Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

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Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

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Choo choo...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
92L could have been a very dangerous storm with this kind of track.

Supposed to track just north of the islands, then the high builds in overhead bringing this westward.

The TUTT will significantly impact this system as it nears the CATL. I don't think we'll see much more than a weak TS out of this based on current obs.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
6Z is 6AM 12Z is 12PM 18Z is 8PM 00Z is 12AM
Quoting bythegraceofgod:
How often is GFS updated? I live in South Mississippi so keeping a close eye on everything.
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Quoting bythegraceofgod:
How often is GFS updated? I live in South Mississippi so keeping a close eye on everything.


4 times a day
00z
06z
12z
18z
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Erneso is back over open waters and may strengthen some before landfall. Invest 92L has become much better organized and probably deserves at least 40% right now. Ex-Florence is pushing through very high wind shear and will be in a favorable environment in two days or so...it will need to be watched for regeneration at that time.

And then there is the absolute beast of a wave over West Africa. The NHC will need to circle this area soon, as it will likely become a tropical storm right after emerging. The long term fare is obviously unclear, but the GFS continually keeps it west until it's west of Bermuda.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the GFS ensemble spread for the potential storm off Africa:



It's still really early to be looking at where this thing will go since we don't even have a storm yet, but IMO a recurve out to sea is the most likely scenario. The GFS ensemble mean also shows that high pressure eroding and getting pushed way back, more than enough to allow for a recurve... I think the Euro has had the right idea with the high placement and the operational 12z GFS came around to the idea. I think we'll see it start to do that more consistently in future runs.



This is what i'm talking about once you see one storm push against that high you can count on all the rest going out to sea.
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How often is GFS updated? I live in South Mississippi so keeping a close eye on everything.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the GFS ensemble spread for the potential storm off Africa:



It's still really early to be looking at where this thing will go since we don't even have a storm yet, but IMO a recurve out to sea is the most likely scenario. The GFS ensemble mean also shows that high pressure eroding and getting pushed way back, more than enough to allow for a recurve... I think the Euro has had the right idea with the high placement and the operational 12z GFS came around to the idea. I think we'll see it start to do that more consistently in future runs.


Nothing is "more likely" at this time. Everytime a strong system comes off Africa does not mean it's gonna recurve.. It depends on the pattern and right now, I just don't see an easy recurve.. Maybe around Bermuda.
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Quoting Patrap:
All images have a source page.

Always identify a pic for continuity and this never occurs been my sperience.


My sperience is I never post images on this page cus if it is important enough to post it will be reposted.

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This is from CIMSS SAT .-Since the Moon was in the Waning Gibbous phase (61% of full), there was enough reflected moonlight to allow a Suomi NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band image (below) to reveal the well-defined circulation of Ernesto as it was moving inland across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at 06:54 UTC (1:54 am local time). Note the bright areas of city lights along the coastal areas (most notably Campeche, Merida, and Cancun) that could be seen through the relatively thin edges of the cirrus canopy.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21180
Quoting allancalderini:
Is that 92L it looks really good?


Yep. Organization has increased dramatically since last night.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Nice anticyclone associated with 92L.



Vort has increased nicely as well.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
I hope everyone discouts the GFS runs for the track long term because it has Gordon forming north of the CV Islands which wont be true because the wave will emerge SOUTH of the islands so once the wave comes out then we should look carefully at the long term path
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That looks like 100mph wind damage. I think the NHC should have sent out a HH to investigate Ernesto before landfall.


Didn't they say they had "technical issues"? Perhaps it was just laziness; they seem to be having technical issues a lot lately.

