Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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2815. RTSplayer
9:27 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still got some 20-25 kt winds offshore, but overall, Beryl is not a significant concern for winds anymore.




Yeah. They should really learn to narrow their numbers down...


That's because they are uncertain about neutral vs el nino.

The longer the neutral or near-neutral lasts, the more storms, on average.

That's why I had 15 to 16.

Average for el nino is 12

Average for neutral is 18.

Half of neutral plus half of el nino is 15.

Two thirds of neutral plus one third of el nino is 16.


So I figured 15 to 16 named storms.


Very unprofessional, but very simple.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2814. RTSplayer
6:59 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Beryl's tap on the Gulf isn't quite what I expected, but it has managed to fill in the south side a bit more solidly with a nice shield of rain.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2813. dearmas
5:07 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
NICE downpour here in Wesley Cahpel FL

LOVE ITTTTT!!!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
2812. hydrus
4:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with your forecast, hydrus. I expect we may have less activity in October and November, but otherwise I recall that warm-neutral seasons tend to be more rather than less active. And while neither Alberto nor Beryl were what one would think of as "normal" TSs in terms of their cyclogenesis, the fact that they both formed this early in the year - in the pre-season, to be accurate - suggests that the west side of the basin is going to be more prone to activity and development throughout the season. Meanwhile, I don't see any evidence so far to suggest that we won't see the average number of Twaves departing the African coast.

Whatever happens, it looks to be an interesting season, with a potentially active JAS period.
El-nino has most of its influence on the Main Development Region south of 25 north and the eastern half of the Caribbean. Most late season storms form closer to home where Nino has little if any impact. I believe there will be strong late season storms too....Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22314
2811. lobdelse81
4:05 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
T-minus 4 days till June 1st :)
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
2810. RTSplayer
4:02 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
I think there's a significant deflection northwards in Beryl's motion, so it may be turning even earlier than thought now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2809. luvtogolf
3:51 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Wrong. I posted Crown Weathers forecast that 94l would become Beryl exactly where it formed. He scoffed at it basically saying "bla bla bla".
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1288
2808. WxGeekVA
3:50 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration


I had my eye on it, and I was posting the GFS model runs, but I never said that Beryl would develop until Wednesday when it was apparent that it would.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
2807. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:49 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...

Nice timing...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
2806. GTcooliebai
3:48 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...
Right when you type that we get a new blog.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2805. MississippiWx
3:48 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
d
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2804. BahaHurican
3:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
2803. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2802. BahaHurican
3:46 PM GMT on May 28, 2012



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
2801. MississippiWx
3:45 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Oh really? Guess I should have looked at the definitions a bit more before posting lol.

I suspect we'll oscillate around generally neutral conditions for the next two or three years. Had 2 strong La Ninas very close together so could be a while before the next one.


Yeah, weak El Nino is 0.5-0.9C, moderate 1.0-1.4C, and strong 1.5C+.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2800. NICycloneChaser
3:44 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Vorticity in the SW Carribean is actually on the decrease. Don't see anything developing down there, at least not any time soon.

Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
2799. GTcooliebai
3:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..
At times 94L was battling 70 knots of shear and I thought it would be ripped apart, but I said well lets give it a couple of days and see what it looks like afterall anything is possible in the tropics. The models had a good handle on this system in regards to development and track imo, so that is what persuaded me not to give up on this storm.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2798. washingtonian115
3:42 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
May 28th anomalies are out...El Nino is making progress:

But not fast progress :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
2797. MississippiWx
3:42 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Yeah, he never claimed that it would develop once in the Atlantic. He was all about it developing in the Caribbean. I never saw anyone argue with him about it developing once in the Atlantic.

Edit: He might have said it would develop in the Atlantic, but the argument was all about the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2796. LargoFl
3:42 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
JACKSONVILLE, FL (WAWS/CNN) - Jacksonville is in a state of emergency right now and the mayor has asked everyone to stay inside because of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Also, the beaches have been closed because of strong surf coming in off the Atlantic Ocean.

There are some reports of damage in Jacksonville, FL, including a roof blown off a house.

There are 18,000 to 20,000 people reportedly without power in the city because trees and power lines have come down.

A big concern is flooding because of high tide and that could flood some of the rivers.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
2795. Hurricanes305
3:41 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Thats the thrill of tracking storms you dont know exactly what will happen next.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
2794. NICycloneChaser
3:41 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:


That would be a strong El Nino.


Oh really? Guess I should have looked at the definitions a bit more before posting lol.

I suspect we'll oscillate around generally neutral conditions for the next two or three years. Had 2 strong La Ninas very close together so could be a while before the next one.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
2793. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..

