Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting kmanislander:


The behaviour on the blog is inversely proportional to tropical storm activity.

You can set a watch by it

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wash......... Trust me friend.. Not fun at all... As a very young girl I was in the Xenia Ohio tornado April 3,1974, then moved to Florida... Was on the edge of Andrew August 1992, then was in Francis and Jeanne 2004...... Then Wilma 2005... I tell all of my friends "Don't follow me" The tornado and Wilma both had me thinking about death..... Not fun .

Amen. Wishcasters just have a sickness I keep telling myself. It keeps me from going crazy on them.

I was without power in my neighborhood for 6 months after Andrew. I was in the middle of Cutler Ridge in south Dade. I know what the power of 165 mph sustained winds can do, and its not fun to think you are going to die for 4 hours of storm, and then in the aftermath wished you had died because of the nightmare I lived afterwards.

I had to even shoot someone to protect my property. I've never lost that guilty feeling even though it was in self-defense.

Not my fault you had to go through Andrew.That's where you moved that's where you wanted to live.Just have to go through the consequences of living in south Florida which is known for hurricane alley.How does that make me a wishcaster for wanting me myself and I to go through a storm only?..I didn't say I wanted death or destruction.

If anyone on this blog thinks the GFS has a good handle on these CV storms that its shows going in circles is sadly mistaken..watch the runs shift back more west..

End of the 12z GFS run... Lots of recurve action:

Quoting washingtonian115:
Not my fault you had to go through Andrew.That's where you moved that's where you wanted to live.Just have to go through the consequences of living in south Florida which is known for hurricane alley.How does that make me a wishcaster for wanting me myself and I to go through a storm only?..I didn't say I wanted death or destruction.

whatever Wash, let em be...I love tracking storms and the excitement of them heading towards me..I have been through at LEAST 10 storms..three of them majors..I have been without power for over three weeks in NC humidity..standing in lines in 100 degree weather for ice..having to rebuild..but yet I am still here tracking storms..you dont have to explain yourself..some will admit and some wont..

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Too bad we were so young to remember the '93 Superstorm that brought that intense line of thunderstorms and brought numerous tornadoes throughout the state. I was outside in my porch when it came through and my mom had to pull me inside because debris was flying around outside that ended up damaging our porch. When it passed our street was blocked off and they wouldn't let my dad in.

Not to mention a storm surge higher than most hurricanes!

We got the ice and loss of power..will never forget that one

Quoting ncstorm:


whatever Wash, let em be...I love tracking storms and the excitement of them heading towards me..I have been through at LEAST 10 storms..three of them majors..I have been without power for over three weeks in NC humidity..standing in lines in 100 degree weather for ice..having to rebuild..but yet I am still here tracking storms..you dont have to explain yourself..some will admit and some wont..

Well I'm glad the models at least show some action in the tropics.just what the Doctor order.Some strong cape verde storms way out to sea.

I don't ask you people for much, but I would really like it if you would read my blog. I just did. You may find it useful considering the discussions.

Go ahead, go take a look. It is brief.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Not my fault you had to go through Andrew.That's where you moved that's where you wanted to live.Just have to go through the consequences of living in south Florida which is known for hurricane alley.How does that make me a wishcaster for wanting me myself and I to go through a storm only?..I didn't say I wanted death or destruction.

+1000000. The only people on here with a sickness are those who bash the folks who are excited about hurricanes. None of us are wishing for death and/or destruction. We just admire and are in awe of these magnificent heat engines that none of us have any influence over. Blame mother nature for your situation, not your fellow weather enthusiast.

This is interesting. It's not 93L but it does match up with the area of vorticity to the South of 93L. Two separate features.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



green line is where we are in the season lots of season too come

one or two weeks and it will be totally different.

12z Euro running

whats that in the BOC? 144 hours

I think ex td7 has redeveloped a weak surface circulation.

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro running

whats that in the BOC? 144 hours

Maybe the energy of 97L?.Does seem like a possibility since the steering flow would take it in that direction.

Thanks LoneStarWeather.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
End of the 12z GFS run... Lots of recurve action:

This makes sense to have 4 storms out there nearing the peak of the hurricane season, of course it is 384 hrs. out and like always, subject to change.

Quoting stormpetrol:
I think ex td7 has redeveloped a weak surface circulation.

It is certainly looking mighty suspicious and much stronger than 6 hours ago. The vort at 850 mb has spiked up as well.

