Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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Not gonna see the NHC budge with this warm aloft and cool at the surface.
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
ULL is keeping shear low, but upper divergence is suffering from that ULL. Maybe as it get's more over the gulf stream the warm waters will allow convection to fire more and push off that ULL, warming the core, making it a truly tropical system. Although there is also a bit of dry air at the mid levels around the storm. People have been noting the higher dew points off the east coast as compared to when Alberto was around. However, if we look at the mid level, it is a quite a bit drier. 12z sounding out of North Carolina shows the large amount of dry air in the mid to upper levels.
Sounding from South Carolina is a little better, but there's still some pretty dry air in the mid levels.
WV satellite image also shows the dry air.
It's a TIME WARP!
The center still does seem kind of void.
The dry air in the system, however, is being choked off.
lol.
well you see this is the YEAR OF DOOM!!!
So I forget it's 2012 (but Im conscious about it) and I continue to be in 2011 until we get to 2014.. I hate # 13 so next year (if we get to it) is 2013.
The format the Weather Service uses for communicating many of its notices to private weather enterprises has traditionally been all-uppercase missives with messages separated by ellipses.
"It's been a challenge for private weather enteprises to grab that data in any way to add value by repackaging it and selling it in the form of apps," said Susan Buchanan, spokesperson for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"Now it will be a lot easier for developers to make applications," updating a process that has existed since the age of the teletype, she explained.
http://techpresident.com/news/22243/national-weat her-service-upgrading-new-alerting-protocol-redesi gning-website
02L/STS/B/CX
MARK
31.45N/76.63W
lol
Wait, I thought the NWS was in Peachtree City. Do they have a branch of it or something in GA Tech?
WTNT32 KNHC 262345
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT BERYL IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 76.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...145 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
I am REALLY glad I don't live in Savannah anymore. Keep calling my friends there and warning them - no one seems to worried about it...no one making any plans. Richmond Hill (just south of Sav, about an hour north of Jax) would flood in heavy rains. Right on the river. Folks just don't seem to think twice about it. Everyone stay safe! I may not live there any more but I still worry about everyone in the path of a storm.
yeah..umm you're kinda late for it
DMIN must be really affecting it. Wait till its over the gulf stream and then DMAX tomorrow.
Wait, what? I would've thought it was warm at the surface and cold up in the air.
Virtually the same thing from 4am
I'm still at 1.375 from Alberto... and you are just wasting time and delaying me
Sounds Good enough, to me.
Hi Pottery!
from 23:32
No the one in Tallahassee.
The GA one is in Peachtree City, i am visiting there (again) with the meteorology club we started on wednesday
yes ma'am....was a good trip
Good to see you!
Sunshine and brisk trades down here today.
Place is drying out nicely after a very wet dry season.
And the wet starts soon again.....
No problem with that.
Sure does look like an eye has formed????
perhaps discussing...
The Beryl Con Under Rhum
? : )
Press - glad to hear you have everything taken care of.
Pottery - hope things "desog" and you get to enjoy!
Excellent!
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