Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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1287. guygee
4:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting hcubed:
Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?
The title of the paper you cited is:
"A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability-View from the Beach".

Big difference between a "View from the Beach" and the entire Arctic Ocean. Earth has only two poles, and one of them is in the Arctic Ocean, so that makes this larger region very important for climate in the Northern Hemisphere. A view from the beach is very local in comparison.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1286. MahFL
4:27 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda needs to prepare for a Cat.3


They already have, new houses there are rated to 150 mph.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3572
1285. GetReal
3:39 PM GMT on September 05, 2012



90L appears to be spinning up a "center" approximately 30 miles south of Gulf Breeze, Fl., heading south for now.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1284. RTSplayer
3:37 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
90L is now analyzed at 1010mb, cauze it's over land and they got instruments on it.

Steering:

1000mb



990mb




It looks like 90L is going to merge with the naked LLC in the central gulf (any moment now) and will back up into the central or east-central gulf and get a head of steam worked up, before turning northeast and hitting Florida.


What the heck, it's the Gulf; I'll give it mid-level TS at least for the "landfall".
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1283. LAlurker
3:26 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting CloudGatherer:


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?

When Ivan made the loop and re-entered the Gulf, it was still called Ivan, but it was trackable all the time, they are saying this one will not be re-named Isaac but probably Nadine. When Ivan revisited the Gulf it had a westerly track - to TX, I think.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1282. dabirds
3:25 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
OK, just saw on Post Dispatch site, in article about storms passing through now, that they are now forecasting a high of 101 w/ 108 HI for StL - wow! Mets and Cards have to be happy they have a day game. At least it's only 70 at the moment there. Seems to be pushing a blob from the SW int the area behind the line that just pushed through to the SE. Guess after it gets through and sun pops it will heat up. Hope it stalls before it gets here. Get any drops from this ILwthr? Bet we got at least an inch.

90L is making the guy in my avatar want to sing, but I'll hold him off for now.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 750
1281. LAlurker
3:23 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting AegirsGal:
Has anyone else seen this?
Link
It would seem that Hurricane Isaac got in to the archeological salvage business for a minute.

Ship gets uncovered with almost every significant storm in the Gulf, dating back at least to Camille, 1969. I've seen it after Ivan, Gustav, Ike, Isaac. The neighborhoosd covers it back up with sand after they get tired of all the attention from visitors - parking problems, etc.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1280. GeorgiaStormz
3:20 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO..


I think the NHC should be in school, and I should be at the NHC
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732
1279. RTSplayer
3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh-oh:

7.9


000
WECA41 PHEB 051447
TSUCAX

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1447 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A CARIBBEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

BRAZIL / BARBADOS / TRINIDAD TOBAGO / FRENCH GUIANA /
SAINT LUCIA / MARTINIQUE / ST VINCENT / DOMINICA / BARBUDA /
GUADELOUPE / MONTSERRAT / ANTIGUA / SAINT KITTS / ANGUILLA /
GRENADA / SAINT MARTIN / SAINT MAARTEN / DOMINICAN REP /
TURKS N CAICOS / BONAIRE / CURACAO / BAHAMAS / VENEZUELA /
HAITI / BERMUDA / SURINAME / ARUBA / CUBA / GUYANA / COLOMBIA /
JAMAICA / GRAND CAYMAN / CAYMAN BRAC / PANAMA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS / COSTA RICA / BELIZE / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.9


yeah, that's gonna leave a mark.

Hope nobody got/gets hurt.

7.9 initial magnitude is 22.6 times more powerful than the 7.0 Haiti Quake....
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1278. sar2401
3:16 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Gro, that model run pretty well matches my thinking. The blob will meander until it's south of the Big Bend area, then get picked up by the steering currents and go over Florida and into the Atlantic. I have no clue as to if it remains a blob or develops into something more. What's your "non-forecast"? :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1277. RTSplayer
3:13 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting SLU:
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7�N 62.8�W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph



It's not stacked guys.

The mid-level circulation is still out of alignment by like 1/3rd of it's diameter.

Shear is dropping, so it will fix itself over the next 12 to 24, but the bigger issue is that the upper level environment still has a long way to go to develop a full anti-cyclone.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1276. sar2401
3:11 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting AegirsGal:
The tectonic plates off Costa Rica and Western Pacific along Central and South America are subduction, yes?


Yep, one huge subduction zone, all the way up to Washington State.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1274. RTSplayer
3:11 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting CloudGatherer:
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?



DVorak Technique's margin of error is 15mb / -7mb.