Quoting LoneStarWeather:

+1000000. The only people on here with a sickness are those who bash the folks who are excited about hurricanes. None of us are wishing for death and/or destruction. We just admire and are in awe of these magnificent heat engines that none of us have any influence over. Blame mother nature for your situation, not your fellow weather enthusiast.

I don't mind the adults so much, but the kids sometimes get to me. They don't understand what they are wishing for.

hey guys i took back my ipad 2 and got me the new ipad today and love marh better

hey guys I just look at some stuff and "tropcal wave 7's" environment is not as bad as previously thought as on new shear map it is noted that an ULAC or upper level anticyclone is now starting to develop with this system curently located on the southern half of the wave if that ULAC can build as it moves WNW then we could be looking at more than 10% of redevelopment





just saying this Could Be

also remeber I said yesterday that ULL in the atlantic would move S and the one in the NW caribbean would move NW and that an ULAC could develop well I think that could be happening

so for NOW 10% for RDEVELOPMENT
depending on what happen to the conditions later today and tomorrow that 10% could be bumped up

Quoting stormpetrol:
I think ex td7 has redeveloped a weak surface circulation.

What you are seeing is an unexpected flareup of convection. Let's see how long it lasts.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
End of the 12z GFS run... Lots of recurve action:

This is what I would call: "A ludicrously long time from now."

Quoting stormpetrol:
I think ex td7 has redeveloped a weak surface circulation.

you could be corect but for now I'll leave it as open wave

Quoting GTcooliebai:
This makes sense to have 4 storms out there nearing the peak of the hurricane season, of course it is 384 hrs. out and like always, subject to change.

Also the MJO is suppose to be over here with a strong pulse over africa.

168..l'm a adult and fully know what I'm getting into.

NC/SC is getting slammed with thunderstorms..cloud cover was supposed to inhibit convection but the sun has been showing here with some clouds most of the day..

Winds in Barbados are 22 KPH out of the South so no surface low apparently as one would expect a West wind there. Still just a sharp wind shift as seen by the HH earlier. Convection is on the rise though.

Crown Point Tobago winds from the SE @ 15 KPH

Definitely no resumption of a surface low at this time with 97L as winds here would have to also be out of the West.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I just look at some stuff and "tropcal wave 7's" environment is not as bad as previously thought as on new shear map it is noted that an ULAC or upper level anticyclone is now starting to develop with this system curently located on the southern half of the wave if that ULAC can build as it moves WNW then we could be looking at more than 10% of redevelopment





just saying this Could Be

also remeber I said yesterday that ULL in the atlantic would move S and the one in the NW caribbean would move NW and that an ULAC could develop well I think that could be happening

so for NOW 10% for RDEVELOPMENT
depending on what happen to the conditions later today and tomorrow that 10% could be bumped up

You also need to take into account the dry sinking air in front of the system.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Too bad we were so young to remember the '93 Superstorm that brought that intense line of thunderstorms and brought numerous tornadoes throughout the state. I was outside in my porch when it came through and my mom had to pull me inside because debris was flying around outside that ended up damaging our porch. When it passed our street was blocked off and they wouldn't let my dad in.

Not to mention a storm surge higher than most hurricanes!

I was in the 1993 superstorm derecho in Pasco County, Florida. We were not expecting it. No one mentioned it earlier that day. It had been the most normal day and absolutely beautiful in the mid-80's. Around 10 p.m. that night we heard the warnings from the Weather Channel and all hell broke loose about midnight or just thereafter. It was worse than any hurricane I've been through. We had no time to prepare at all, and I think that made it so much worse.

NWS, wilmington, NC

they must have been reading this blog lately..the models dont have a handle on the severe weather threat

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:25 PM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE POPS MAINLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM ARE
BULLISH ON THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THE MAIN 200MB JET
ROTATES PERFECTLY ACROSS THE REGION FOR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS AND WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM LIKE A LOGICAL CHOICE.
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE CATALYST FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL NOWCAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A MORE
GENERALLY 80-90 POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MAINTAINED A STRATEGY OF GOING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

Conditions ahead of ex td7 are alot less hostile for redevelopment than they are now , just my opinion though, I've seen storms die out in this area only to strengthen again central caribbean.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Conditions ahead of ex td7 are alot less hostile for redevelopment than they are now , just my opinion though, I've seen storms die out in this area only to strengthen again central caribbean.

