94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.
Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.
Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Farther south it forms=lessened trough effect
Weeker=lessened trough effect
It's week and moving further south. Could mean it wont feel the trough so much
Oh idk if it is or not, but the possibility is there. I have to wait and see a few days from now.
12:41 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
Yes, this sort of speculation is something I won't put in a blog post. When one considers the average error in a 5-day forecast is over 300 miles, and the storm hasn't even formed yet, any predictions of where it might go 7 days from now are speculation, not a forecast.
Jeff Masters
Yes Just a different area
No I don't think so at all...I'm pretty sure he has given his statement a lot of thought before he wrote it. It's not like he's on the blog all day making comments. I would tend to trust him a little more than alot of folks on here..
Yes, intensity 34 knots. That is from the GFS which does not have the resolution to accurately determine intensity.
AL, 94L, 2012081918_F000_146N_0384W_94L, 2012081918, 03, GFSO, 240, 280N, 828W, 34, 999
Thanks.
Big development. If you look at the loops you can actually see the center being drawn towards the thunderstorms to the south. This increases the threat to the islands and puts the center over warmer water too ....
Yes
This year? It's been favored track for storms for like the past 3 years lol
you're not so smart...lol..
Copy that.
Well warranted with the trends downstream now.
That shows the NHC is using all their available Tools for a System with Travel Plans.
Flight pattern for a supplemental high-level aircraft.
aoml.noaa.gov
Yes.
I checked the raw data.
The GFS does some weird stuff with the intensity, but even though it doesn't LOOK like a hurricane on the map, it actually is a strong TS or weak hurricane on much of the track points after the Lesser Antilles.
Yes, it is semantics, but it is their call what that semantics is. And it seems their precedent says LLCs get new names, while MLCs get to keep them. UNLESS it's a basin cross.
Wonder what else we have out there in terms of precedents for this kinda thing...
might be able to bring some nice rain to central tx where they NEED it..
I would like to add:
And not just because he has a Doctorate in Meteorology, it is his blog, and he has been doing this successfully for a very long time.
And no, they're not going to magically lower WKC.
In that case, it would be nice to see you "speculate" more often in the blog comments. "Yucatan to Canada" is not our favorite thing to hear from our Director of Meteorology.
ok. which means that less of interaction with Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica meaning stronger storm. which mean Higher chances for a Major hurricane to form from this in the NW caribbean
Joyce in GOM
Kirk following Isaac
or the other way around...
that isn't the atcf coordinates, that is the gfs forecast model coordinates out 240 hours
Which means it begins poleward
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming north after midnight.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. North winds around 5 mph.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Thursday Through Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Lows in the upper 70s.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s.
Saturday Through Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Lows in the upper 70s.
Earlier today he says anywhere from the Yucatan to Canada and now he singles out the Yucatan. That surprises me.
?? anyway....moving on with the blog..bye
Not everyone has time to reread 2000 comments, people have busy lives outside of the blog.
Pay it forward!
GFS
the G storm is down too 70KT
AL, 08, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 364N, 263W, 70, 980, HU,
When I listened to Max Mayfield speak the other day, he mentioned that there is a good reason for the models - they can take so much data into consideration that it is impossible for a human to do it fast enough. However, you (or the human) has to analyze WHAT the models are telling you and why, sometimes they are able 'see' and interpolate, what we cannot. In this case, they could be seeing something that we are not... The future will tell us for sure.
Just my un-scientific .02.
I would hate playing Scrabble with the NHC... and those are good, rigid rules, but what 95 does has a lot to do with its history, which, blah blah blah what's this about Dr. Jeff sending TX 94L instead? :)
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