TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1186 - 1136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Quoting aspectre:
AL, 07, 2012081118, 133N, 599W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081200, 133N, 614W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081206, 137N, 629W, 25, 1011, WV

YES about time

thank you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
Quoting aspectre:
1179 aislinnpaps: I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation

Internet access via cell-phone.


aspectre, I know you usually do use punctuation, no problem! Because it was you, I did read yours. *S* It's the small paragraphs of those that don't think they need to that are seemingly becoming popular.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
AL, 07, 2012081112, 133N, 579W, 30, 1011, DB
AL, 07, 2012081118, 133N, 599W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081200, 133N, 614W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081206, 137N, 629W, 25, 1011, WV
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveAL07 for 12August6pmGMT
MinimumPressure was 1011millibars
MaxSusWinds was 25knots(29mph)46km/h
Vector was 285.4*WNWest@17.4mph(28km/h)

MQS-Mustique :: SVD-St.Vincent :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SDQ-SantoDomingo

Copy&paste svd, mqs, 12.834n61.193w, bgi, 13.335n59.613w-13.375n59.616w, 13.085n59.462w, slu-13.89n60.883w, 13.708n60.947w-13.555n60.942w, sdq, 13.3n57.9w-13.3n59.9w, 13.3n59.9w-13.3n61.4w, 13.3n61.4w-13.7n62.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thanks! I try not to get jumbled into the many technicalities of forecasting and just try to give basic understanding to people who are new here.
....and we appreciate your efforts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1179 aislinnpaps: I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation

Internet access via cell-phone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Little bit of Gulf action in 10 days on the 6z GFS:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
Good morning. Looks like we're about to get another West Pac storm.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 131.3E TO 17.3N 125.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 134.0E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND A PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTED BY A 120108Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS, HAS EMERGED. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE NOTICEABLY DEEPENED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 28-30 CELSIUS, ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE ONGOING
CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130700Z. //
NNNN

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
Morning all. I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation. I have to admit to skipping over those. Another hot day here in Louisiana.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
been.a.nice.summer.e.cen.fl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Disco

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO START LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND
THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT TREND
CONTINUING INTO MID- WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Still winter down here, 19 days to go til Spring.

cool so how was winter so far

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
1173. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone


Mostly Cloudy
82°F
28°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.97 in (1014.6 mb)
Dewpoint80°F (27°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index93°F (34°C)

Last Update on 12 Aug 5:53 am EDT

Good morning to everyone and Largo I don't think there's any doubt that it's going to be hot today already a heat index of 93 at 5:53am LOL!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
with the return of the MJO to our region and the parade of Twaves over africa and what is seen heading for the continent from the indian ocean it appears we may be heading for a torrid 8 wks in the tropical atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
surface map is indicating that a low pressure is forming with EX-TD7

notice the 12 isobar look at it compaired to the wave and the surface obs would indicate curculiation however maybe open on SW and S side
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
morning
wave exiting the african coast southeast of the cape verdes could end up being the next invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys hey Aussie btw down by you its what now spring summer or still winter


anyway EX-TD7 is doing well convection starting up in the E caribbean shear is on the decrease on top a bit slower speed in front and there may be some sort of circulation with it just waiting for a few more visible images (sunlit images)


Still winter down here, 19 days to go til Spring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning guys hey Aussie btw down by you its what now spring summer or still winter


anyway EX-TD7 is doing well convection starting up in the E caribbean shear is on the decrease on top a bit slower speed in front and there may be some sort of circulation with it just waiting for a few more visible images (sunlit images)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Off to bed guys!

I leave you with this one thought...

exTD7 is NOT Ernesto Part Deux

Ernesto was lucky he was Big compared ti ex-td7. If ex-td7 had of been bigger, it might of been able to survive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
697 winter123: Can someone please explain to me why TD 8E is not named "TD Ernesto"?
700 TropicalAnalystwx13: The NHC states that the low-level circulation dissipated over Mexico.


Lack of a low-level pathway.


706 GTcooliebai Oh yeah wikipedia is on our side. Ernesto is still active. Ernesto-Hector.

Our side writes the hurricane wiki.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Morning everyone, today's my b-day and the day I go out of town. Seems like not too much stuff weather wise should happen in the next 5 days but if I see anything exciting cool t-storm/waterspout I'll take a picture.
Happy Birthday wx.Enjoy your day
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5930
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone
Largo... According to the local news West Palm Beach set a new record for August 11th with 4.35 inches of rain... Quite a storm in the evening.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5930
Morning everyone, today's my b-day and the day I go out of town. Seems like not too much stuff weather wise should happen in the next 5 days but if I see anything exciting cool t-storm/waterspout I'll take a picture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1162. LargoFl
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1161. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAY AND SEA
BREEZES TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS
WHICH CAN CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES ON THE ROADWAYS AND MINOR URBAN
FLOODING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AGAIN TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

PRC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder how many systems on average, that go into Central America, are able to cross over? I'd love to see some stats.