Ernesto's structure may allow for some pretty rapid restrengthening, as he's finally taking a dip in the Bay.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the GFS ensemble spread for the potential storm off Africa:



It's still really early to be looking at where this thing will go since we don't even have a storm yet, but IMO a recurve out to sea is the most likely scenario. The GFS ensemble mean also shows that high pressure eroding and getting pushed way back, more than enough to allow for a recurve... I think the Euro has had the right idea with the high placement and the operational 12z GFS came around to the idea. I think we'll see it start to do that more consistently in future runs.
I agree.. I will keep a watchful eye on the Bermuda High. Sometimes it will nose a storm closer to the U.S. then originally predicted. Even with a strong trough along the east coast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21180
731. CJ5
92l will be the talk of the town tomorrow. It has steadily built itself back up all day and is now looking impressive. Flo has been the only disappointment thus far.
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Quoting Patrap:
19:15 UTC


Because of the great structure, could RI be possible?
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Maybe I need to take a compass course. I have never been good with them. But if I can look out a window while there is some daylight I can tell what direction I am facing. I have always been really good with directions and reading maps. Now my husband, forget it.
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by 2080........( world wars in the past have been started over less)..........this is scary.....Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The wave behind 92L may have to forget about being named Gordon.

Is that 92L it looks really good?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4311
19:15 UTC

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The wave behind 92L may have to forget about being named Gordon.


Both want the name real bad.
WE'll have to see who wins the battle
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Quoting Kumo:


That is a pretty cool site, makes me wonder if our atmosphere would support the kind of storms they think could happen in 2045. Isn't 190mph sustained winds the top end for the worst of the worst TCs?
..oh yes it was a Great site and some of the predictions are awesome..some are very troubling, there is a video of this prediction site on youtube which i watched also...also troubling is the water shortage thing..which..the UN thinks is going to be real
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the GFS ensemble spread for the potential storm off Africa:



It's still really early to be looking at where this thing will go since we don't even have a storm yet, but IMO a recurve out to sea is the most likely scenario. The GFS ensemble mean also shows that high pressure eroding and getting pushed way back, more than enough to allow for a recurve... I think the Euro has had the right idea with the high placement and the operational 12z GFS came around to the idea. I think we'll see it start to do that more consistently in future runs.

i disagree. if you look closely at the operation runs they show the jetstream ZONAL instead of a trough digging in and erioding the ridge. remember the wave didnt even come off Africa! once it comes off africa we should get a little better grip on the track
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Nothing that Im aware of..


ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)

Current Storms:

Invest92
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21180
Here's the GFS ensemble spread for the potential storm off Africa:



It's still really early to be looking at where this thing will go since we don't even have a storm yet, but IMO a recurve out to sea is the most likely scenario. The GFS ensemble mean also shows that high pressure eroding and getting pushed way back, more than enough to allow for a recurve... I think the Euro has had the right idea with the high placement and the operational 12z GFS came around to the idea. I think we'll see it start to do that more consistently in future runs.
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The wave behind 92L may have to forget about being named Gordon.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
The center is right on the coast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21180
717. Kumo
Quoting LargoFl:
hey guys..want a good look..into the future?..really enjoyed this site..just keep scrolling down the page as the years go by..........................Link


That is a pretty cool site, makes me wonder if our atmosphere would support the kind of storms they think could happen in 2045. Isn't 190mph sustained winds the top end for the worst of the worst TCs?
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Quoting sar2401:


A compass is still better than the best sense of direction. :) Did you see my P.S. about ham radio? I'd never go storm chasing without one, especially since most young people can pass the test with a few hours of study. The Skywarn repeaters cover almost everywhere on the plains, and they are your best source of real-time information. If you actually see a tornado on the ground, reporting it to a Skywarn net controller will get it to the nearest NWS office a lot faster than a phone call. They can also help vector you if you should lose your broadband in the car, something that's happened to me on more than one occasion.
That has always scared me when I have been visiting tornado country. They tell you which direction it is coming from, but I have NO CLUE! Also, which towns are being affected and I have no idea where the town I am located is in relation to the other towns. Can be real scary! So Maps of the local area as well.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Chart-busting 2012 temperatures in Lower 48 and Washington, D.C.


Temperatures so far this year are warmest on record locally and nationally, and it’s not even close. Year-to-date temperatures are on an entirely different level from past record-setting years.

The national year-to-date average temperature is 4.3 degrees above normal, 1.1 degree above the second warmest year on record: 1988.
..and if they are right..this is just the beginning..sometime in our future, IF this proves true..regular drinking water could become a big concern as lakes etc start to dry up, way in the future i hope
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It was a honest mistake so sry but what did i do to you??
Quoting Patrap:
All images have a source page.

