Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index
Remember how K came in Aug 05 in Fla on the up-tick.
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 30.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL
24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 30.8N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 31.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 41.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
That is the 5:00 am advisory. We need something new!!!
Would be better if all the names were doom...
Apocalypse
Bombardment
Cavalry
Death
End
Frigate
Grenadier
Hunter
Infantry
J
Kamikaze
Lancer
Missile
O
Pirate
Raid
Soldier
Tank
Viking
W
That's all I can manage in 5 minutes. :P
We've pulled in the patio furniture and potted plants. We're getting decent winds and rain bands now. Looks like we're going to be just on the north side of the eye at landfall, so hope it doesn't get any worse.
:) I hear ya, hopefully you won't get too many opportunities to draw those squiggly lines this year.
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.
Fixed, sorry!
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI
According to Jax Pier cam (which I can see from my balcony), the winds are currently out of the north at 11 mph.
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Beryl is doing what she wants to do..Stay safe and heed your warnings!
I think so.
Keep us updated. And stay safe. Tropical Storm Winds will arrive shortly at your location.
The New York Weather service in Buffalo is like that, because they actually name their lake effect snowstorms after random topics.
i.e.
2010-2011 lake effect storms were named after "Fish"
2009-2010: Flowers
2008-2009: Snakes
2007-2008: Dogs
2006-2007: insects
ect...
I think this year was types of cows, so the names were: Ayrshire, Beefalo, Canadienne, Dutch Belted, Evolene, ect..
Lake Effect Storm Copernicus from 2002 when the list was after "Famous Scientists"
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakepage.php
Apocalypse
Bombardment
Cavalry
Death
End
Frigate
Grenadier
Hunter
Infantry
J
Kamikaze
Lancer
Missile
O
Pirate
Raid
Soldier
Tank
Viking
W
the o could be O"SH.T!!!!!!!!!!
It's OK, Geek. We all have these days. This morning I put my wife out and made breakfast for my dog.
it already is in the gulf stream, it is nearing the cooler waters, if it was further south, it would have a better chance of intensifying because the cool shelf is not as large
The good thing about dogs is that unlike a wife, if you lock the dog and Wife accidently in the Garage, when you find them later, least the dog will give ya a big Kiss.
RBTOP Image
And talk about Beryl
Trackwise though...I was still off...
I will be putting another update out around 1:00 PM this afternoon with an updated Beryl forecast included....
LOL!
Link
I still like my track forecast created upon naming:
(click to enlarge)
It did a Beryl Roll.
Good advice, Pat. Wish that people would heed it more often. Called back to my friends and no one is really taking it very seriously. No preps, nothing. They are about an hour north of Jax and live on the river. Ugh.
Viewing: 1751 - 1801
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index