Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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400. BahaHurican 5:09 PM EDT on August 12, 2012
This is getting to be redikilus...
It's been declared dead with a 10% chance of digging it's way up through 6 ft.
It's still nothing more than a zombie wave under hostile conditions.
1009.4mb
well well well here we go again
late last night and this morning and today I said it will start to make a comeback and start up near 71W-73W
yes NHC give it 10% now or (at 2pm today)
looking at WV dry air is dying out infront of the system and it is not getting sheared as much as it been since it was degenerated till mid-morning this morning yes there is still a bit of shear but I would not say there is enought to stop redevelopment the shear that is there now is more like helping with outflow so thats why you see the NE shearing look
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 75 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 15.5 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 15.5 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Screencapped for future reference.
Link
lots of rain overnight from the remnants of td7 causing quite a bit of damage on the island of Dominica. landslides, flooding and wind damage to crops on the east coast of the island.
and by the looks of this radar, there is more rain1 to come
here ya go baha:
596. wunderkidcayman 6:40 PM CDT on August 11, 2012 +0
I think that for EX-TD 7 will or should I say could really get restarted once it hits the 65-66W line
Hi there, took a break to watch the PGA Championship.
Looks like the wave is fanning out some but the TUTT that is retrograding to the West is still throwing up high shear values ahead of it.
thank you
no not dancing yet yes I know its been decleared dead and has 10% chance of redevelopment at 2pm today but conditions are not as hostile as before and is getting better and better and it may still be a zombie wave but it is starting to show life
hmm odd anyway what ever
Already had flo
There are so many site's you can go to to express your belief's and political affiliation...... a weather blog in my opinion IS NOT the place.....
Just my $0.02!
Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of Mexico
Ships beached in Gulfport, Mississippi.
A large, antebellum mansion destroyed by the high winds and storm surge.
Sorry to hear that.
"wunderkidcayma"
yep I agree with you
oh here on islands
well I hope you can tell me more about that before Cayman27 gets there hands on the news
but yeah relly sorry to here about your friend
Evening All.
Still gotta crank the radio every time a song comes on. Funny, it's one of the few bands that I know most every word to every song. Just heard "Hey You" on the way home. "Learning To Fly" is my all time favorite however.
I agree.. I'm just disputing wonderkid's claims that ex TD-7 is on its way to regeneration or regeneration in the central caribbean..he pointed out what I quoted about 65-66W yesterday.
thank you
if you guys want too talk political plzs take it too the weather chat
How he is not banned after last night is beyond me...
The base of the TUTT can be seen very clearly at 15 N and 75 W. The axis extends all to the way to the NE and the ULL situated near 28 N and 59 W.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
* AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF FORESTBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MUENSTER AROUND 455 PM...
LINDSAY AROUND 520 PM...
KRUM AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 530 PM...
SANGER AROUND 535 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH AROUND 545 PM...
THIS WILL IMPACT I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 477 AND 484.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
LAT...LON 3377 9718 3374 9717 3372 9711 3374 9709
3373 9706 3334 9701 3315 9729 3334 9769
3383 9744 3383 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 280DEG 18KT 3345 9756
85/NH
If I didn't like a lot of people on this blog, I would have been gone a long time ago. Really difficult to sift through garbage on here a lot of the time. A couple of other sites I use are moderated heavily and this kind of garbage doesn't happen.
Thanks .. keep us posted.
Let me know a bit closer to the time when u will be here....
Got him thanks for reminding us.
I'm really love this site, but even I'm starting to get annoyed with the lack of moderation here. The trolls are impersonating good bloggers, giving users viruses, and disrupting the weather conservation we have on here.
This is directed at Jeff Masters and the admins: Either find a way to get more moderation, or a lot of good people are leaving.
- 14:30Z ASCAT shows no circulation
- LOTS of dry air in front
- Moving too fast
- Shear is letting up, but a little too late
- Time is not on its side... it will encounter land within the next two days.
- No real model support
Taz applied for the moderator role :-)
CBS4 meteorologist Jeff Berardellis said deep tropical moisture and a southerly wind resulted in tropical downpours this weekend across many parts of South Florida.
href="http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/08/12/miami- breaks-rainfall-record/" target="_blank">Link
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