On another subject, this cool air aloft over the Easter Central U.S. should increase the vertical instability over the GOM and the Northwestern Caribbean, and just in time for the MJO pulse.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hector/Ernesto:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wassup good blog i see td 7 gone anything really popping? and where the ATL friend MJO?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
I think it would move into CA but if it can reach the northern gulf we might need to watch it.


i agree plus i watched levi's breakdown and thats what the long range models wanna do with td-7 (certainly not sticking up for long range models) but they are suggesting w/ mjo swing later in the month + remnants + other possible variables (a strong low to the east of the GOM as a close but no cigar fish storm that opens up the GOM) it will be interesting.

also hoping for all of you in texas and in the midwest....let's pray for monsoonal convection coming up from ex-ernesto to stop your drought for gosh sakes......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting odinslightning:
can ex td-7 fend off the dry air and slow down enough to gain strength? and if it can form something potent.....what would the trough do that is expected to drop down from canada clear into alabama later this week?
I think it would move into CA but if it can reach the northern gulf we might need to watch it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can ex td-7 fend off the dry air and slow down enough to gain strength? and if it can form something potent.....what would the trough do that is expected to drop down from canada clear into alabama later this week?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm sorry.
Don`t worry was a long time ago I am worried that a storm is going to come near us and cause heavy rain people is forgetting what happen with Mitch after Ernesto pass near here and just leave a little of rain people are thinking that hurricanes would not be that much of a problem like before 7 out of 10 people in here say they will not evacuate and loose their things that is why some people die with td 16 in 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

I could help you with the graphics and whatnot.


I would love that I'm thinking I would have to download a program that would let me overlap my video with graphics
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well I haven't learned how to put graphics on it yet and stuff its a work in progress..it was mostly an experimental thing to see if it would work
I could help you with the graphics and whatnot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

No I didn't. I didn't even know you did video forecasts. Let me go check out that.


Well I haven't learned how to put graphics on it yet and stuff its a work in progress..it was mostly an experimental thing to see if it would work
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting louisianaboy444:


I agree i'm just being crazy...did you see my brief video forecast today on facebook?
No I didn't. I didn't even know you did video forecasts. Let me go check out that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

But where there's consensus, there's potential. Besides, it's not like Gulf storms even have a chance to recurve. Also, we're in an El Nino year, so if we're going to get a chase, it's most likely going to come from a homegrown storm like that one.


I agree i'm just being crazy...did you see my brief video forecast today on facebook?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting allancalderini:
I didn`t loose family with Mitch but my Mom loose two cousins with hurricane Fifi in 1974.
I'm sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting louisianaboy444:


Only one closed isobar...YAWN hahahah
But where there's consensus, there's potential. Besides, it's not like Gulf storms even have a chance to recurve. Also, we're in an El Nino year, so if we're going to get a chase, it's most likely going to come from a homegrown storm like that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Indeed. I'm sure that's something that the families of the 20,000+ people that were killed by Mitch are quite cognizant of.
I didn`t loose family with Mitch but my Mom loose two cousins with hurricane Fifi in 1974.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.

Oh um, I mean... *whistles*


Only one closed isobar...YAWN hahahah
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting CybrTeddy:

Property can be repaired, but lives cannot be brought back and we're all human.
Indeed. I'm sure that's something that the families of the 20,000+ people that were killed by Mitch are quite cognizant of.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once again I blog to utter nothingness. Oh well, enjoy it anyway. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Canadien takes Ex TD 7 TO Belize
Does it develop it ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Hector is intensifying and I doubt it is just a minimal tropical storm anymore.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1140. JLPR2
Well, I'm out as well.

Goodnight!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it would help alot that was one of the things that stoped RI with ernesto

now I am really gone I don't think I can even make it to the bed i'll just pass out sleeping on the ground


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Slowing down would help Ex-TD 7.

it would help alot that was one of the things that stoped RI with ernesto

now I am really gone I don't think I can even make it to the bed i'll just pass out sleeping on the ground
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
1137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JLPR2:
At 2am we continue with a pair of 10s.



and with that post later all be back in the am

good night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1136. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I still kinda disagree with the 10% for EX-TD 7 kinda cause I think it will start to get stronger by tomorrow afternoon by that time it should be higher


I remember we were arguing about the steering speeds well on the new steering map (0300) utc show speeds droping from 65-66W so expect decrease in forward speed

anyway I am off to bead and I'll be up earlerer in the morn


Slowing down would help Ex-TD 7.
Sleep well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1186 - 1136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.