Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! It's good to be back home after a relaxing visit to the Caribbean. I must admit, though, that scraping the inch of ice off of my windshield at the airport in Detroit last night in -5 wind chill temperatures was a shock, after wading in 82 degree waters in San Juan yesterday morning!
I did keep a watchful eye on the tropics while I was in Puerto Rico, because this hurricane season is not yet over. Water temperatures are still more than 80F (26.5 C) over a large portion of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, and wind shear levels are still forecast to remain low enough to support formation of a tropical storm Epsilon before the season mercifully ends. In addition to Tropical Storm Delta, there are two areas to watch over the next week:
1) A strong non-tropical low is expected to form by Sunday in the mid-Atlantic just west of Delta's current position, and drift slowly west or west-southwest. Like Delta did, this low could remain over warm water long enough to gradually acquire a warm core and morph into a tropical storm. It is unlikely that this storm would threaten any land areas except Bermuda, the Azores, or Canary Islands.
2) The region just north of Panama may get active, as wind shear levels are expected to be low the next five days. However, there is not much moisture in the region at present, and wind shear values are expected to greatly increase over the entire Caribbean by early December. I don't expect any serious storm will develop in the Caribbean over the next week, although a weak tropical storm is a slight possibility.
Tropical Storm Delta
Delta is still hanging tough in the face of 30-40 knots of wind shear, but its days are numbered. High shear, dry air, and cooler waters will all conspire to weaken Delta over the next two days, then destroy it by Monday. The deep convection around the eye is already starting to decay, and this storm has missed its chance to become a hurricane. The remnants of Delta have the potential to bring 40 mph winds and heavy rain to the Canary Islands and Morocco early next week.
I'll be back with an update on Sunday morning--or Saturday--if something develops worth talking about.
Jeff Masters
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BB73
If you see this. Why can't the marine wind forcasters come close to the real wind. 5 to 10 kts forecast turn into 20 to 25 in the afternoon. Between that and 3 hour engine breakdown and repairs today. Real good day.
Earlier from NHC's Tropical Discussion, Caribbean Sea: "A WEAK TROUGH
IS ALONG 20N79W 16N81W 11N81.5W. THIS TROUGH REALLY IS NOT EVEN THAT NOTICEABLE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. AT LEAST THREE INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS UP TO AND INCLUDING 26/1200 UTC. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS NOW ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IS LIGHT AND APPEARS TO DISSIPATING FOR THE MOST PART."
The only area in the Caribbean where surface pressures remain relatively low is above Panama / Colombia...w/ a very slight chance of possible development thru next week, after next 48 hrs. There have been numerous small and short-lived spin-offs in that area last few weeks. But except for the one that helped form Gamma, all faded in couple days.
Just checking in and wondering if anybody is on here tonight???
:-)
:-)
BOCAT??? OMG i love cats but not that cat and I would be with my gun aswell... anyway I hope you had a great Thanksgiving... I know I did, I finally got my insurance money so I can fix my house so it want rain on the inside and leak on the outside... but it will be another 2 weeks before I can start though, maybe by Christmas yahoo...
Luoie and Lucy (my 2 cats) love going out and in all night because it is so warm...
:-)
Link
Code1 try this one ok...
Link
I thought I would stop in before I call it a night. I just noticed a couple of posts were questions posed to me. Please allow me to give my best perspective regarding each.
Trouper,
First of all, thanks so much for the kind comments. The reason I don't specify a particular year when this multidecadal cycle will come to a close is because it's impossible to know. This forecast is based upon climatology and looking at the correlations between active hurricane seasons and the many atmospheric variables that either enhance or surpress them.
In researching all of this data (William Gray At CSU being the pioneer of such study), forecasters have been able to see a definate multidecadal pattern develop that suggests that these optimum atmospheric conditions (specifically above normal sea surface temperatures)generally last between 25 and 40 years. There is no way to know for certain when this cycle will reverse itself because data records only go back roughly 155 years or so. However, the data is clear that such multidecadal cycles do exist and that we are definately in the active phase now and should be for a couple more decades. Basically it's not a matter of if we will see a transition back to atmospheric conditions (specifically below normal sea surface temperatures)that are inhibiting to above normal tropical cyclone development but when. It's simply a matter of time.
To give an example of this multidecadal cycle, the period from 1970 through 1994 saw the least number of tropical cyclones form during any 25 year period in recorded history. This corresponded with below normal to average sea surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic Basin. In contrast, the period between the late 1920s and 1969 was one of above normal tropical cyclone activity and the corresponding atmospheric conditions that helped them to occur.
Beginning with the hyperactive season of 1995 through this current season, we have seen more tropical cyclone formations during this 11 year period than any other in recorded history. Naturally, all of it coincides with well above normal sea surface temperatures that manifested themselves beginning with the 1995 season. Interestingly, the year of 1997 saw below normal tropical cyclone activity but that was a direct result of a fairly strong El Nino that developed and surpressed the activity for that one season. Therefore, we should be in a multidecadal cycle that will last no less than 25 years which would be about 2019. On the extreme side, it could last forty years from thetime it began which would conclude around the year of 2034. As with all forecasts in the complex and inexact science of meteorology, we will simply have to wait and see.:)
I'm so sorrry you had such a rough day. Please know that all of us appreciate all of the hard work you do, often times in very difficult weather conditions. To answer your question, I don't have a specific answer to why those particular forecasters misforecasted those wind speeds offshore. However, I can say that wind speeds are subject to change very quickly as a result of a small change in atmospheric conditions relative to the strength of various areas of high and low pressure. I haven't looked at any maps during the past couple of days, so I can't speak from an analysis standpoint on that specific forecast. I would assume that they must've misforecasted the intensity of an area of high pressure or lower pressure in the area which of course has a direct effect on the pressure gradient between these two large scale weather systems that cause wind in the first place.
I hope everyone in here and who visits this blog throughout the day tomorrow has a great rest of the weekend.
Thanks,
Tony
They say it is to be bad here, although we need the rain just not the bad stuff... If I were a beting man I would almost think we were in for a tornado or too, but I sure hope not... It just does not look good right now...
:-)
Have a good night and sweet dreams, and you areright we will have to see what tomorrow brings...
Supercell,
Hi how are you? I hope you are having a good night as well... As for the storms that are coming I do hope they are not too bad if you know what I mean...
:-)
We have not had any good rain since Katrina... well maybe about 1 1/2 inches of rain since Aug and this is Nov...
BB73
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005
...DELTA STRENGTHENS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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