Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It does sound that way from the HPC discussion. But I like Houston's better. And they don't seem to match.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY DRAPED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AND COAST WITH OUTFLOW OUT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
DRIFTING OVER THE SW ZONES AND GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA ONE DAY OF DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH BACK
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE POISED OFFSHORE AND
THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. AN UPPER LOW
EAST OF BAJA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST STALL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RICH TROPICAL
TAP SETS UP COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER E TX TO NE MEXICO.
Excerpt:
This year's forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; a measure of the strength and duration of storms) of 122. These numbers are based on 51 individual seasonal forecasts conducted since May 25, 2012 using sea surface temperatures predicted by NOAA.
NWS, Wilmington, NC
FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT
RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE....pouring rain by me for the last hour
Gila National Park is a rare and beautiful park...so sad
I was born in Albuquerque and have been there often.
We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.
That report helps me understand alot more.
CSU is giving Florida the highest probabilities for a hurricane and major hurricane landfall at 47% and 19%, respectively. Second is Texas with 30% and 11%, respectively. Louisiana and North Carolina follow right behind.
if there is uncertainty with the phase of ENSO, how can they FORESEE below average activity?
Link
Really confusing analogs, 2 above average seasons and 2 below average seasons. They average out to..guess what! An average season, and that's their reasoning for picking them.
Except for Sarasota. Rain has set up both north and south of us. I hope it will eventually fill the gap and bring us much needed rain.
NOAA: Carbon dioxide levels reach milestone at Arctic sites
NOAA cooperative measurements in remote, northern sites hit greenhouse gas milestone in April
May 31, 2012
Contact: Katy Human, 303-497-4747
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Barrow, Alaska, reached 400 parts per million (ppm) this spring, according to NOAA measurements, the first time a monthly average measurement for the greenhouse gas attained the 400 ppm mark in a remote location.
LINK
" Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas. NOAA calculates the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index every year, which takes into account the heating effects of other gases that are emitted from human activities (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, and chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons) When those gases are also considered, the global atmosphere reached a CO2 equivalent concentration of 400 ppm in 1985; and 450 ppm in 2003. Atmospheric CO2 levels are currently higher than they have been at any time during the last 800,000 years."
Don't argue with wxmod. Its like trying to put out a fire with gasoline and lighter fluid.
There are trends, and patterns - the trick is finding those trends and patterns, then interpreting them.
Look at poor Florida. :P
CSU is projecting 13 named stroms; actaully they take the two in May and forecast 11 during the normal hurricane season- up from their April forecast of 10 for the season.
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