Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's most recent position is 31.0n76.9w
Its vector had changed from SWest at ~4.6mph(7.3km/h to SWest at ~9.1mph(14.7km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~40knots(46mph)74km/h to ~45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1001millibars to 998millibars
For those who like to visually track STS.Beryl's path...
EYW is KeyWest . FPR is FortPierce . COI is MerrittIsland . GGE is Georgetown,S.Carolina
The kinked line is as much of 94Ls path as would fit on this particular map scale
The Northernmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94L became SubTropicalStormBeryl
The NEasternmost dot on the longest straight line-segment was STS.Beryl's most recent position
The longest coast-to-sea line-segment is a straightline-projection
through STS.Beryl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The C0I dumbbell was the endpoint of the 26May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
The FPR dumbbell was the endpoint* of the 26May6pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 27May12amGMT, STS.Beryl was headed toward passing over WhiteCity,Florida in ~1day10hours from now
Copy&paste eyw, fpr-27.39n80.26w, coi-28.3779n80.6w, gge-33.292n79.172w, 25.1n80.1w, 26.5n78.7w, 28.1n78.1w, 30.0n75.6w, 31.2n75.1w, 32.3n74.9w, 32.3n74.9w-32.4n75.3w, 32.4n75.3w-31.9n76.0w, 31.9n76.0w-31.6n76.3w, 31.6n76.3w-31.0n76.9w, 31.6n76.3w-27.426n80.274 into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
* For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 25.1n80.1w and the first 32.3n74.9w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 32.3n74.9w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03..24 hours..
A yes
B no
Evenin' everyone. Watching Jaws and tracking Baryl...(a bit of rum would make it even better)
Good deal, things are well here in the Carolinas as well :P
a. STS
b. TS
I would say TS. 100% positive. Taz posted something that it said TS (I think) and the cross section thing that someone else posted I think has it as a TS and someone else said she is finishing up her transition.
no
Is it Sub-Tropical or Tropical, this one is puzzling... I thought it was attaining tropical characteristics..
Beryl
Beryl is not going to form a new COC.
I see nothing. .-.
The popcorn convection has done nothing in the way of helping the transition.
then she better start moving west !!!
You cant be absolutley 100% positive. And its not transitioning to tropical. Just because clouds wrap around a center doesn't mean its tropical. Plus posts 926 and 905 prove its subtropical. And no one said it was tropical. They WISH it was tropical.
Could see some mischief in the NW/W Caribbean by as early as Monday.
she need to start moving west right now to follow those tracks.
Carry on.
I Would Delete or Edit your comment, Once Admin see's what you wrote, you will get a perma-ban.
The plots above were calculated using the four plots below.
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I think it will come in South of Jacksonville. Look at the clouds to the SW of Beryl, they are moving SW.
As it says in #4, I'm only 12. I'm not allowed to see that stuff.
O.o LOL.
having fun
Playing "Guess the hurricane" and other stuff. :P
What a shallow, shallow system...even with the new Dvorak number in they might still keep this STS.
I set my prediction yesterday to St. Augustine, and I find no reason to change that. Wouldn't even be surprised if it makes landfall in my county, Flagler.
Viewing: 951 - 1001
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