Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Should make landfall late tomorrow night into Monday morning. It has time to strengthen 10-20 knots.
I don't know if this means anything yet.. Both the last snow and tornado seasons started off with an early and historic start and just sort of trailed off later on.
Link
Florida State University for their Meteorology program.
Make sure you guys have the math skill if you go that route, I started as a met major but struggled as I got into more advanced Math classes...now im taking the Emergency Management track...plans change unfortunately. It's a shame because i love applied math, but just plugging and chugging is not my thing.
Sorry, not going back 200 posts, I am not THAT dedicated. If you already said that, good 4 U.
Also indication that Beryl is overcoming the ULL. Cold dry air is what fuels them. Cut it off and poof, just like warm moist air into a tropical system.
i am a math expert.
Just got to start calculus
click image for Loop
ZOOM is available
Fervently articulated, Cosmic! ;)
C2? Only if the stall lingers over warmer waters and it fully detaches from the front. Let's hope for a generous rainmaker, but not overly generous to any one area.
Tomorrow
82 °F
T-storms
80% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm Beryl Tomorrow Night
70 °F
T-storms
70% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm Beryl Monday
86 | 72 °F
T-storms
70% chance of precipitation
Tropical Depression Beryl Tuesday
86 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Tropical Depression Beryl Wednesday
86 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
Anyway, dry air has been mixing out of the core of the storm throughout the day and now looks pretty good:
You're headed toward the right places.
Greetings from another longtime lurker in Georgia! I really appreciate the knowledge that so many share on here. I'm in Richmond Hill, close to the Ogeechee River (tidal) and about 12 miles from the ocean.
Nice stuff. FSU sounds awesome to me but I will probably try to stay in-state for cheaper tuition. GA Tech seems like the best in-state option (if you're in GA of course) for an atmospheric/physical/space science degree, even though its main attraction is its engineering program.
50, 998
I dont see landfall being that early on Sunday
thats only 11 hours from now
Nice to have you on board and love your handle; my family has bought several nice palm-leaf baskets in your neck of the woods driving up the Florida coast on the way to Savannah or Charleston....A little expensive though for the larger ones....... :)
FSU!!
300 mb in the pink.
500 mb in the brown.
700 mb in the green.
850 mb in the light blue.
Surface in the dark blue.
No way! That's my idea as well :D
Seems everyone wants to go to FSU now.
Greetings! Looks like we're still in the crosshairs! Though, right now, it couldn't be a more beautiful afternoon!
Doesn't that map show landfall around 2AM Monday? Unless I'm reading it wrong.
Isn't the mission over?
the forecast map from bay news 9 has it just offshore at 601am Sunday morning
Educate me and humor me for a moment.
If they are skeptical about even making this a TS instead of a STS, Why would you think it's going to make Cat 1 before it hits?
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