Never say never but conditions also dry as a bone

For all of us that were calling these "pre-Gordon" and "pre-Helene" days ago...bad to count chickens before they're hatched.

hey wash I suggest if you want to get hit by a storm that you move to a more hurricane prone area. We don't need DC being hit with a storm. I mean how would the politicians get anything done?....lol

Quoting GTcooliebai:
The GFS has been on and off with development of Cape Verde Waves so far which leads me to believe that we might not have a very active Cape Verde Season which is kind of dangerous because it leads to more home grown development that have a higher chance of making landfall. We'll see though because the peak of the hurricane season is not until the 2nd week of Sept. which is still a month away.

I'm wondering why you think that an inactive CV season would lead to a more active home grown season. Your reasoning please.

Quoting Grothar:



I don't ask you people for much, but I would really like it if you would read my blog. I just did. You may find it useful considering the discussions.

Go ahead, go take a look. It is brief.

nice blog gro, you should have been a teacher.

Quoting WoodyFL:


nice blog gro, you should have been a teacher.

Very funny! :)

Quoting 954FtLCane:
hey wash I suggest if you want to get hit by a storm that you move to a more hurricane prone area. We don't need DC being hit with a storm. I mean how would the politicians get anything done?....lol

hey 954, Getting those heavy rains right now?

Quoting Grothar:



Very funny! :)

not passed teaching fifth graders though:P

ncstorm as a wishcaster?? Never have I read ncstorm wishcasting. Pretty sick though being without power for six months after Andrew. Like you said ncstorm a few days ago: We all watch here for the big one, we get excited when it happens, we don't want destruction; but it's hard to turn away while it's happening. It's quite possible to pray for those in the path of and still watch in awe when the cane does what it's going to do anyway; irregardless of what we think or feel. I feel horrible for anyone who's ever suffered through a major. My folks live on the east coast of Florida. They've been there for about five years now. They think the big one, literally, can't or won't hit them. They went through the eye wall of Beryl this year and got tapped a little by Debbie, which gave them a false sense of security during named storms. They've had a few false alarms where they boarded up and left, so I doubt they'd leave in a major now. They are seven miles from the sea, they think that's far enough to avoid any surge. Talk about a double face palm. ncstorm is a very quality member here imo.

Where is 97L?

Quoting Grothar:



I don't ask you people for much, but I would really like it if you would read my blog. I just did. You may find it useful considering the discussions.

Go ahead, go take a look. It is brief.

That blog is exactly correct. The hard part of psychological aspects is getting people to see their own behavior in an objective light.

Quoting aislinnpaps:


I don't mind the adults so much, but the kids sometimes get to me. They don't understand what they are wishing for.

And most probably didn't even pay for the computer they play on....

Trough to Mid-Upper Level Low interaction will be interesting:

nice blob now south of fla is it moving north

Quoting Grothar:


hey 954, Getting those heavy rains right now?

Yep,nice cool and refreshing! How's bout u? BTW I didn't find any bugs on my trees this morning.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I just look at some stuff and "tropcal wave 7's" environment is not as bad as previously thought as on new shear map it is noted that an ULAC or upper level anticyclone is now starting to develop with this system curently located on the southern half of the wave if that ULAC can build as it moves WNW then we could be looking at more than 10% of redevelopment





just saying this Could Be

also remeber I said yesterday that ULL in the atlantic would move S and the one in the NW caribbean would move NW and that an ULAC could develop well I think that could be happening

so for NOW 10% for RDEVELOPMENT
depending on what happen to the conditions later today and tomorrow that 10% could be bumped up

WKC, the blob over Grenada and Venezuela looks better than the leftovers from TD7. I suspect a 10% chance of redevelopment is being generous. I've sailed through many a tropical wave that looked more threatening than what I see on the satellite now.

Quoting unknowncomic:
one or two weeks and it will be totally different.

Just curious.Do you have a brown paper bag over your head with the eyes cut out........Do youknow Chuck Barris.........Do you know what a gong is?

Quoting weatherh98:
not passed teaching fifth graders though:P

:)

Weren't some of the models earlier in Aug pointing at storm development between the 17 and 23 or 24? I think it will heat up as the month goes on not to mention storms around Labor Day. Sept can be a bear.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just curious.Do you have a brown paper bag over your head with the eyes cut out........Do youknow Chuck Barris.........Do you know what a gong is?

He worked for the CIA you know.