Always identify a pic for continuity and this never occurs been my sperience.
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Published on Aug 8, 2012 by AssociatedPress

Ernesto has now weakened to a tropical storm as it spins over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto's winds are near 70 mph, but it's likely to become a hurricane again when it moves into the Bay of Campeche. (Aug. 8)

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It coming now

This MJO pass should boost Nino a bit..The pattern will change when the trough comes down.The GFS actually has a cut off low over the Mid_South by the weekend. Check out this loop. Notice all the swirls and the big one N.E of the Bahamas..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21180
Quoting jascott1967:


He wrote in an earlier post that the pics were from a google search of hurricane ernesto damage. So I google searched, checked images, and sure enough there were the pics he posted.

It could have been an honest mistake and the worse crime he did was posting the most morbid and destructive pics he thought were of ernestos damage.

Of course I don't know him as well as some here do.


I think he has Asperger's. That was the info about him a year or two ago.
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All images have a source page.

Always identify a pic for continuity and this never occurs been my sperience.
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Went back and looked at the 12Z Euro to see if the Euro has any vort in the Gulf to support the CMC well it does. This are near PR now moves into the SE Gulf then up across N FL this weekend out ahead of a stalled front.


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Quoting MississippiWx:
I see that recon has cancelled missions back into Ernesto. Any intensity adjustments will be made from satellite alone. Bummer.
They must think there is not enough time over water to warrant a look....
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDTIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 11/1800Z NEAR 13N 56W.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Some people just have a better sense of direction than others, I guess!
I have a friend who I take on numerous car trips. Her statement is ,sadly, very true. She states that if we have not back tracked, we haven't arrived yet. And of course, I am the one driving. LOL It's from living at the end of US1 and told the road goes north when it really goes east. Has messed me up all my life!
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Quoting Patrap:


If you quote those images,,,in the comment box, one can see the HTML source.

Those images were posted by aussiestorm here last night.

Those are 2 images, and one dont find 2 images stacked in any Google image source last I checked.


One can take any image by quoting it and taking the HTML code out...and re-posting it, as that individual did.
those pics come up in google search for ernesto damage..almost posted them too
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I see that recon has cancelled missions back into Ernesto. Any intensity adjustments will be made from satellite alone. Bummer.

Edit: Still a chance.

4. REMARKS: FLIGHTS LISTED FOR ERNESTO ON TCPOD
12-081 MAY STILL BE FLOWN.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting jascott1967:


He wrote in an earlier post that the pics were from a google search of hurricane ernesto damage. So I google searched, checked images, and sure enough there were the pics he posted.

It could have been an honest mistake and the worse crime he did was posting the most morbid and destructive pics he thought were of ernestos damage.

Of course I don't know him as well as some here do.


If you quote those images,,,in the comment box, one can see the HTML source.

Those images were posted by aussiestorm here last night.

Those are 2 images, and one dont find 2 images stacked in any Google image source last I checked.


One can take any image by quoting it and taking the HTML code out...and re-posting it, as that individual did.
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Quoting Patrap:
92L



Looking good Pat.
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Quoting jascott1967:


He wrote in an earlier post that the pics were from a google search of hurricane ernesto damage. So I google searched, checked images, and sure enough there were the pics he posted.

It could have been an honest mistake and the worse crime he did was posting the most morbid and destructive pics he thought were of ernestos damage.

Of course I don't know him as well as some here do.


See my most recent post. The captions made it clear they were not Ernesto pictures.
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THX man and it was a honest mistake so sry all
Quoting jascott1967:


He wrote in an earlier post that the pics were from a google search of hurricane ernesto damage. So I google searched, checked images, and sure enough there were the pics he posted.

It could have been an honest mistake and the worse crime he did was posting the most morbid and destructive pics he thought were of ernestos damage.

Of course I don't know him as well as some here do.
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Quoting ncstorm:
well it looks like the GFS has made up its mind where its going



Basically the same path as Ernesto so I am guessing the GFS believes it will be weak for most of it's "life".
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thanks reed.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.