open pool 100 feet over the ground inside a partially destroyed building.... that is also a fact...
In a matter of weeks, maybe a couple of months we will see more discussions related.. Hope doen't happens too late...
well they are saying neutral till about mid season then goes to el nino but looking that curent conditions and forecast I say Neutral for now then it goes to warm/en nino neutral by mid season but then turns back to cool/la nina neutral by end season
"To the rest of people, probably most, it [a news release from TEPCO] just produced a vague message of some mildly good news from the plant, for a change. Soothe the many into passivity, let a few ill-informed destroy their own credibility with scare stories, get on with whatever you now have sanctity to be doing, and if you are called on the facts, 'you didn't mean it that way' Looked upon as a piece of technology propaganda, this was technically a masterpiece."
In a post by MadderDoc.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA (EP012012)
2:00 AM PDT May 15 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: ALETTA MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Aletta (1004 hPa) located at 10.8N 108.7W or 555 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 11.4N 112.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.9N 116.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 12.5N 119.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Cooler air aloft may have made the Carolina storms more severe. Heavy thunderstorms occur regularly in FL and are not warned. eg, it's unusual to get hail in FL, but more so in NC.
I have seen more hail in the UK, I've seen hail in FL two times in 13 years.
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index