The reason the error is larger on the "up" side is because the issue of kinetic energy relating to V^2 "squeezes" the margin of error for faster winds.









Quoting sonofagunn:
The quake looks to be on the Pacific Coast - why would there be a tsunami watch in the Caribbean?


Seismic waves don't care which side of a peninsula the quake happened on.

There was an 8 inch Tsunami in Lake Pontchartrain from the 8.8 magnitude Chile Quake, and that's like a sixth of the way around the planet...


It's unlikely, but you could see a few feet of tsunami action on the Caribbean side in some locations. That's enough to throw boats around, or drown children near the coast.

Edit:

I see they cancelled the warning, so they obviously aren't expecting more than a few inches. So the point is moot now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1273. seminolesfan
3:10 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Don't you get it? Only studies that support global warming are valid for global warming. That's good science.

Like the all-you-can-eat buffet; Take what you want and ignore the rest. Works so well in politics might as well apply it to the hard sciences, too!
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1272. sar2401
3:10 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting CloudGatherer:


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?


Yes, it would be Nadine. It appears to be fully over the Gulf now while still retaining its "blob" identity. There's a fair amount of convection, especially on the west side of te blob. It still looks like what we had here in Alabama over the ast three days. The low, such as it is, hasn't seemed to deepened dramatically, since it's 29.88 here in Montogmery and 29.84 from a bouy offshore. There's a weak high pressure to the north that is going to heat us up dramatically the next few days, probably forming a thermal trough over MS and AL. I have no idea what 90L will ultimately do but, since it was a big rainmaker over land, with lots of convection, it should be about the same over the Gulf. My best guess is that the blob moves east over central FL and is then absorbed in the existing trough over the east coast of FL. If the nascent low associated with the blob, which appears to be right over Pensacola, start to deepen significantly, it could be a TD at least.

This is truly a weird year. If the blob develops, how many times has an overland low ever got back in the Gulf and developed by coming straight down through MS and AL, with no other passage over water? I don't think there have been many.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1271. WxLogic
3:06 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.


At least they were quick about it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1270. Grothar
3:06 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26544
1269. AegirsGal
3:06 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
The tectonic plates off Costa Rica and Western Pacific along Central and South America are subduction, yes?
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
1268. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.


lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1267. Bluestorm5
3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.
Fail...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
1266. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1265. JasonRE
3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
What is this I see on local weather about something possibly forming by Thursday afternoon in the GOM? Is this Isaac 2? KATC futurecast information.....
Member Since: August 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
1264. Bluestorm5
3:04 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


So far this is what we know. If you paid more attention in school, you could tell us what this means.

I am paying attention... just don't understand the words my teacher is saying to the class -_- I am on because it's lunch time.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
1263. Neapolitan
3:04 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Whoopsie:

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
1262. Bluestorm5
3:04 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yes, but my family lives right near where the strike is..
Wow... I hope your family is safe in the aftermath!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
1261. WxLogic
3:03 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Early models on 90L



Initialization is good... that's where the LLC appears to be:



Around 30.3N 86.5W
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1260. LoneStarWeather
3:03 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting hcubed:


Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?

Don't you get it? Only studies that support global warming are valid for global warming. That's good science.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
1259. Bluestorm5
3:03 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
12 mi deep... that's not too deep for major damage of 7.9 quake I think...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
1258. aspectre
3:02 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie at 5Sept12pm
KXFL-PalmCoast :: BDA-Bermuda ::


The bottom kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 4th day as a TropicalStorm
The middle kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
Note the difference in the distances traveled by Leslie on its 4th, 5th, and 6th days
4th day: 204miles(329kilometres) @ ~8.5mph(13.7kmh)
5th day : 88miles (141kilometres) @ ~3.7mph ( 5.9kmh)
6th day : 60miles (097kilometres) @ ~2.5mph ( 4.0kmh)
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
4Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 340miles(548kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda
4Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
4Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 86miles(139kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 238miles(383kilometres)SWest of Bermuda
5Sept.06am: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 88miles(141kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 108miles(174kilometres)East of Bermuda

Copy&paste kxfl-29.404n81.094w, 32.387n62.5w, 31.7323n66.211w, 29.885n67.781w, 31.729n66.233w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 21.3n60.9w- 22.1n61.4w- 22.8n61.6w- 23.4n62.2w- 23.6n62.7w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w-25.0n62.6w, 25.0n62.6w-25.1n62.7w, 25.1n62.7w-25.3n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-25.6n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-32.382n62.8w, 32.368n64.647w-32.382n62.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1257. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:02 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You are in USA right now, right? I hope the damage isn't massive in Costa Rica.



yes, but my family lives right near where the strike is..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1256. Grothar
3:02 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I hate Calculus... anyway, just checking in during school's lunch. How's Leslie doing?