That was the whole point of the argument. I was one to argue with him. I never said it wouldn't develop, I just simply said it wouldn't develop while in the Caribbean because wind shear was too high there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
2792. RussianWinter
3:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
He was here this morning if you scroll back a page or two. He noticed the flare-up off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras which has since waned.


It may be down but it's not out.
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2791. LargoFl
3:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Jacksonville traffic Cams..........Link
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2790. BahaHurican
3:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!
It'll be interesting to see if the first "in-season" storms do form there. However, I have come to expect early season storms, especially in June, to form in the same area where we saw the blow-up last night, off the coast of Central America in that monsoonal gyre that often sets up there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
2789. LargoFl
3:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:




Your Comment:



Rich Text. ..........Jacksonville Traffic Cams



 



Submit Cancel




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
2788. LargoFl
3:38 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
...........Jacksonville Traffic Cams
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
2787. GTcooliebai
3:37 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes where is he?.
He was here this morning if you scroll back a page or two. He noticed the flare-up off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras which has since waned.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2786. MississippiWx
3:37 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
May 28th anomalies are out...El Nino is making progress:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2785. Hurricanes305
3:36 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Going to be interesting to see what happens going into next year. Lots of similarities to 2007-2009 here.

2007/2010 - Strong La Nina develops during the season.
2008/2011 - Second year La Nina, still fairly strong.
2009/2012 - Weak El Nino develops during summer, peaks in the winter.

Back into a new La Nina next year?


Did 2004 and 2009 have a weak El Nino those years which transition into really actives seasons the next year.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
2784. Neapolitan
3:36 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting help4u:
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.
I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day. ;-)

I've been off for a while; has anyone predicted that, since we're already two storms ahead of 2005 at this point, 2012 is on track to see 30 named storms? Just kidding. But seriously, I've heard talk of moving the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season back two weeks, and there may be justification for that; over the past seven seasons (counting this year), as many storms have formed in May--four--as have formed in June.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
2783. MAweatherboy1
3:36 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!

The GOM has been a desert for the last month... I don't see anything forming there until the start of July at this point... I think anything that forms in June would form in the SW Caribbean or off the SE coast like Alberto and Beryl.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
2782. ncstorm
3:36 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2781. MississippiWx
3:35 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:




2009

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.6

It peaked at +1.6 degrees, which is probably classed as a low-end moderate El Nino.


That would be a strong El Nino.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2780. BahaHurican
3:35 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
We may get only 12 more, which would fit the prognostication of an "average" season. However, I don't think anybody anticipated 2 named storms before June.

We shall see.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
2779. weatherh98
3:35 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.


We were all focused on Alberto and then you look and see a post like this


BLOB STRENGTHENING IN THE GOH FLORIDA WATCH OUT

at least he kept tabs so we could see
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
2778. MAweatherboy1
3:34 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.

Well we're already at one before the season even starts so it looks that way.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
2777. GTcooliebai
3:34 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
As the old saying goes, "It only takes one to make it a bad season."
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2776. ncstorm
3:33 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2775. NICycloneChaser
3:33 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a weak-moderate one.


2009

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.6

It peaked at +1.6 degrees, which is probably classed as a low-end moderate El Nino.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
2774. washingtonian115
3:33 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.
Yes where is he?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
2773. AllStar17
3:33 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge image; images can further be enlarged in Link window)

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
2772. BrickellBreeze
3:32 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with your forecast, hydrus. I expect we may have less activity in October and November, but otherwise I recall that warm-neutral seasons tend to be more rather than less active. And while neither Alberto nor Beryl were what one would think of as "normal" TSs in terms of their cyclogenesis, the fact that they both formed this early in the year - in the pre-season, to be accurate - suggests that the west side of the basin is going to be more prone to activity and development throughout the season. Meanwhile, I don't see any evidence so far to suggest that we won't see the average number of Twaves departing the African coast.

Whatever happens, it looks to be an interesting season, with a potentially active JAS period.


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
2771. GTcooliebai
3:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2770. washingtonian115
3:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
I think by September of 2009 it was a moderate El nino and then a strong one during the winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
2769. BahaHurican
3:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or the other way around, since they seem to think Grand Cayman is in the Bahamas somewhere... lol
Maybe they think we r one nation, under rain... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
2768. ncstorm
3:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2012

the track keeps moving back and forth..if this comes out to the water than staying over land, then you have a storm riding up the east coast in a the gulf stream
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2767. ncstorm
3:30 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2766. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:29 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.

It was a weak-moderate one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
2765. NICycloneChaser
3:29 PM GMT on May 28, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.


It wasn't a very weak one, but not moderate/strong.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.