TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop
Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
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Enestor
El Niño is determined by anomalies not current water temps.
I totaly agree with EX TD 7 going to regenerate I think its starting point for it to get going is 65W-66W its uphill from there
Oh, you mean that little cold anomaly at the coast?
Takes more than that to make a Modiki. Still it makes you wonder why is it there.
Wow you think that was a great post? He basically told everyone on this blog that we are not allowed to have discussions on the tropics unless we agree with the NHC
screw that
Ernesto was way better than debby downer!...:)
Was 102 when before the storms hit....now 78..........whoooooooooo doggiesssssssss
US National Weather Service Miami Florida
After a wet day for the east coast metro areas, sunlight tries to peek out over the top of another heavy rainmaker in central Miami-Dade County.
Miami International Airport received 3.35" today (as of 9pm) -- toppling the old record for the date of 2.35" set in 1984. Palm Beach International had an even wetter day today... but not quite enough to clench a record. As of 9pm, 4.57" was recorded at PBI... the record for the date is 5.15" from 1931.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IS NO LONGER TRACKABLE. ERNESTO NOW CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...IT WILL ACQUIRE A NEW DEPRESSION NUMBER...OR A NEW NAME IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
ERNESTO.
That was pretty clear, but...
Waters are cooling in the area because it is winter in the southern hemisphere, for example:
But what is used to determine the strength of an El Niño are temperatures anomalies in said waters, not the current water temps.
It was pretty chilly this morning across Wisconsin this morning. A few 38 degrees were reported from PWS. Otherwise, it was a cool fall morning here. Hope fall doesn't come too early.
Now we are talking about two different things, I'm talking about current anomalies, you are talking about forecasts.
Even if they change their mind in post-season, they can't just rename the "H" storm "Ernesto", then revert all the EPAC names from "I" onward to the previous name.
The tornado was moving at maximum wind speeds of about 85 miles per hour in Suffolk County Friday afternoon. The National Weather Service says it touched down near Great River and traveled about 4.5 miles north across Ronkonkoma and into Bohemia, a hamlet in the town of Islip.
The tornado was about 150 yards wide.
The worst damage occurred in Bohemia at about 2 p.m. Several trees were uprooted and fell onto cars, power lines and houses.
Eyewitnesses reported the tornado moving north along the Connequot River. There are no reports of injuries.
Newsday reported that Nassau County police responded to a report of a tree falling into a house in the town of Hempstead.
You got a link to the models? Kinda want to check it out. :)
It is normal for the temps to go down in the area around this time, what is to be considered is just how much are they above normal.
Seems Nino area 4 is the most neutral of them all.
Yeah... No. If I wanna forecast, I'm gonna forecast. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Oh well. But I dang sure won't stop because someone says that I'm not as good as the pros. Because I wonder how the pros got their start? Oh, yeah, probably by drawing weather forecasts and showing them to friends and family. And that's what I'm gonna do, one day, is be one of the pros. And I'll be sure to come by here one day and let you all know when that happens.
I think that's the best post I've ever seen from you, Geek.
I like your weather better, I am on 6 days straight over 100 and my water cooler isn't working. Having to use the AC too much.
Thanks man!
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