TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop
Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index
Interesting.
Yes i was keeping my fingers crossed that won't happen but it seems the tail of ex-TD 7 could lash the island tonight.
It isn't a tropical cyclone so you don't have worry now lol
Model consistency only a week out does grab my attention.
Anyways, the GFS is showing many tropical waves with the chance to develop - ex-TD7 developing in the Gulf thanks to a weakness in the ridge, 93L managing to develop into a Tropical Storm and several more tropical waves developing off the coast of Africa. El Nino is never a guaranteed season killer until October, right now we're heading right for the peak. Everything is telling me that we're facing a good chance of several Cape Verde systems by the end of August. We're not entering a quite phase by any means - we're entering the real and dangerous part of Hurricane season.
One thing though is that a -NAO phase will be dominate over the Atlantic, leading to a weaker yet more southern A/B high, that will allow the chance for re-curvature, but in the event that timing is against us - troughs not arriving on time there is a chance that well.. we could be in for some interesting times ahead. I have that feeling I did before Irene happened that something bad might happen, I just can't see us going an incredible 7 years without a major landfall (if you really honestly believe that Ike wasn't a major hurricane.}
In short, watch TD-7 as there is a small chance that the trough will be able to pull the system towards the Gulf and we could see it become a weak TS, but I doubt anything more. 93L also bares watching as well to become a threat down range. We're at 6-2-0, very impressive numbers for mid-August and the ride has just begun.
It only takes one. Timing is key, we stress this cliche fact again and again because it is true.
not that there is anything wrong with that
lol
Thanks! I try not to get jumbled into the many technicalities of forecasting and just try to give basic understanding to people who are new here.
I was talking to my brother about this yesterday. There were a total of 7 major hurricane landfalls in the lower 48 in 2004-2005 alone. If you were to spread those numbers over subsequent years to present, the overall trend does not seem all that unusual. In fact, 7 majors in 7 years is still above the long-term average.
niether
there is curently a upper level anticyclone on EX-TD 7 lower half moving WNW upper level shear becoming favorable because of this the shear accociated with the ULL in the atlantic is moving WNW-NNW out of its way so no I don't think it will merge and no I do not think it will take convection away but maybe help out flow
For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.
Oh um, I mean... *whistles*
Either a freaky coincidence in the movement of clouds or the anticyclone above it is really strong providing such awesome ventilation that it seems to be spinning the wrong way...
For the sake of everyone's sanity lets hope they don't send it to Texas! Lol.
True, but we've really been seeing Central America get hammered with storms for over half a decade now, while sheltering into a false sense of security that 2004-2005 is all we're ever going to get. A lot of those countries are very poor that have been slammed and really have gotten a cold shoulder in the media. At least in America, we are able to avoid minimum loss of life with organized evacuations, even though I would much, much rather a storm go away from land period. Property can be repaired, but lives cannot be brought back and we're all human.
hmm maybe that wave stuck to long too clost to the equater probable thinks it in the S Hem.
This usually happens,but on saturated grounds nothing good can come out of this rain.
XD
Actually coming off fairly north around 15N. Will be interesting to see if it tries to develop.
Although the GFS seems to think it will die in SAL, moistening the environment for the next one.
The SSTs are STEAMING right now in the Gulf and shear hasn't been a problem.
Oh yeah I know. Not wishing a storm on anybody else. And a well placed tropical storm could do some good. I was just talking about the whole Debby model battle. :)
Viewing: 1051 - 1101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index