Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.
Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.
92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.
A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't know so much that I would agree with the BAMM...what explanation do you give to the GFS? at its current state I would tend to agree more with the BAMS
XD, AH el palito a la ene se llama virgulilla
Exactly, go 92L move WNW/NW!
Why gone?
Not sure if it would be a "treat" but could def be a "threat"....sorry I had to!! LOL!
Coordinates: 18.9667N 92.3167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,445 meters (~ 4,741 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 993.9 mb (~ 29.35 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 18 knots (From the NE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
This is why.
Grothar. I have noticed many times you often post the huuricane center information or other things before they are released. And yet make like a joke of it. Would you mind sharing with us how you come by this?
For real?????
Where did you lift that from?
That is disturbing....lol
Lucky guess.
Don't worry, Deborah Mardorell said this morning 92L didn't have a chance..LOL
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 89 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 93.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25.3 kts
Exactly.
Things are still ultimately the same from when Ernesto moved through the Caribbean.
Another negative factor is that 92L is a relatively small system at the moment. If it doesn't grow, the TUTT will destroy this.
I wouldn't call stewart an aggressor...he just tends to put it out there like it is. Avila does have a tendency to be more conservative. Stewart does have some conservativism as well...but when he's being modest he also tends to leave something in implication expressing his progressivism.
If it moves north of the islands, it'll more than likely degenerate into an open wave as soon as it interacts with the TUTT -- with the possibility of regeneration in the Bahamas region. If it goes the weaker Caribbean route, expect an Ernesto repeat.
The promblem is a ULL in the north of the storm
Hydrus do you think it also has anything to do with the shape of the coast spinning it up faster.
The convection of Ernesto is rapidly wrapping around the center, giving the appearance of a NW motion.
Despite the optical illusion, he is not moving much at all, and that is a concern. He really needs to get moving. Model concensus or not...another trough coming...a big one. LINK
Not really... Shear is generally lowering in front of 92L:
Doesn't look like it will get above around 20kts in the probable path of 92L.
what does that mean??
lol
That trough is already moving in. Ernesto may need to get going. By Friday, Temps in Kentucky will be September chilly...weather in the 70's...Something not seen since early April.
If it's like the Florence's I know, it will degenerate first. P.S. That actually is my middle name.
Ah...
Yes, I heard that and was like...
Lets see what she says tomorrow. XD
Couldn't take another one, eh Wash? LOL
Then there is that anticyclone over it...
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