So far this is what we know. If you paid more attention in school, you could tell us what this means.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26544
1255. Gearsts
3:01 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
7.9

8km NE of Samara, Costa Rica

2012-09-05 14:42:09

9.931°N

85.462°W

20.0
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
1254. Bluestorm5
3:01 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
MY COUNTRY COSTA RICA JUST GOT HIT BY A 7.9 QUAKE....OMG!!!!!
You are in USA right now, right? I hope the damage isn't massive in Costa Rica.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
1253. sonofagunn
3:01 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
The quake looks to be on the Pacific Coast - why would there be a tsunami watch in the Caribbean?
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
1252. Skyepony (Mod)
3:00 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Early models on 90L



Headed right for this year's hot spot..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 38314
1251. hcubed
2:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting guygee:
Just because the climate models do not perfectly reproduce certain aspects of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) does not mean that their results are invalid. Any model output is bracketed by error bars that covers these imperfections. Also, for all we know the AO is a temporary phenomenon that just happens to have some periodicity in recent times. Human beings love to make patterns and impose periodicity where there really is none.

If you have ever been even an undergraduate college student in the sciences or engineering, and your professor let you turn in data without error estimates then you had a lazy professor.

Also note that the paper you cite is a study of a local area, not covering the entire globe. So this paper has little to no relevance to the issue of global warming.

Any questions?


Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1250. leftlink
2:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like Isaac's little sister(Nadine) wants to finish the job in Florida, as Isaac was first forecasted to go for the RNC, but Isaac had other plans... ;)


Or maybe Isaac wanted to visit Tampa the first time around, but all the hotels were booked!
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
1249. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
MY COUNTRY COSTA RICA JUST GOT HIT BY A 7.9 QUAKE....OMG!!!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1248. AegirsGal
2:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh-oh:

7.9
7.9 magnitude...geez.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
1247. Grothar
2:57 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Early models on 90L

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26544
1246. 7544
2:55 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
plane for 90l posted ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
1245. RTSplayer
2:55 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


Yes, but the interpretation vs verification of stalls and loops is not always what it appears to be.

But it is basically what any intuitive observation would imply: SW early and then NE to ENE late.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1244. NYX
2:54 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


After seeing the acrobatics Ivan did, I never rule even the most absurd forecast model out.

Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
1243. Neapolitan
2:54 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Uh-oh:

7.9


000
WECA41 PHEB 051447
TSUCAX

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1447 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A CARIBBEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

BRAZIL / BARBADOS / TRINIDAD TOBAGO / FRENCH GUIANA /
SAINT LUCIA / MARTINIQUE / ST VINCENT / DOMINICA / BARBUDA /
GUADELOUPE / MONTSERRAT / ANTIGUA / SAINT KITTS / ANGUILLA /
GRENADA / SAINT MARTIN / SAINT MAARTEN / DOMINICAN REP /
TURKS N CAICOS / BONAIRE / CURACAO / BAHAMAS / VENEZUELA /
HAITI / BERMUDA / SURINAME / ARUBA / CUBA / GUYANA / COLOMBIA /
JAMAICA / GRAND CAYMAN / CAYMAN BRAC / PANAMA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS / COSTA RICA / BELIZE / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.9
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
1242. jascott1967
2:54 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Blob Alert #4



Could use that blob in Tejas but won't happen. WTH has everything stayed East of Beaumont this year?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
1241. CloudGatherer
2:52 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting vlaming:


Even without its Isaac history, it would be pretty amazing for that storm to develop, there can't be many that came off the gulf coast and developed. And if the GFS is correct, it might hit Florida twice and end up in the Gulf again ...


If this thing develops the way the models show, it'd be Nadine, right? I'm not that strong on my naming conventions, but since the discussions haven't been talking about 'Isaac redeveloping,' I presume it'd be considered a new storm. Someone else know more?
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
1240. stormchaser19
2:52 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda needs to prepare for a Cat.3
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
1239. WxLogic
2:51 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.


Very nice... here's the NASA Surveillance drone:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1238. Grothar
2:50 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
Blob Alert #4

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26544
1237. Bluestorm5
2:49 PM GMT on September 05, 2012
I hate Calculus... anyway, just checking in during school's lunch. How's Leslie doing?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031

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