Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

+31

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.

Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.

Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)

Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS

Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)

Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.

Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)

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651. etxwx 3:08 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Explaining uneven rise in sea levels Excerpt: If there is a global warming trend, one of its consequences would a rise in sea levels, which will require massive mitigation efforts to protect coastal infrastructure; rather than a uniform rise in sea level, however, the records show sea levels rising in some areas and dropping in others; Harvard researchers offer an explanation for this phenomenon. Link Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 680

652. NCHurricane2009 3:10 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
I have a hot-of-press detailed tropical Atlantic blog update out...not much big news obviously with Alberto diminishing...but you can see what is going on in all corners of the Atlantic tonight thru this update.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

654. blsealevel 3:14 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting etxwx: Explaining uneven rise in sea levels Excerpt: If there is a global warming trend, one of its consequences would a rise in sea levels, which will require massive mitigation efforts to protect coastal infrastructure; rather than a uniform rise in sea level, however, the records show sea levels rising in some areas and dropping in others; Harvard researchers offer an explanation for this phenomenon. Link Well they do have the tools right? I just hope they arnt making ths stuff up for the grant money Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

655. wxmod 3:18 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Jets polluting the sky over the Atlantic way north off Canada. MODIS satellite photos today. Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1232

656. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:20 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
< Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40613

665. NCHurricane2009 3:24 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting blsealevel: And this is intresting also I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge. As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low. I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area. Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

673. wxmod 3:25 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting blsealevel: A lot of dust over their right now I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that. Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1232

677. sunlinepr 3:26 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

682. MTWX 3:30 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :( Got the tripod here, just not the camera! Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

683. txjac 3:31 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting MTWX: Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :( Got the tripod here, just not the camera! Where are you at? Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

684. TomTaylor 3:31 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Prospects are very negative against anything forming in the WCARB. This is a fragile system you guys are looking at, monsoonal circulations require room and growth with at least decent environment. 40kt windshear is sitting over it, and there is absolutely no model support to indicate that this won't just dissipate on Wednesday. Interesting to look at, but unlikely to mature into anything. Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity. Chances of this happening at this point are pretty low due to a lack of model support. If anything comes out of it, it would be pretty weak, like Alberto. Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Tropical Depression Three-W has an eye popping out on visible imagery. This is no tropical depression anymore either. Where is the eyewall? Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3903

686. sunlinepr 3:31 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod: I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that. That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment.... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

687. MTWX 3:33 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting txjac: Where are you at? Columbus, MS Tried to get some shots with my phone, but I knew that was a long shot! Really need the exposure time! Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

688. sunlinepr 3:34 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor: Where is the eyewall? Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

689. NCHurricane2009 3:34 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr: That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment.... Sounds typical for early in the year...isn't the SAL (saharan air layer) always strongest when the African Easterly Jet just begins kicking in when the sub-Saharan land is still dry and dusty? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

691. NCHurricane2009 3:36 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor: Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low gets cut off by a building ridge over the east us. Where is the eyewall? Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol That west-pac storm (Sanvu) looks really cool...wish it were in the Atlantic side though.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

692. wunderkidcayman 3:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge. As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low. I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area. #1 upper ridge is located in honduras at around 16N 87/88W moving ENE #2lowest pressures are in the GOH near rotan hondurason caye belize Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

697. wunderkidcayman 3:53 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor: Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity. Where is the eyewall? Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol #1 there is somewhat model support #2 shear is not that high at all and is falling #3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together #4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

698. JLPR2 3:54 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod: I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that. Come on dust! Give me beach weather! XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

699. WxGeekVA 3:59 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Well, good night folks! I have now discovered the joy of editing storm info on Wikipedia! Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3322

700. nigel20 4:00 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Good day fellow bloggers! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4541

701. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:01 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
XX/INV/XL MARK 15.55N/82.33W Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40613

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